ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[Bocadude85]

The 12Z GFS is noticeably more west than prior runs, there is no denying it.

Prior to landfall, yes, but landfall, NO. It moves more N prior to landfall instead of NNW, look at AJC3's post.

Yes but his point is that the run is further west in the near term which has a bigger effect on the weather in SE FL where he lives, not to mention a slight wobble would bring the center on shore.. or further offshore

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: No doubt about that, I was just saying landfall is farther N. From Miami to Maine will likely have effects from Hanna.

I'm not sold yet though -- lets see if other models follow. The GFS model could back off the west trend in the next run...

Considering the last few GFS runs have all trended west with its closest point to Florida's east coast...I think its a trend.

[sponger]

Ouch! If that track verifies my Southern evac to the parents is shut down. I will be on I 10 west with 4 million other people. Anyone know when the NOAA plane is scheduled to sample the outer envirionment?

same here.

My mom down in Vero usually evacs up here to JAX...and during Floyd I ATTEMPTED to evac to Vero.

Could not even reach Starke and turned around and came home (I was trying to get to I-75 south). Fortunate for us, Floyd turned away at the last moment.

If Hannah crawls up the coast..there is no going anywhere w/ 95 shutdown.

Exactly! I sat in traffic for 6 hours and never made it out of Jacksonville (Approximately 10 miles) Florida is supposed to have a contra flow plan in place but it has never been tested. They built a new middle school next door. The engineer said it would survive a direct hit from a f-3 tornado. I have never gone to a shelter before but it is a nice back up plan if Hannah ramps up and the tracks dont revert back to the east. Another exciting week!

[bucman1]

The other day i asked if the West Coast of Fla might see some effects from

Hanna and there was a resounding no, with some west trends is it now possible or

is this strictly a East Coast event?

Thanks,

Bucman

[dixiebreeze]

Gov. Crist just declared a State of Emergency for Florida re: Hanna -- probably due to the latest track.

Crist issues state of emergency in response to Hanna
Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Gov. Crist declared the state of emergency Tuesday morning.
TALLAHASSEE (Bay News 9) -- A state of emergency has been issued for Florida in response to Tropical Storm Hanna.

Gov. Charlie Crist declared the state of emergency Tuesday morning as Hanna prepared to pass across the Bahamas in the next few days.

Hanna is the third system to threaten Florida in the past three weeks and one of four current name weather systems in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico.

More Information

State of Emergency declared
The storm is about 550 southeast of Miami and could be a Category 2 storm by the end of the week as it approaches north Florida and the Georgia state line, its forecasted track.

Crist advised residents to be prepared to act in the event Hanna affects the state.

[N2Storms]

[quote="bucman1"]The other day i asked if the West Coast of Fla might see some effects from

Hanna and there was a resounding no, with some west trends is it now possible or

is this strictly a East Coast event?

Thanks,

Bucman[/quote]


you are in the cone so it's possible you could feel some fringe effects if it hugs the EC of FL on it's way to the Carolinas

[Weatherboy1]

Is it just me or does the latest midday NOGAPS have Hanna making a direct landfall in Palm Beach County here?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... r&prod=prp

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFDL about same with landfall in Central GA...Little further E in the Short term...

[deltadog03]

Why would this west trend suprise some folks...It can always go either way...However, this W trend or whatever does NOT suprise me at all...WHY?? Well, lets face it, the longer hanna mills around in the bahamas the further west she will go since a RIDGE is building IN not out...

[Vortex]

what concerns me is the 12Z Nogaps makes complete sense with a ridge building in...

[gatorcane]

Why would this west trend suprise some folks...It can always go either way...However, this W trend or whatever does NOT suprise me at all...WHY?? Well, lets face it, the longer hanna mills around in the bahamas the further west she will go since a RIDGE is building IN not out...

the problem is the media especially tends to focus on the LINE and what is happening at the moment. The line has been pointing at the Carolinas and just offshore Florida.....the cone is whats important which has kept all of South Florida and Florida in general in the cone....not to mention the high uncertainties in the projected path that the NHC keeps mentioning.

Even TWC yesterday were stating things like "Hanna to effect the Carolinas and anywhere from North Florida northward"...leaving out all of Southern Florida and Central Florida from their CONE. I knew that was a mistake when I saw it.

I am certainly not surprised with a westward shift here and wouldn't have been surprised with and eastward shift also....

[mel38]

vortex could you please post the model you are concerned about, i have a hard time opening that web page. thanks

[Bocadude85]

i didnt think the gfdl came out until 2

[ronjon]

12Z HWRF landfall Cape Canaveral.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008090212-hanna08l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Vortex]

The Euro all last week had Hanna in the exact position it currently is..It was relentless for days in developing the storm from this point on and for many runs in a row brought the storm across southern florida. My concern this afternoon is the ridge is building in to the north and shear values will continue to drop. It would make complete sense to see Hanna move across the central bahamas and to a position along the central/southern coast of florida.

[ronjon]

Is it just me or does the latest midday NOGAPS have Hanna making a direct landfall in Palm Beach County here?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... r&prod=prp

Double Whammy to FL - Hanna then Ike. Ouch!

[gtsmith]

The Euro all last week had Hanna in the exact position it currently is..It was relentless for days in developing the storm from this point on and for many runs in a row brought the storm across southern florida. My concern this afternoon is the ridge is building in to the north and shear values will continue to drop. It would make complete sense to see Hanna move across the central bahamas and to a position along the central/southern coast of florida.

why did you post this in the models thread and the main Hanna thread???

[DESTRUCTION5]

12Z HWRF landfall Cape Canaveral.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2008090212-hanna08l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

When u said Cape i thought Cape Fear...not Cape Canaveral!

[jlauderdal]

Is it just me or does the latest midday NOGAPS have Hanna making a direct landfall in Palm Beach County here?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... r&prod=prp

Double Whammy to FL - Hanna then Ike. Ouch!

good news if all that verifies is you put the shutters up once and leave them up..

[artist]

The Euro all last week had Hanna in the exact position it currently is..It was relentless for days in developing the storm from this point on and for many runs in a row brought the storm across southern florida. My concern this afternoon is the ridge is building in to the north and shear values will continue to drop. It would make complete sense to see Hanna move across the central bahamas and to a position along the central/southern coast of florida.

I have been seeing the same thing. With it this close every mile will make a difference. Thanks for posting this in both threads so those unaware and only following the main thread will be put on notice.