ATL JOSEPHINE: Remnants - Discussion

[senorpepr]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=09&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=99L.INVEST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi


Looks good, looks better then Ike. Hell it looks better then Hanna. This thing looks great and has a closed LLC.

Respectfully, I must disagree. First, Hanna looks MUCH better than 99L. Also, and maybe this is after studying Dvorak as much as I have lately, but Ike looks markedly better than 99L. A few hours ago when I did my Dvorak analyses, I can up with T3.0.3.0 for Ike while 99L was a mark or mark and a half lower.

Additionally, I see a lot of low stratus type clouds near and south of 99L. That's not exciting me too much. Couple that with the elongated QS pass from earlier and I'm not too excited.

Don't get me wrong, I still think 99L is developing. I think that is looks rather impressive on satellite, but to borrow a line from Lloyd Bentsen, Senator, you're no Ike.

[beaufort12]

senorpepr, your quote brought me a big smile, because i can still see dan quayle comparing himself to jack kennedy and how lloyed bentsen jumped on that. 20 years ago believe it or not. and it was twenty years ago next week that saw the birth of hurricane gilbert, and later brought us cat4 joan.

[Chacor]

ABNT20 KNHC 020600
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 30 MILES WEST OF ALEXANDRIA
LOUISIANA...ON HURRICANE HANNA...LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND ON TROPICAL STORM IKE...LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED AT 5 AM AST.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING VERY LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY...AND IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES EAST
OF BERMUDA IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON IKE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON IKE ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT24 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.


$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH

[Brent]

Finally!

4 storms at once at 5am!

[beaufort12]

looks that way...

A STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED AT 5 AM AST.

[RattleMan]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_RENUMBER_al992008_al102008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200809020655
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[southerngale]

NRL has 10L.NONAME

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

02/0600 UTC 12.1N 22.5W T2.5/2.5 99L -- Atlantic Ocean


SAB says we got a tropical storm

[Chacor]

TAFB only went with T2.0/2.0.

[Chacor]

Round 14 of the forecast prediction league for TD Ten is now up:
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102975

WTNT25 KNHC 020829
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 23.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.

[Bane]

WTNT35 KNHC 020834
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

...TENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 23.9 WEST OR ABOUT 170
MILES...270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...AND MOVE AWAY
FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...12.4 N...23.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[apocalypt-flyer]

It'll be interesting to see how much latitude this gains since the NHC doesn't say it'll go over 20N in five days time (yet, this might or might not change in fututre advisories).

[bob rulz]

Finally!

4 storms at once at 5am!

4 tropical cyclones yes but only 2 storms. This is a depression as is Gustav. 11am should bring us our 3rd storm, however, and there's plenty of time for us to get our 4th storm before Hanna makes landfall.

[KWT]

well its not surprising we've got our next tropical depression, looking at the advisories its just like one long train of systems.

This may well end up getting caught by a similar high that Ike will get caught by, wee shall have to wait and see.

[Sihara]

well its not surprising we've got our next tropical depression, looking at the advisories its just like one long train of systems.

This may well end up getting caught by a similar high that Ike will get caught by, wee shall have to wait and see.

Doesn't HWRF show it going up into a weakness? So there may be hope for a fish. After Gustav, Hanna & Ike, that outcome would be a relief.

[KWT]

Indeed some models do show it heading into a weakness and its quite possible thats waht happens but those two models have been known to overdo weaknesses.

When you take into consideration the set-up if this gets to around 50W without recurving the syonptic pattern with a very strong ridge would shunt it westward. This is probably more of an east coast threat though its VERY early days yet.

[mommasue]

"THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART"

A lilttle off topic, but welcome back Stacy!!!

[KWT]

Its only just coming into the range of the floaters, thats how far east Td10 has formed. I think this probably will get upgraded in the next 12hrs providing nothing major happens and looking very likely to be another powerful CV hurricane, looks very possible this too could follow in Ike's footsteps, though maybe as touch to the north of where its progged to go.

I'm liking this systems chances in the future.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 020730.GIF

On the other hand, I think we have Josephine in our hands. Circulation is great and banding becoming more established. Great looking system.

Note: That's not an eye, just a break in the clouds!

[KWT]

Yep this one is looking very much like a TS now, I suspect come next advisory we will indeed have Josephine!

Very early days but given how powerful the ridge is forecasted to become and the track of Ike, I really tthink that unless it takes the exit around 45W, its destined for a westerly long tracker.