ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[karenfromheaven]

Would someone please post a link for the "spaghetti models". I have the SFWMD one but I dont like it. Thanks!

This is one of my favorites:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[carversteve]

Down but not out.

yeah...but the ref is starting the ten count...

I still see a spin in that convection!!

[stormy1970al]

Ok..i got to ask! What our the chances of her going between haiti and cuba and into the carribean before deceiding to move nw??

I have no answer but I do have a comment. I hope it does not do that. I don't know if I can handle having another storm in the Gulf right now. My nerves on already on the edge and I think a storm would do me in. So I would love to hear an answer on this.

[cpdaman]

it's hanna two face , that convection is only on her SE side (for now )

recon leaving any minute now

yesterday it took them 80 minutes from take off to transmitting the first set of obs so not much longer to see what she's got under those clouds


she looks MUCH better on visible btw and her LLC could tuck east right into that blow up of convection

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[storms in NC]

11 AM Discussion:

On the forecast track...Hanna is expected to
approach the East Coast of Florida... Georgia...or South Carolina
in 2 to 3 days. It should be stressed that the expected angle of
approach and track uncertainty make it impossible to narrow down
the potential impact area. Interests in the northwestern Bahamas
and along the entire southeastern United States coast should
closely monitor the progress of this system.

So the People here in NC Can stop watching and go about their everyday business cause Hanna Will Not go there?

[Sanibel]

Edit: Hanna withstanding shear border.

[bob rulz]

Ok..i got to ask! What our the chances of her going between haiti and cuba and into the carribean before deceiding to move nw??

I'm no expert but that seems very unlikely to me.

Is it just me or has the UKMET been forecasting all these outlier scenarios that seem to be either verifying or almost verifying?

[gtsmith]

Down but not out.

yeah...but the ref is starting the ten count...

I still see a spin in that convection!!

I'm NOT saying poof by any means...i still see spin and convective flaring...but she's a far way from what she once was...

EDIT: forgot to add the NOT in the above sentence...yikes...need to proof read better!

[bob rulz]

1 death reported in Puerto Rico.

"It hurled rains that caused flooding across Cuba, Haiti and Puerto Rico, where at least one university student died in a rain-swollen river."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26496933/

I love how it says that it "hurled" rain. Gotta love those colorful news reporters.

[Sanibel]

The border has reached Hanna and its convection is still bursting right into it.

It will survive.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS running, looks like another slight west shift in this run from the 06Z.....see models thread.

Comparing with the 00Z run there is no doubt the GFS is trending westward with Hanna.

[jlauderdal]

The border has reached Hanna and its convection is still bursting right into it.

It will survive.

i have never seen anything like that on a tropical system, anyone else ever seen something like this?

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP EDGE OR DEFORMATION
AXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY SUGGESTING THAT THE
SHEAR WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM

[meteorologyman]

............
That shearing line just dissapear and seems like it got absorbed in Hanna and now Hanna looks like she's getting her convection back
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[cpdaman]

something tells me those bathtub waters are helping her fight the shear

meteorolygman " both fighters seems to be going all out"

when you click "speed up" and loop this aviation visible it starts to look scary IMO

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

[gatorcane]

GFS is keeping Hanna as a significant system in the 12Z run and more west again...we are out to 60 hours now and not even 50 miles just off the coast of SE FL

[txwatcher91]

something tells me those bathtub waters are helping her fight the shear

meteorolygman " both fighters seems to be going all out"

when you click "speed up" and loop this aviation visible it starts to look scary IMO

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

So much for the upwelling theory...

I can see the hp building west now and everything seems on track for a SC landfall somewhere IMO.

[jdjaguar]

The border has reached Hanna and its convection is still bursting right into it.

It will survive.

I agree. Notice that the burst of convection is starting to bow the border back some. Living in JAX I'm startinig to get an uneasy feeling
about this situation. Models have her offshore my doorstep in 80-90 hours..some spinning her up to CAT 3.

[meteorologyman]

you are not kidding cpdaman infact I trying to come up with another continuation of the match and have some very good ideas for it. I was thinking about posting it around 1:00 but the shear looks like it's not even going to last that long

[gatorcane]

okay I know its not the model thread peeps but look at this, expect the NHC to shift the track west again at 5pmEST assuming these west shifts continue.

[Scorpion]

Wow it skims the coast.