ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
This is what channel 9 news is reporting on there web site
State Of Emergency Issued As Hanna's Path Could Target Central Florida
ORLANDO, Fla. -- Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has issued a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Hanna looms. Hanna is the third storm to threaten Florida in three weeks, and the fourth hurricane of the season. It was forecast to move into the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday.
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VIDEO REPORT: Brevard Residents Prepare For Hanna
HANNA: Computer Models | Forecast Path | Advisory |Discussion
IKE: Computer Models | Forecast Path | Advisory | Discussion
JOSEPHINE: Computer Models | Forecast Path | Advisory | Discussion
GUSTAV: Computer Models | Forecast Path | Advisory | Discussion
SEE STORMS: Atlantic Infrared | Loop | Caribbean | Hispaniola
VIDEO FORECAST: Latest Eye On The Tropics Report
SPECIAL SECTION: Hurricane Season 2008
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Hanna was a hurricane Monday, but had weakened back onto a tropical storm Tuesday. Crist says Florida should be ready for flash floods and winds up to 111 mph.
However, there is no certainty Hanna will hit Florida. Current forecasts show it could also make landfall in coastal Georgia, the Carolinas or elsewhere. The emergency declaration allows the state to more easily mobilize employees, law enforcement personnel and other resources.
Terry said the official track keeps Hanna just offshore, passing Central Florida Thursday night into Friday and possibly strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane. Terry warned that some models had the storm coming as close as 50 miles off of Port Canaveral and that track would bring at least tropical storm force winds and rain to the coast. Tropical storm force winds could potentially reach the metro-Orlando area.
Tom Terry also cautioned that any deviation from those tracks could have a significant effect on the kind of weather Central Florida could see.
At 11:00am, a tropical storm warning was issued for the northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands.
Interests in eastern Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of
At 11:00am, the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 21.0 north, longitude 73.5 west or about 20 miles west-southwest of Great Inagua Island and about 370 miles southeast of Nassau. Hanna is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Hanna will move over the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday and into the central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. An air force reconnaissance aircraft will investigate Hanna Tuesday afternoon. Some strengthening is possible on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.
Swells from Hanna are expected to increase the risk of dangerous rip currents along portions of the southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
BREVARD COUNTY RESIDENTS PREPARE FOR HANNA
The County was trying to pump water from Fay out of the Brevard neighborhood, but it was not going anywhere fast.
Ernie Cowen was pulling up the plywood inside of his Brevard County rental property to help it air out. Tropical Storm Fay left 2 feet of water inside and mildew was growing all over the walls. His tenants lost everything.
"You've got to get rid of the dampness and the mildew," Cowen said.
He was trying to clean up just in case Hanna reaches the coast, not knowing what she and two other looming storms may bring.
Cowen's neighborhood near Range Road looked like nearly everyone was evicted. Furniture that sat in flood waters for days was on the curb and some of the homes were uninhabitable.
"I am angry. My neighbor is angry, she may not show it as much as I do, but I'm angry," said flood victim Jack Ward.
Ward and his neighbor Sharon Herford were trying to figure out how to pay for Fay's damage because they have no flood insurance. Even a few inches of rain from a storm would be too much to handle.
"My house will be flooded again and this whole neighborhood too," said Herford.
"We're blue collar workers and have money saved, but nothing compares to rebuilding a home," Jack said.
The county has been pumping water 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. There's really no place for the water to go because so much of it has already been dumped into the Saint John's River.
"One thing about it is that God will never give you move than you can deal with to get through it," said Sharon.
Channel 9 checked with Brevard County Emergency Operations and they were partially activated because of Fay.
State Of Emergency Issued As Hanna's Path Could Target Central Florida
ORLANDO, Fla. -- Florida Gov. Charlie Crist has issued a state of emergency as Tropical Storm Hanna looms. Hanna is the third storm to threaten Florida in three weeks, and the fourth hurricane of the season. It was forecast to move into the southeastern and central Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VIDEO REPORT: Brevard Residents Prepare For Hanna
HANNA: Computer Models | Forecast Path | Advisory |Discussion
IKE: Computer Models | Forecast Path | Advisory | Discussion
JOSEPHINE: Computer Models | Forecast Path | Advisory | Discussion
GUSTAV: Computer Models | Forecast Path | Advisory | Discussion
SEE STORMS: Atlantic Infrared | Loop | Caribbean | Hispaniola
VIDEO FORECAST: Latest Eye On The Tropics Report
SPECIAL SECTION: Hurricane Season 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hanna was a hurricane Monday, but had weakened back onto a tropical storm Tuesday. Crist says Florida should be ready for flash floods and winds up to 111 mph.
However, there is no certainty Hanna will hit Florida. Current forecasts show it could also make landfall in coastal Georgia, the Carolinas or elsewhere. The emergency declaration allows the state to more easily mobilize employees, law enforcement personnel and other resources.
Terry said the official track keeps Hanna just offshore, passing Central Florida Thursday night into Friday and possibly strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane. Terry warned that some models had the storm coming as close as 50 miles off of Port Canaveral and that track would bring at least tropical storm force winds and rain to the coast. Tropical storm force winds could potentially reach the metro-Orlando area.
Tom Terry also cautioned that any deviation from those tracks could have a significant effect on the kind of weather Central Florida could see.
At 11:00am, a tropical storm warning was issued for the northern coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos islands.
Interests in eastern Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of
At 11:00am, the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 21.0 north, longitude 73.5 west or about 20 miles west-southwest of Great Inagua Island and about 370 miles southeast of Nassau. Hanna is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Hanna will move over the southeastern Bahamas Tuesday and into the central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours. An air force reconnaissance aircraft will investigate Hanna Tuesday afternoon. Some strengthening is possible on Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.
Swells from Hanna are expected to increase the risk of dangerous rip currents along portions of the southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
BREVARD COUNTY RESIDENTS PREPARE FOR HANNA
The County was trying to pump water from Fay out of the Brevard neighborhood, but it was not going anywhere fast.
Ernie Cowen was pulling up the plywood inside of his Brevard County rental property to help it air out. Tropical Storm Fay left 2 feet of water inside and mildew was growing all over the walls. His tenants lost everything.
"You've got to get rid of the dampness and the mildew," Cowen said.
He was trying to clean up just in case Hanna reaches the coast, not knowing what she and two other looming storms may bring.
Cowen's neighborhood near Range Road looked like nearly everyone was evicted. Furniture that sat in flood waters for days was on the curb and some of the homes were uninhabitable.
"I am angry. My neighbor is angry, she may not show it as much as I do, but I'm angry," said flood victim Jack Ward.
Ward and his neighbor Sharon Herford were trying to figure out how to pay for Fay's damage because they have no flood insurance. Even a few inches of rain from a storm would be too much to handle.
"My house will be flooded again and this whole neighborhood too," said Herford.
"We're blue collar workers and have money saved, but nothing compares to rebuilding a home," Jack said.
The county has been pumping water 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. There's really no place for the water to go because so much of it has already been dumped into the Saint John's River.
"One thing about it is that God will never give you move than you can deal with to get through it," said Sharon.
Channel 9 checked with Brevard County Emergency Operations and they were partially activated because of Fay.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
Brent,
The NOGAPS 12Z solution gives credence to what you are saying!
Bucman
The NOGAPS 12Z solution gives credence to what you are saying!
Bucman
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
Alrite, hears the thing. My canal has dropped at least 16" since Sunday. I live in Wellington, FL and I am wondering if my local buddies in South Florida can let me know if they are seeing this is as well??? They did it a couple of weeks ago when Fay came through; which was a good thing. I guess SFWMD is taking Hanna seriously, maybe they should send management to the post or something
J~

J~
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
Hanna burst right into that synoptic border. Don't need to say any more.
The only thing I can add is with a building High the trend should be west and towards Florida (Not -removed- just stating the obvious).
The only thing I can add is with a building High the trend should be west and towards Florida (Not -removed- just stating the obvious).
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
Hanna's convection is quite asymmetric considering the location of the circulation center. The latest IRWV is showing that moisture progressing around the tropical storm's northeast quadrant is working westward. It looks that the Atlantic ridge is working NW (north of Hanna) and this is pushing against the ongoing troughing. Overall this will allow Hanna to gradually reorganize over the next 24 hours, but I wouldn't look for any drastic changes judging by the sluggishness of the Wward working moisture fields.
- Jay
- Jay
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gatorcane wrote:Palm Beach Post in West Palm Beach area does not even mention Hanna on the front page...and are concentrating on storms that are thousands of miles away![]()
Their focus will undoubtedly change in the next 24 hours if trends continue.
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/
we seem to go through this everyday, quit looking at their website and you will be better off
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
StJoe wrote:Alrite, hears the thing. My canal has dropped at least 16" since Sunday. I live in Wellington, FL and I am wondering if my local buddies in South Florida can let me know if they are seeing this is as well??? They did it a couple of weeks ago when Fay came through; which was a good thing. I guess SFWMD is taking Hanna seriously, maybe they should send management to the post or something![]()
J~
they dropped them here as well for Fay, unforunately they have not dropped them now for Hanna. If they don't we just may have water within a foot of our back door here just north of you.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
Ok don't shoot me for asking this i'm still learning
since the cut off low is still retrograding and not showing signs of lifting out yet
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
and the trough axis seems to be pushing west just over the top of hanna
does anyone think this trough could actually kick her out to the ENE ?for a time? forget models for a second, just based on the latest synoptics.
since the cut off low is still retrograding and not showing signs of lifting out yet
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
and the trough axis seems to be pushing west just over the top of hanna
does anyone think this trough could actually kick her out to the ENE ?for a time? forget models for a second, just based on the latest synoptics.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
G-IV is out there now. Heres one of the drops from the Florida strait.
Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1008mb (Surface)
55° (from the NE)
18 knots (21 mph)
952mb
45° (from the NE)
20 knots (23 mph)
880mb
60° (from the ENE)
24 knots (28 mph)
850mb
55° (from the NE)
21 knots (24 mph)
752mb
30° (from the NNE)
16 knots (18 mph)
663mb
35° (from the NE)
19 knots (22 mph)
526mb
360° (from the N)
21 knots (24 mph)
486mb
10° (from the N)
23 knots (26 mph)
405mb
355° (from the N)
20 knots (23 mph)
236mb
345° (from the NNW)
35 knots (40 mph)
222mb
340° (from the NNW)
38 knots (44 mph)
184mb
290° (from the WNW)
53 knots (61 mph)
176mb
355° (from the N)
43 knots (49 mph)
Below 400mb it looks like little shear there. Upper levels have some strong winds though.
Significant Wind Levels...
Level
Wind Direction
Wind Speed
1008mb (Surface)
55° (from the NE)
18 knots (21 mph)
952mb
45° (from the NE)
20 knots (23 mph)
880mb
60° (from the ENE)
24 knots (28 mph)
850mb
55° (from the NE)
21 knots (24 mph)
752mb
30° (from the NNE)
16 knots (18 mph)
663mb
35° (from the NE)
19 knots (22 mph)
526mb
360° (from the N)
21 knots (24 mph)
486mb
10° (from the N)
23 knots (26 mph)
405mb
355° (from the N)
20 knots (23 mph)
236mb
345° (from the NNW)
35 knots (40 mph)
222mb
340° (from the NNW)
38 knots (44 mph)
184mb
290° (from the WNW)
53 knots (61 mph)
176mb
355° (from the N)
43 knots (49 mph)
Below 400mb it looks like little shear there. Upper levels have some strong winds though.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
On visible the center looks just east of Grand Inagua, though the surface center is probably closer to Grand Inagua.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
cpdaman wrote:Ok don't shoot me for asking this i'm still learning
since the cut off low is still retrograding and not showing signs of lifting out yet
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
and the trough axis seems to be pushing west just over the top of hanna
does anyone think this trough could actually kick her out to the ENE ?for a time? forget models for a second, just based on the latest synoptics.
The trough would have a hard time pushing Hanna out to sea because it's mostly at the upper levels. When you start to look in the mid-levels, the trough base doesn't extent much south of 35N latitude, same for the lower levels. A general rule that I use when monitoring tropical systems is that water vapor satellite imagery shows what upper level features are influencing a storm; infrared shows what's happening more in the mid-levels, and visible (or shortwave infrared) shows what's happening at the surface. The net effect of all three general levels influence a storm's movements, and for Hanna, the low and mid levels favor a more westward storm track because of ridging.
- Jay
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
That is definitely a possibility and I was thinking the same thing. That would end up being the cyclonic loop that the GFDL was showing. That may help or hurt depending on how long it takes, whether it allows more time for ridging to backfill and further west component, or if it loops far enoguh to the east that it would take her north of Florida.


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- Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
short term i think NW shear is about to pick up for about 4-8 hours any moment now
based on the WV loop showing the base of the upper level trough axis moving west (to the north of hanna) and on the western periphery of this base/axis the NW shear is furious
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif
nexrad do you concur or am i out to lunch
based on the WV loop showing the base of the upper level trough axis moving west (to the north of hanna) and on the western periphery of this base/axis the NW shear is furious
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif
nexrad do you concur or am i out to lunch
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
Bocadude85 wrote:EURO has central florida landfall now
The 00Z FSU MM5 ensemble was pretty far left with Hanna, too, and brought the storm along Palm Beach County's coastline before dragging it inland over the Treasure Coast. Of course, models tend to flip-around from one run to the next, so I'd not really dredge-up too much about a single model run. I'm waiting for the full slew of the 18Z guidance to come in.
- Jay
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All right JB friends and foes. He thinks this will be further east between Hilton Head and Wilmington. Also thinks that she will be east of Fl and not as bad as the hype for Fl, but worse for north. I can see his argument for not raising awareness for north because local forecasters are calling for a Fl landfall as a gut feeling and nothing bu rain here. I'm afraid that anyone north of Fl will not take Hanna seriously and will not make any preparations.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm Hanna in SE Bahamas
cpdaman wrote:short term i think NW shear is about to pick up for about 4-8 hours any moment now
based on the WV loop showing the base of the upper level trough axis moving west (to the north of hanna) and on the western periphery of this base/axis the NW shear is furious
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif
nexrad do you concur or am i out to lunch
This is a good observation, but the trough axis is only one piece of the shear puzzle. Take a look to the north and notice the strong upper low that's driving the trough. It's retrograding west this afternoon. Meanwhile, the upper ridge over the Eastern Gulf is moving little. The airflow between these two systems is what's prompting the strong shearing NW of Hanna. Given that the upper low is edging west, I'd expect that the shear over Hanna may relax a little in the short-term, and the upper level divergence NE of the tropical storm will probably improve some. Also, with Gustav weakening and moving farther away from the Gulf ridge, I'd expect that upper feature to move a little west. That, too, might relax the upper level gradients some.
Overall, it looks pretty much like a status-quo for the next 12 to 24 hours for Hanna, with continued shear effects on the storm's NW quadrant, but with some possible slight improvement for the upper environment near the center and towards the ENE of the center.
- Jay
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- CourierPR
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OuterBanker wrote:All right JB friends and foes. He thinks this will be further east between Hilton Head and Wilmington. Also thinks that she will be east of Fl and not as bad as the hype for Fl, but worse for north. I can see his argument for not raising awareness for north because local forecasters are calling for a Fl landfall as a gut feeling and nothing bu rain here. I'm afraid that anyone north of Fl will not take Hanna seriously and will not make any preparations.
If Hanna hits FL he will say he predicted that also.
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