ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Trader Ron]

I'll stick with my Linas prediction.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yep GFDL Skims ECFL

[Evil Jeremy]

hAVE NOT PLOTTED BUT IT SEEMS WAY wEST? 27.7 79.5 IS CLOSE TO FL

Tue Sep 2 07:35:11 EDT 2008
WHXX04 KWBC 021132

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



HURRICANE HANNA 08L



INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 2



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.3 72.6 200./ 7.0

6 21.2 72.5 132./ 1.3

12 21.4 72.8 309./ 3.3

18 21.6 73.0 319./ 3.1

24 22.0 73.3 322./ 4.8

30 22.5 73.6 326./ 5.4

36 23.5 74.2 329./11.5

42 24.5 75.2 315./13.2

48 24.9 76.4 289./12.1

54 25.6 77.4 306./11.2

60 26.5 78.4 313./12.6

66 27.7 79.5 317./15.7

72 29.1 80.6 323./16.6

78 30.6 81.5 328./17.4

84 32.5 82.1 344./19.2

90 34.5 82.2 356./19.5

96 36.6 81.7 12./22.0

102 39.6 80.4 25./31.5

108 42.3 78.0 41./32.0

114 44.8 74.7 53./34.9

120 47.3 71.2 55./34.9

126 49.4 66.7 65./36.7

MUCH farther west!!! Northern Florida landfall!

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_08.gif

[Sirius LeWindy]

UKMET much farther east. It's a trend!

[Trader Ron]

It will be interesting if the HWRF follows the GFDL.

Notice the UKIE is now with most of the models.

[Sirius LeWindy]

Not one forecast in the pro-met TA section shows a Fl hit.

[jlauderdal]

hAVE NOT PLOTTED BUT IT SEEMS WAY wEST? 27.7 79.5 IS CLOSE TO FL

Tue Sep 2 07:35:11 EDT 2008
WHXX04 KWBC 021132

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



HURRICANE HANNA 08L



INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 2



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 21.3 72.6 200./ 7.0

6 21.2 72.5 132./ 1.3

12 21.4 72.8 309./ 3.3

18 21.6 73.0 319./ 3.1

24 22.0 73.3 322./ 4.8

30 22.5 73.6 326./ 5.4

36 23.5 74.2 329./11.5

42 24.5 75.2 315./13.2

48 24.9 76.4 289./12.1

54 25.6 77.4 306./11.2

60 26.5 78.4 313./12.6

66 27.7 79.5 317./15.7

72 29.1 80.6 323./16.6

78 30.6 81.5 328./17.4

84 32.5 82.1 344./19.2

90 34.5 82.2 356./19.5

96 36.6 81.7 12./22.0

102 39.6 80.4 25./31.5

108 42.3 78.0 41./32.0

114 44.8 74.7 53./34.9

120 47.3 71.2 55./34.9

126 49.4 66.7 65./36.7

that would be about 130 miles off fort lauderdale on the clean side too, we might be getting into a situation where wobble watching will actually be warranted as it moves up the coast assuming this track holds

[Blown Away]

GFDL 35 miles E of me at 66 hours. 34 miles east of Greg/Chris JLauderdale!

[JPmia]

Low Resolution version of the Euro:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090200!!/

[Bane]

what i find funny is how many people dismiss the 6z model runs when there is a big shift if the shift goes away from them but welcome it when the shift goes towards them.

[MBismyPlayground]

what i find funny is how many people dismiss the 6z model runs when there is a big shift if the shift goes away from them but welcome it when the shift goes towards them.

Well I for one am happy to see the shift towards the west!!! I don't want any of this mess even close to my door. My neighbor is a Katrina survivor and has been freaking a little.... Naw, it ain't coming this direction.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Man u guys are slacking..LOL

HWRF Takes her to JAX...Nother Left shifting Model this morning...Trend or Flop?

[M_0331]

MB,
I am in Charleston, SC area: don't see anything good about Hanna forecast. Hope it will change general forecast direction but we are not out of harm's way yet. fwiw ; just my personal veiwpoint.

[jlauderdal]

GFDL 35 miles E of me at 66 hours. 34 miles east of Greg/Chris JLauderdale!

alright you had your fun, back east it goes next run..

[gatorcane]

GFDL 35 miles E of me at 66 hours. 34 miles east of Greg/Chris JLauderdale!

alright you had your fun, back east it goes next run..

So probably about 40 or so miles east of my location on the border of Wellington/West Palm Beach (about 10 miles from the ocean)

[MBismyPlayground]

MB,
I am in Charleston, SC area: don't see anything good about Hanna forecast. Hope it will change general forecast direction but we are not out of harm's way yet. fwiw ; just my personal veiwpoint.

Well based on the sheer, and the latest models, it is a big possibility that this will take a fla track, maybe cruise along the coast. Rain and wind, but I am not gonna jump on that band wagon. I would prefer it stay down in Fla, no offense to the Fla people.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Huge shift in both GFDL and HWRF. I will await the 12Z runs to see if this is a trend. They both initialize off the GFS, so if the GFS run had something flaky, they could be flaky.

Most of the models are still aimed at South Carolina.

[gatorcane]

think back about what the dynamic model consensus showed for Hanna late last week when she was north of Puerto Rico.....as an invest/depression

many showed a dive SW or SSW into Eastern Cuba or near Haiti...

Look what is happening now. Models generally nailed the track.

[Weatherboy1]

Yes, as I look at the morning move in Hanna (SW-erly) and the shift west in the models, I can't help but wonder if this isn't going to scrape the FL coast a la David. Definitely seems like she'll be starting her NW motion from a point farther S and W of the prior few forecasts.

[M_0331]

MB,
I read you loud & clear!
Be Safe & hope for the best for all.