ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[stayawaynow]

Alrite, hears the thing. My canal has dropped at least 16" since Sunday. I live in Wellington, FL and I am wondering if my local buddies in South Florida can let me know if they are seeing this is as well??? They did it a couple of weeks ago when Fay came through; which was a good thing. I guess SFWMD is taking Hanna seriously, maybe they should send management to the post or something
J~

I am also in Wellington and the canal behind our house is still nearly to the top of the drain pipe.

[KWT]

Agree Jay I think the shear won't really ease off for another 12-18hrs but given the convective power Hanna has displayed, once again bursting near the circulation despite the obvious shear, I wouldn't be all that surprised if once it works the moisture round then it could strengthen somewhat faster.

[NEXRAD]

All right JB friends and foes. He thinks this will be further east between Hilton Head and Wilmington. Also thinks that she will be east of Fl and not as bad as the hype for Fl, but worse for north. I can see his argument for not raising awareness for north because local forecasters are calling for a Fl landfall as a gut feeling and nothing bu rain here. I'm afraid that anyone north of Fl will not take Hanna seriously and will not make any preparations.

I'm not sure about the media, but I'm focusing on the Florida concerns as they're coming within the 48-hour window for Hanna's influence. Any direct storm impacts for the Carolinas would not be felt until at least late Friday, so there's more time for monitoring the system for those locations. This mentioned, Hanna remains a threat for the entire Southeastern US, and with Ike and Josephine behind, everyone should really have their hurricane supplies on-hand for the season by now.

- Jay

[gatorcane]

I am preparing for some intense HANNA WOBBLE WARS between Florida and the Carolinas once she makes her move NW.....

[KWT]

The thing I will say is I suspect if this take longer to get off to the NW then the motion may allow for a slightly less sharp NW if that makes sense and that would be obviously more of a threat to central/northern Florida.

Given the fact this is a large tropical storm I think once the shear does ease down it'll fling a lot of moisture across the SE states even if it does remain out to sea and thus a TS warning will probably be needed anyway.

[AdamFirst]

Come on Hanna, make your move...I don't know about you guys but I hate it when these storms do this.

[txwatcher91]

I am preparing for some intense HANNA WOBBLE WARS between Florida and the Carolinas once she makes her move NW.....

That will definately happen, meanwhile I hope I get some rain from it.

[Evil Jeremy]

Tonight will begin a few sleepless nights. The next few model runs will be very important, and if I still see a westward trend by the 11 PM advisory tonight, I am going to prepare for TS winds.

I do not think that there will be school in some areas of SFL on Thursday if this trend continues.

[alienstorm]

Center continues to move off to the ESE. new vortex message coming in.

[tallywx]

I am preparing for some intense HANNA WOBBLE WARS between Florida and the Carolinas once she makes her move NW.....

It really should've already begun, but I've been judiciously avoiding any posts today 'les I be called a hypocrite for chastising all the LA/MS/TX folks about Gustav and the gap between desired perception and reality.

in any case, it's abundantly clear that this SE repositioning of the center relative to NHC's 11 a.m. coordinates just increases the likelihood of a further east landfall...i'm thinking myrtle beach, sc then over raleigh/durham j/k j/k. my gut feeling is telling me N-Central FL, if only because the farthest south I've agreed to chase this is Savannah, meaning it'll HAVE to go in south of that.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

hmmm... maybe Hanna gets ripped to shreds as she slowly moves over Haiti. Not very good for the poor people of Hiati, but that too is now looking like a possibility.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I am preparing for some intense HANNA WOBBLE WARS between Florida and the Carolinas once she makes her move NW.....

It really should've already begun, but I've been judiciously avoiding any posts today 'les I be called a hypocrite for chastising all the LA/MS/TX folks about Gustav and the gap between desired perception and reality.

in any case, it's abundantly clear that this SE repositioning of the center relative to NHC's 11 a.m. coordinates just increases the likelihood of a further east landfall...i'm thinking myrtle beach, sc then over raleigh/durham j/k j/k. my gut feeling is telling me N-Central FL, if only because the farthest south I've agreed to chase this is Savannah, meaning it'll HAVE to go in south of that.

Couldn't a delay in her movement result in a west shift to her path, not an easterly shift, due to the progression of the ridge further west?

[gatorcane]

yes, the longer she meanders around, the longer the ridge can build into the north of her pushing her more WNW instead of NW.

[NEXRAD]

yes, the longer she meanders around, the longer the ridge can build into the north of her pushing her more WNW instead of NW.

I generally agree. The longer Hanna stays over the SE Bahamas, then the greater the potential that the upper trough will shift east and allow the subtropical ridge to build NW, possibly merging with ridging situated over parts of the Ern US. Whether this allows a NW or more WNW track is debateable, but I'd not liken a farther south (or east) location to be a necessary indicator of a future more east track, just as I'd not expect a more west position to designate a more west eventual track. The actual future track really depends more on how the steering factors evolve rather than Hanna's physical location at any instant.

- Jay

[tallywx]

Couldn't a delay in her movement result in a west shift to her path, not an easterly shift, due to the progression of the ridge further west?

Not necessarily. First of all, most models didn't have this moving for another 15 hours or so anyway, so any repositioning now to the SE, as long as it starts moving then, would just shift the track to the east.

[Evil Jeremy]

The models have not really been trending one way or another overall over the past run. However, 2 models now show a clear landfall in Florida, as compared to a few models showing a landfall around the FL/GA border in the 06z run. Interestingly, while the easternmost model in the 06z run has changed, the actual point where it made landfall has not, and was taken by another model, the CMC.

Overall, the difference with the 06z and 12z runs are that the models have not been "trending" west, they have been "spreading" west. Through my unprofessional eyes of course.

06z Run: http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/299/models3fs9.gif
12z Run: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_08.gif

[KWT]

Indeed the simple equation is the longer it takes to lift out from its current slow drift southwards the further south the threat shifts. To what extent right now remains to be seen however.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Couldn't a delay in her movement result in a west shift to her path, not an easterly shift, due to the progression of the ridge further west?

Not necessarily. First of all, most models didn't have this moving for another 15 hours or so anyway, so any repositioning now to the SE, as long as it starts moving then, would just shift the track to the east.

The 12z NOGAPS is the west outlier with a s, Fla landfall.

[txwatcher91]

Hanna has some of the most convergence I have seen in awhile.

[KWT]

The other thing I didn;t menton is I suspect with the motion of the LLC over the last 6-9hrs we are seeing a very slow cyclonic loop like what the 12z GFDL shows and that will eventually mean the NW motion starting. Exactly when though is the big question.