ATL: IKE Discussion

[Frank2]

I know, but, looking at the Western Atlantic, all that is seen are deep troughs at this time, so, perhaps the ridge will build in, but, not nearly at the strength originally forecast...

My guess is that some changes will be made to Ike's forecast during the next two advisory packages...

Let's hope so - I don't feel like evacuating to Birmingham just yet...

LOL

Frank

[gatorcane]

I know, but, looking at the Western Atlantic, all that is seen are deep troughs at this time, so, perhaps the ridge will build in, but, not nearly at the strength originally forecast...

My guess is that some changes will be made to Ike's forecast during the next two advisory packages...

Frank

No doubt, I can't see a westrunner all the way across the Atlantic at such a relatively high lattitude so I think the cone will gradually evolve overtime to less of a straight west runner and a gradual bend to the WNW or NW in the long-range with time...

I hope....

[KWT]

Possibly Frank though the high is very strong, heck its turned Hanna SW over the last 24hrs that gives you an indication of how strong it is and its progged to build eastward strongly.

I do think the models are somewhat overdoing the high but if not theres a good chance this makes landfall on Cuba...

[Frank2]

Yes, I agree with you both - the model plots yesterday seemed highly suspect to me almost to the point of them being bogus, since they showed Ike tracking due west for 2,000 miles, which as said earlier would be unusual to the point that it would go against the laws of nature, so, I agree that some adjustments will be made to show a recurving of some degree as it goes westward...

It it were shown moving west for 500 miles that's one thing, but, for 2,000, that's unusual...

[Wthrman13]

While such a straight westward track that is being forecasted by nearly all of the models would be highly unusual for a system this far north already, it's really hard to argue with the excellent model consensus. This is one of the reasons tropical cyclone forecasting has come such a long way since the era before NWP. Without such a strong model consensus, it's very doubtful anyone would even think of forecasting such a track for Ike, at least out into the long range.

As for the trough off the NE US, it's already closed off, and is forecast to retrograde a bit, before opening up and lifting out around the periphery of the building high. It's way too far north and west to affect Ike's track right now, and in the foreseeable future. All this is to say, go west young cyclone!

[KWT]

The thing is though to be fair Frank its also uncommon to have such a powerful high pressure cell with a tilt like this one:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

The general idea may not be far off but the system will probably be further north then expected and I do think a W/WNW path is more likely than the south of west some models are wanting to bring in.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yes, I agree with you both - the model plots yesterday seemed highly suspect to me almost to the point of them being bogus, since they showed Ike tracking due west for 2,000 miles, which as said earlier would be unusual to the point that it would go against the laws of nature, so, I agree that some adjustments will be made to show a recurving of some degree as it goes westward...

It it were shown moving west for 500 miles that's one thing, but, for 2,000, that's unusual...

Downright weird it would be, but models are clustered (just one model plot even though this isn't the right thread)




The 240 hour Canadian is straight West all the way to near Tampico, Mexico. The Euro is finally heading North towards the Gulf at 240.


Of course, the models will probably change. But it isn't just the GFS and models initialized off the GFS.

[gatorcane]

that's hard to argue...very tight consensus there, even a WSW motion is shown

For all we know it may head towards the Yucatan and never get north of 24N with such ridging...

[Ivanhater]

Yes, I agree with you both - the model plots yesterday seemed highly suspect to me almost to the point of them being bogus, since they showed Ike tracking due west for 2,000 miles, which as said earlier would be unusual to the point that it would go against the laws of nature, so, I agree that some adjustments will be made to show a recurving of some degree as it goes westward...

It it were shown moving west for 500 miles that's one thing, but, for 2,000, that's unusual...

Yes Frank, normally that would be unsual, however, not this time..The synoptics are different this time. Every single model build the ridge westward with Ike..The setup is different this time...Sure things can change, but recurving is the least likely scenario this time..

[Chacor]

ATCF says 50 kt.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

I think the fact that this big ULL near Novia Scotia is being pushed westward (instead of Eastward) is a big sign that a monster ridge is building across the northern subtropical atlantic that the models prog should keep Ike west bound for a while..

What do you think? Usually ULLs at this lattitude push east

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[gatorcane]

Derek Ortt's forecast for Ike is downright scary. A powerful hurricane westbound in the SE Bahamas...

[ROCK]

All guidance still suggest west for another five days...into Cuba/ DR/ Fl and into the GOM. EURO has somehting similar to Gus's track wise but still 240 hrs out...

[weatherbud]

WTNT24 KNHC 020855
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 43.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 43.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 45.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.6N 48.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 51.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.8N 54.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 43.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH.

[cycloneye]

[Weatherfreak000]

Well...considering the model consensus....this storm indeed may make a bit of history.

[HURAKAN]

This situation is getting scarier by the minute but it should be expected in September. We must wait and I hope if it goes to Cuba shear can keep it from being another Gustav. I can't see Cuba being able to handle another major hurricane impact. It will be too much for its people.

[HURAKAN]

IKE

[BOPPA]

Well...considering the model consensus....this storm indeed may make a bit of history.

A bit of history? Could you explain that please - thanks.