CourierPR wrote:tallywx wrote:TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:
Couldn't a delay in her movement result in a west shift to her path, not an easterly shift, due to the progression of the ridge further west?
Not necessarily. First of all, most models didn't have this moving for another 15 hours or so anyway, so any repositioning now to the SE, as long as it starts moving then, would just shift the track to the east.
Tallywx, please see NEXRAD's comments about a building subtropical ridge. I've also taken note of your location with regard to your forecast.
Oh, I agree completely with NEXRAD's comments about a building ridge. If Hanna sits around longer than expected, then IMO Florida landfall is a certainty. All I'm saying is that IF Hanna only stalls for another 15 hours or so, then she will not have stalled any longer than the models are foreseeing. Thus, the models at that juncture are already accurately depicting the sort of ridge that Hanna will be dealing with when forecasting her movement. Therefore, any eastward shift of Hanna now off those model tracks, just as long as she starts moving NW in 15 hours as the current models show, would merely shift those model tracks eastward laterally.
and btw, I note YOUR location when responding to your post.
