ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[AdamFirst]

so if Hanna slips more SW....could there be another track shift left?

I'm certain of it. Right now the NHC track predicts an immediate jerk to the NW for this CURRENT track to verify. I don't see that happening right now.

Governor Crist just declared a state of emergency

[gatorcane]

so if Hanna slips more SW....could there be another track shift left?

I'm certain of it. Right now the NHC track predicts an immediate jerk to the NW for this CURRENT track to verify. I don't see that happening right now.

Governor Crist just declared a state of emergency

State of Emergency? Link?

[mawolf3]

Would someone please post a link for the "spaghetti models". I have the SFWMD one but I dont like it. Thanks!

[ronjon]

The new 11 am track has Hanna scraping the NE coast of Florida around St. Augustin, bouncing off, then going straight north into SC just north of Charleston

No - it is simply a straight line between the points - Hanna would curve N-NW, N, and then N-NE to reach the 24 hr location in SC. The NHC doesn't publish a track intermediate of the 24 hr locations beyond 72 hrs.

[captain east]

Kind of looks like she's following the UKMET... If she survives.

[AdamFirst]

I have no link yet, they just aired a press conference with him on WPEC

[boca]

I have to leave for work in 30 minutes but the water vapor loop is the key to Hanna's survival.Also that long cold front type line pressing SE towards Hanna's center is also interesting.

[jlauderdal]

:uarrow:

good point Hurakan...

I can tell you I sense no concern at all here in SE Florida on Hanna.....

but just a small shift left makes a HUGE difference in impacts.

gator - agreed...people at my work are totally complacent about it...they are all certain we will only see showers from her...they have no idea of what could possibly happen...

on another note...man the NHC forecast certainly likes a true NW motion from this point out...not convinced about that myself

thats because they woke up this morning and listened to the local radio or tv and that forecast may verify

[Bocadude85]

so if Hanna slips more SW....could there be another track shift left?

well according to the HC she is moving wsw at 6MPH and if you look at their track you do not see any movement west before the NW turn.. so if she continues to move w or wsw for the day then I would say the track would have to be shifted further south.

[gatorcane]

convection seems to be building ESE of the center...

could we see a center reformation farther SE?

[cpdaman]

cutoff low/upper low off the north east coast is retrograding westward, perhaps this will translate into the shear axis at the base of the trough being pushed SW further and getting hanna......i think it's a toss up

[divanicki75]

I hope she doesn't end up like a Hugo or Andrew. I'm already considering packing up the toddlers and going. I can't until I find out if hubby has to stay on the boat (US Navy) or not. I've heard horror stories of people trying to leave here (Charleston area) before Hugo.

[captain east]

I know these things are unpredictable, but dang hanna is a B#%@$ !

[bahamaswx]

Indeed. There's no way at all NHC's short term track for Hanna can verify unless she stops moving WSW immediately.

[HURAKAN]

Down but not out.

[gtsmith]

Down but not out.

yeah...but the ref is starting the ten count...

[Steve H.]

Convection is beginning to rapidly blossom once again as the shear seems to be abating some. She WILL return. Check the latest visibles from Goddard.

[txwatcher91]

Apparently Hanna doesn't realize she has strong shear over her, latest visible shows she is bowing the deformation outward. What will she do when shear relaxes

[carversteve]

Ok..i got to ask! What our the chances of her going between haiti and cuba and into the carribean before deceiding to move nw??

[RevDodd]

On that last motion image of Hanna, was the streak of clouds descending on the right side the high pressure that is supposed to push her? If so, how does it's arrival match model expectations?