ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Frank2]

Can you find a tropical storm by looking at this photo?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

it'd be hard to even find a depression - I really think the NHC might need to downgrade this further, or, depending on what the recon finds, they might even need to consider dissipation, with the note that it might regenerate...

Lot's of convection to the south, but, little else...

[AdamFirst]

Where is this violent shear coming from? Is that the remaining outflow from Gustav?

[AZRainman]

[Trader Ron]

The poofcasters are out early today.

[cpdaman]

Can you find a tropical storm by looking at this photo?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

it'd be hard to even find a depression - I really think the NHC might need to downgrade this further, or, depending on what the recon finds, they might even need to consider dissipation, with the note that it might regenerate...

Lot's of convection to the south, but, little else...

frank.....that's a stretch...recon i gaurantee will find winds that support 50 miles an hour (minimum) ...so long as the LLC maintains it's structure......did you happen to read the pro-mets' post 25 minutes ago

[NEXRAD]

Is that dark area pushing southward the "ridge" building southward that should start the NW or WNW movement of Hanna?

If so I'm having a hard time believing a NW or NNW movement.....especially because it seems that ridge is building westward towards the Carolinas in this loop

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

and look at this loop...

is that big ULL off Nova Scotia retrograding back West and what are the track implications of Hanna because of this?

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

The dark area seems to be the trough base from what I'm looking at (IRWV and CIMSS). The ULL won't likely affect Hanna's track that much, as it won't drastically change the steering conditions, but will help to maintain shearing over the SW Atlantic through at least this evening.

- Jay

[Sanibel]

is that big ULL off Nova Scotia retrograding back West and what are the track implications of Hanna because of this?

Good observations. Perhaps the ridge they expect to carry Ike west is pushing that whole synoptic deal slightly west as you see in the ULL movement.

[NEXRAD]

Just a question..how fast is ike moving and will it disrupt hanna in any way? Hanna does not look well! And models still predict a south carolina landfall with Hanna..How is that looking? And they still show a cat 2 at landfall and have heard it could be a low end cat 3..Just a few questions i have..Thank you in advance for any comments!!........The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Hanna and Ike will remain far enough apart that the two don't significantly interact. If anything, Hanna might influence the evolution of troughs that might influence Ike down the road - but that's too far out for me to really be considering in detail at this point. South Carolina is still well within the envelope for possible future impact from Hanna, as is everyone from South Florida through North Carolina. For intensity, Hanna is on a weakening trend right now because of abundant shear aloft. This trend is likely to persist today, which means that Hanna will need more time to recover from shearing when more favorable conditions develop mid-week. That said, it's too early to tell exactly what intensity Hanna will be should the storm impact a given US location.

- Jay

[Bocadude85]

You got to love Hanna she goes from looking good to a naked swirl and then back to looking really good and back to a naked swirl.. whats next?

[Frank2]

cpdaman,

frank.....that's a stretch...recon i gaurantee will find winds that support 50 miles an hour (minimum) ...so long as the LLC maintains it's structure......did you happen to read the pro-mets' post 25 minutes ago

True (that's what I get for not stretching before posting)...

Still, the system is very badly sheared to the point that the LLC is very hard to discern at this time...

As you said, we'll know better when recon arrives...

Frank

[Sirius LeWindy]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at3

Bouy 41046 is 185 miles away and still TD winds. That is a large storm.

edit TS to TD

[Lowpressure]

You got to love Hanna she goes from looking good to a naked swirl and then back to looking really good and back to a naked swirl.. whats next?

Looking good naked!

[Frank2]

You have to wonder if those are gradient winds or are actually related to the circulation itself - we are breezy here, too, but, for sure we are not under the circulation...

[alienstorm]

Hanna, may end up over Haiti or Cuba pretty soon, it seems to be moving S - SSE...

[cpdaman]

You got to love Hanna she goes from looking good to a naked swirl and then back to looking really good and back to a naked swirl.. whats next?

looking good obviously

i think we may be kidding ourselves if we can forecast the "minute" changes in shear over the next 24 hours, today nothing would surprise my self with hanna. NW sure, SE sure, W, yup, east check, sw yup.....all are possible IMO....depending on her strength , the shear, and the synoptic evolution in the short term

[gatorcane]

cpdaman,

frank.....that's a stretch...recon i gaurantee will find winds that support 50 miles an hour (minimum) ...so long as the LLC maintains it's structure......did you happen to read the pro-mets' post 25 minutes ago

True (that's what I get for not stretching before posting)...

Still, the system is very badly sheared to the point that the LLC is very hard to discern at this time...

As you said, we'll know better when recon arrives...

Frank

A weaker Hanna would likely be steered more WNW ultimately with low-level steering.

[cpdaman]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at3

Bouy 41046 is 185 miles away and still TS winds. That is a large storm.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

that is certaintly not tropical storm strength winds on that bouy

[Sanibel]

Hanna and Ike will remain far enough apart that the two don't significantly interact

The visible shot Blown Away showed us puts Ike at 66.5W while Hanna is at 71.7W on 02/09UTC. That's practically right on top of each other at around the same latitude.

[cpdaman]

You have to wonder if those are gradient winds or are actually related to the circulation itself - we are breezy here, too, but, for sure we are not under the circulation...

we sure are breezy especially at the beach.....you know this could possibly be a eroson concern with constant NE winds along the beach..should hanna montana take her sweet time with her "tour de bahamas"

[Blown Away]

Watching that shear on Hanna is like clearing the screen on an Etch-A-Sketch.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html