ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[deltadog03]

GFS shows some very good upper air conditions in about 12-18 hours....

[Steve H.]

Yeah, 12z NOGAPS has her coming into the Palm Beaches/up through Stuart and almost into Orlando. GFDL surprised me by going in northeast FL/GA due to a loop, and the HWRF surprised me by coming in at Cape Canaveral. I was thinking those two would be the other way around. But it is still early in the game. Let's watch and see what she does.

[jhpigott]

GFS shows some very good upper air conditions in about 12-18 hours....

perfect . . . this is a potentially bad set up. IMHO - Most of SEFL media has downplayed Hanna and now we are all seeing trends that could (and i emphasize "could") lead to a stregthening hurricane approaching the Mia-FtLaud-WPB corridor with little lead time . . . fabulous

[O Town]

I know this is of all the systems but thought it was cool to look at.
Out of all the systems out there and all the models only a slight few take
any of them away from the conus. 95% of those models are aiming at us in
the U.S. or in this general direction.

[artist]

Is it just me or does the latest midday NOGAPS have Hanna making a direct landfall in Palm Beach County here?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... r&prod=prp

Double Whammy to FL - Hanna then Ike. Ouch!

good news if all that verifies is you put the shutters up once and leave them up..

No! I will not accept this!
It's kinda scary, huh? Have you looked at the map on the main Talking Tropics forum which each storm and where it is supposed to go on their current tracks? Looks like a trail straight from the eastern Atlantic to the Carolinas they are so close to each other. Of course things will change but it is a site to behold right now!

[artist]

I know this is of all the systems but thought it was cool to look at.
Out of all the systems out there and all the models only a slight few take
any of them away from the conus. 95% of those models are aiming at us in
the U.S.

O town you beat me too it! I was tyoing while you posted! lol

[Bocadude85]

what does it mean in terms of track that now that the center is further south and east

[Frank2]

It'll be interesting to see what happens since the trough to the north is dropping southwest per the WV loop, so, that could just as easily move the system northward (not northwestward)...

The environment is not nearly clear-cut as was thought a day or two ago with the trough deeper than earlier forecast...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

[Bocadude85]

i still think SC will be the place of landfall especially with the center further SE

[Stormtrack03]

Possible westward trend to Florida?

[Sabanic]

Possible westward trend to Florida?

Keeps trending west will she possibly end up in the GOM??

[Frank2]

It's hard to understand the models - my opinion, but, they might be underestimating the strength of the trough...

I could see if the high was the only issue present, but, the trough is very sharp, and, will definitely influence the low - but, since the trough's flow is counterclockwise, it's hard to see Hanna moving northwest, into the trough - that just doesn't make sense...

[Stormtrack03]

It's hard to understand the models - my opinion, but, they might be underestimating the strength of the trough...

I could see if the high was the only issue present, but, the trough is very sharp, and, will definitely influence the low - but, since the trough's flow is counterclockwise, it's hard to see Hanna moving northwest, into the trough - that just doesn't make sense...

What do you mean by this?

[deltadog03]

Frank2 the trof is not suppose to do much if anything too her....The ridge is really the thing that steers her.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8090212!!/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~
12z Euro shows a central florida landfall.

[gatorcane]

Euro trending back west now ...if it shows a Central FL landfall

[Frank2]

deltadog,

I have to disagree - troughs are more of an influence on tropical systems than highs, for certain...

The trough is very sharp, extending down to just north of Hanna (22N), which is very deep for this time of year - it'd be no surprise if the NHC mentions this at 5...

[gatorcane]

deltadog,

I have to disagree - troughs are more of an influence on tropical systems than highs, for certain...

The trough is very sharp, extending down to just north of Hanna (22N), which is very deep for this time of year - it'd be no surprise if the NHC mentions this at 5...

But Frank I believe we are seeing exactly what the big European models were forecasting.....that is Hanna dives SW and stalls as a "backdoor" cold front pushes down the East Coast of the CONUS...but we all know what's behind fronts...and that is strong High pressure usually...so in theory Hanna should begin taking a more WNW or NW course in time...as the European models were insisting for several days (and starting to revert back to now...the ECMWF has shifted left along with the GFS and NOGAPS, all very reliable models)

[Frank2]

I don't know - their scenario doesn't sound right...

It seems Gustav only sharpened the trough that is impinging on Hanna, and, since the flow in the trough is still diving south, it seems the influence will only be more, not less...

Per the WV the trough is moving southwest (slowly), so, once the axis passes Hanna, as it's doing now, it seems that Hanna will possibly begin to move north, in response to the trough...

[gatorcane]

I don't know - their scenario doesn't sound right...

It seems Gustav only sharpened the trough that is impinging on Hanna, and, since the flow in the trough is still diving south, it seems the influence will only be more, not less...

Per the WV the trough is moving southwest (slowly), so, once the axis passes Hanna, as it's doing now, it seems that Hanna will possibly begin to move north, in response to the trough...

Yes I agree with that and it should move north then a bend to the NW...at least that is what the dynamic model guidance suggests...the key to the forecast is just how much the Bermuda High builds westward to cause either a NW or more of a WNW movement....

seems like today the dynamic model consensus believes the Bermuda High is going to build in stronger than was originally progged yesterday at this time.