ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cpdaman]

Well, the satellite eclipse is over... but what on earth happened during the last 2 hrs?

Is this the sign of a possible RI cycle? I read a paper that before a RI cycle there is usually shedding of the outer rain bands but I doubt that too. Is it dry air? Maybe I'm just overreacting to something insignificant .

hocky how bout a link picture looks off doesn't really jive with 6:utc picture.....

[Hockey007]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES06152008246ZNNVjS.jpg There's the 6:15 image. And I get the pics from: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[cpdaman]

i don't know it's either crap or real good lol

i'm going to bed.......

turks and caicos stations aren't reporting

recon in at 1130

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg

[jhpigott]

SW, SSW move or a cyclonic loop . . . one way or other other, this is South and West of the NHC points . . . for now

[cpdaman]

SW, SSW move or a cyclonic loop . . . one way or other other, this is South and West of the NHC points . . . for now

actually it appears SSE of nhc point

[Hockey007]

Yeah, this thing's motion is really weird, I'm going to sleep right now. I'm probably not thinking straight because of the time. The expanse of the outer rain bands are huge!

[cpdaman]

REPEATING THE 200 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB

i don't think they have a clue how strong she is, kinda like last nite

oh sorry haiti we didn't know till we saw an eye pop thru jk

[AdamFirst]

NHC current position needs Hanna to jack immediately to the NW to verify tonight's track...I guess that's not happening

[Bane]

hanna is now moving west at 2 mph.

[jhpigott]

west at 2mph?? huh, the nch must be looking at a different system . . . Hanna looks to have nose dived south since the 11pm advisory

[jhpigott]

Well, at least Stewart notes the south movement in the 5am discussion . . .

CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HANNA
HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING A
PRONOUNCED EYE FEATURE

[ericinmia]

and... from the 5am disco:

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/02 kt. Latest
satellite position estimates suggest that Hanna could still be
moving southward.

This brings to mind the GFDL run we had a couple days back that showed hannah moving almost due south right into Haiti as a hurricane. (Not saying that is happening or will...) Hindsight is 20-20 being able to pick and choose the parts of the track that certain models got partially right.

[jhpigott]

Also from 5 am disco

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/02 KT. LATEST
SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT HANNA COULD STILL BE
MOVING SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PINCH OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF HANNA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW NORTH AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. BY 48-72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD
WESTWARD THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER FORWARD
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO GENERALLY EXTEND
EAST-WEST BETWEEN 32-24N LATITUDE...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF HANNA
WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND ALSO HOW STRONG THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE WILL BE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
UNTIL IT REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AFTER WHICH IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. AN APPROXIMATE
84-HOUR POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 31.3N 80.2W.


. . . where Hanna is when she starts to make her NW move plus the stretgth of the ridge is going to be determinative as to where she ends up

[TampaFl]

Hanna is not going anywhere any time soon as long as this big high is sitting to its north. MAybe this is what is continueing to push her ssw.

[KWT]

This southerly drift is buying Hanna more and more time to lift out to the north west and become a powerful hurricane. Its going to be a wait and see game though.

It'd be rather ironic if it hits Haiti from the north though, its really got to stop drifting this way otherwise its in big trouble...the GFDL was showing something like this at one point.

[bob rulz]

This is certainly one of the more confounding storms in recent memory...

[ericinmia]

Look at how her convection is flattening out:

[KWT]

Just got to wonder whether its actually just going to pile south enough to majorly interact with Hispaniola, its looking more and more possible.

[deltadog03]

I really don't know how much that trof is going to effect her if any....She is getting squashed by the eastern part of the high pressure. Remember Gustav did that...Stewart made mention that obviously the short term movement was really unknown, but depends on where she is at after 24-36 hours. Fl is still very much in the game here.

[KWT]

Yep Deltadog its a very uncertain set-up now and we are somewhat in unknown waters with this southward dive recently.

Still current guidence shows it heading into gulf waters, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this actually becomes a big threat to NE florida.