ATL JOSEPHINE: Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Looks like that illusion may not be? Unless the circulations are not in the same place.

I'd say 50 kt for the intensity right now given all considerations.

[bob rulz]

Still looks higher than 40mph. I'd say 50 at the LEAST, possibly upwards of 60.

How often do the Dvorak satellites make estimates?

[CrazyC83]

Still looks higher than 40mph. I'd say 50 at the LEAST, possibly upwards of 60.

How often do the Dvorak satellites make estimates?

Every 6 hours. If they make a high estimate, they could put out a special advisory at 2 pm.

[Cryomaniac]

Has there ever been a major hurricane near the Cape Verde Islands?

I doubt it, and I doubt this will be one there.

[bob rulz]

Still looks higher than 40mph. I'd say 50 at the LEAST, possibly upwards of 60.

How often do the Dvorak satellites make estimates?

Every 6 hours. If they make a high estimate, they could put out a special advisory at 2 pm.

I'd say there's a good chance of that. This could be a 3.0 - 3.5 at this rate.

Looks like the SHIPS forecast for RI was right. I don't think I've seen a system look this good this close to the Cape Verde islands in recent memory.

Has there ever been a major hurricane near the Cape Verde Islands?

No, and there probably never will be. There have been storms that have become hurricanes near the islands though. I seem to recall a cat 2 hurricane occurring very close to Cape Verde at one point.

[meteorologyman]

never say never
there is a first time for everything

[HURAKAN]

Puzzling system.

[Aristotle]

Regardless, she sure is getting her act together very very quickly. That's a very pretty storm.

[cpdaman]

wow just wow

from looks of microwave imagery it just needs to wrap the inner band (but that imagery is a few hours old) so perhaps she has......very impressive none the less

[KWT]

Wow thats some pretty serious wrapping going around that vis eye like feature, indeed that looks like a formative eyewall there on that microwave imagery!

[CrazyC83]

02/1745 UTC 13.4N 25.1W T2.5/2.5 JOSEPHINE -- Atlantic Ocean

[KWT]

I'm really surprised that the Dvorak estimates are so low with a system that is so well wrapped round and showing such awesome banding qualities howver it may just be that the banding is a little removed from the center.

[CrazyC83]

I'm really surprised that the Dvorak estimates are so low with a system that is so well wrapped round and showing such awesome banding qualities howver it may just be that the banding is a little removed from the center.

It may also be that it is a fairly shallow system (at least it seems that way).

[KWT]

Possibly, still despite that the wrapping is suggestive of something strongerthen 35kts, I've not often seen a 35kts have this sort of apperence, I'd go with 45kts right now possibly even 50kts...

[cycloneye]

BEST TRACK at 18:00 UTC upgrades the winds to 45kts.

AL, 10, 2008090218, , BEST, 0, 135N, 253W, 45, 1000, TS,

[KWT]

Welll there you go NHC must be listening to me

[Cyclenall]

My guess at strength is 50 knots right now. It's a wonderful looking eastern Atlantic TC.

[KWT]

Will be interesting if the models have a good grip on the upper set-up that Josephine will encounter, they are determined to weaken it quite a lot and eventually lose it in the central Atlantic, but we shall have to wait and see.

[littlevince]

IR Loop

[CrazyC83]

I agree with 50 kt for the intensity.