ATL JOSEPHINE: Remnants - Discussion

[Chacor]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 020730.GIF

On the other hand, I think we have Josephine in our hands. Circulation is great and banding becoming more established. Great looking system.

Note: That's not an eye, just a break in the clouds!

I'm not so sure... microwave is suggestive.

[Category 5]

I never like to use the E word on a TD (T numbers support 35kts BTW), but this is interesting. Not saying it is, but it's interesting.



You can see a tiny little dot on microwave too.

[KWT]

It probably is just a break in the clouds, I suppose you could watch it but I don't think it is.

What I do expect to see is this being upgraded to a tropical storm in the next 12hrs or so.

I also think this needs to be watched down the line, whilst the higher resolution do suggest this gets quite far north the ridge around 45-55W is very strong indeed.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 021027
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
627 AM AST TUE SEP 2 2008

WHAT IS TO BECOME OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 SEEMS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IS
THERE...BUT ITS PATH IS LIKELY TO BE FARTHER NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
THAN IKE. THE GFS IS NOT FAVORING THIS SYSTEM AS MUCH AS INITIAL
CONDITIONS WOULD INDICATE. AT A MINIMUM...WOULD EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...EASTERLY FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION NUMBER 10 IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTER NEXT. MODELS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER AND LARGER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE NEXT WEEK.

[apocalypt-flyer]

The train is rolling.

[KWT]

Yep thats probably refeiring to Td10 there Gustywind. I think there is a reasonable chance that this becomes a major hurricane down the line, Ike is going to be well out of this systems way so there isn't much IMO to prevent a strong system coming out of this. I think the key is if it gets to 50W below 25N then its a real east coast threat but for now we have to wait and see what happens.

[Gustywind]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Tropical Depression 10
A tropical wave that emerged from the African Coast yesterday has formed into Tropical Depression 10 this morning. It is located about 170 miles south-southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Top winds are near 35 miles per hour, and is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm (Josephine) later today and into a hurricane later by the weekend.

It is expected to remain well south of the Cape Verde Islands today, moving away from them tonight on a west and west-northwest track.

[cycloneye]

HELLO JOSEPHINE!

Best Track increases winds to 35kts.


AL, 10, 2008090212, , BEST, 0, 130N, 246W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 180, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOSEPHINE,

[HURAKAN]

35 knots, that's difficult to believe.

[cycloneye]

Maybe,NHC may increase more than what ATCF says.

[meteorologyman]

She looks like a Hurricane, and a major one at that. but it's not the looks it's the data

[Just Joshing You]

This year is one weird one.. second Depression to be classified a Tropical Storm AFTER it has shown an eye.

[cycloneye]

35 knots, that's difficult to believe.

Off Topic=That wave SE of TD 10/Josephine that is emerging West Africa,looks good too for future Cyclone formation.

[TampaFl]

35 knots, that's difficult to believe.

Agree Hurkan - Looks like an "eye like feature". Most likley this already a hurricane based on the latest sat. pics coming in. I belive Hurricane Donna in Sept. 1960 also came off Africa in a similar fashion. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna_(1960)

thoughts & comments welcomed.


Robert

[Chacor]

I find it hard to believe that's not an eye.

[RL3AO]

There is a warming that matches up with the visible "eye" near 13.2N, 24.2W.

[Lowpressure]

Looks like a hurricane from that shot, just incredible! It will be a LONG time before recon gets in this. It will be a Dvorak and satellite estimated storm for a while with a ship report or two thrown in. I guess we need recon to fly out of Senagal now!!

[HURAKAN]

There is a saying "believe nothing of what you hear, and only half of what you see."

Loop: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

Press 12 in the animation frames, play, and faster.

Does it looks like an eye now?

[Chacor]

Still well east of 35°W so this is in Météo-France's high seas area.

[Chacor]

WTNT25 KNHC 021448
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008
1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 25.3W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.