ATL INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 020003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 20N WITH A 1008 MB LOW
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVES SLOWLY WWD APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N
BETWEEN 56W-62W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES.

[Gustywind]

01/2345 UTC 16.5N 57.8W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean
Weakning a bit...

[expat2carib]

[HURAKAN]

That's not THIS 90L. That was the previous 90L. No model run have been run for this disturbance, if anything still survives.

[expat2carib]

:uarrow: That's not THIS 90L. That was the previous 90L. No model run have been run for this disturbance, if anything still survives.

I had it from the active systems links on the stormcarib site today http://www.stormcarib.com

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: That's not THIS 90L. That was the previous 90L. No model run have been run for this disturbance, if anything still survives.

I had it from the active systems links on the stormcarib site today http://www.stormcarib.com

I also saw it but that was the correct link in case model runs were run for this system, but so far, nothing, and looking at the system, I don't expect model runs to be run.

[Gustywind]

02/1145 UTC 20.1N 57.3W TOO WEAK 90L
000
AXNT20 KNHC 021206
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W SOUTH OF 20N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N
TO 14N BETWEEN 59W AND 60W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT HAD BEEN
OCCURRING NEAR THERE HAD WEAKENED AND IT HAS DEVELOPED AGAIN.

[Gustywind]

Good news for us in the islands if this weakning trend continues , no strongs winds and more but only water to refresh us a bit ( should convection increases first)...

[HURAKAN]

The small vortex is still there but you can see how hostile the environment is.

[bvigal]

I'm quite intrigued with this invest. They issued it, yet no model data run after 18hr, is that correct? But it hasn't been cancelled, either. I'm watching the pressures and winds in S. Leewards. Actually pressures all over the Eastern Caribbean are very low, 1008 to 1010mb. I think Hanna is dominating things.

[Cyclenall]

I think the models aren't being run on it because the tropics are so busy that they could not have the computer run it every 6 hours. I notice with 95C they only run the models on it every 12 hours and then swap with the other invest that is least likely to form. It's a good idea.

[Gustywind]

I'm quite intrigued with this invest. They issued it, yet no model data run after 18hr, is that correct? But it hasn't been cancelled, either. I'm watching the pressures and winds in S. Leewards. Actually pressures all over the Eastern Caribbean are very low, 1008 to 1010mb. I think Hanna is dominating things.

Agree with you fairly low yesterday near 1008 in Guadeloupe but Hanna is dominating things, we should continue to monitor the situation...

[Gustywind]

Nothing to report here, just that we're always in yellow alert for strong showers and thunderstorms. We have nicely rain here this morning and this afternoon, Meteo-France report only 20 millimeters in some areas, different from the 50 60millimeters forecasted, all in all... nothing to kill a cat or a dog lol, and tkanks LORD.
Seems that the Lesser Antilles islands are maybe blessed ... for the moment hope that this trend will continue as we're fairly and definitively approaching the super peak all this month. For our Pro Met, given the synopsis there's always a small risk ( 90L) to experience showers and thunderstorms until tommorow morning before a come back to the green alert...meaning nothing in terms of weather risks. . As usual we continue to monitor all these suspicious systems popping like nasty popcorn .