ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

they don't mention Florida in this advisory, maybe a good sign?

"IN FACT...THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS" (TPC 5PM advisory, 9/2/08, Hanna).

As many of us (and the TPC) have emphasized for the last day or so, it's really just too close a call to say that Hanna is or is not going to affect any one particular part of the SE US.

- Jay

But now it reads:

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

instead of

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

The SE USA encompasses Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. In that sense, the Carolinas were not mentioned in the previous advisory.

[Brent]

they don't mention Florida in this advisory, maybe a good sign?

"IN FACT...THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT EACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS" (TPC 5PM advisory, 9/2/08, Hanna).

As many of us (and the TPC) have emphasized for the last day or so, it's really just too close a call to say that Hanna is or is not going to affect any one particular part of the SE US.

- Jay

But now it reads:

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

instead of

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

It's a more general statement. Florida is in the Southeast, but it also refers to at least Georgia and the Carolinas.

[gatorcane]

so I think the NHC does not want to bite on the westward trend in the models just yet....

I think if the 18Z comes in with a westward trend......then they may bite at the 11pm EST advisory....

and the NHC wants to actually see the NW movement start to happen instead of SSE which was not really forecasted.

But I do think the NHC track is slightly in the right side of the dynamic model consensus at this point.

[Evil Jeremy]

so I think the NHC does not want to bite on the westward trend in the models just yet....

I think if the 18Z comes in with a westward trend......then they may bit at the 11pm EST advisory....

and the NHC wants to actually see the NW movement start to happen.

If there is a westward trend in the upcoming runs, which is possible but not likely because the models always to east in the afternoon, and west in the morning, you can expect a moderate shift to the west. Tonight is going to be a sleepless night for me.

[SouthFLTropics]

But now it reads:

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.

instead of

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.[/quote][/quote]

I don't think I would read too much into this. I believe that they are now encompassing a larger area because we are getting closer to the time that the entire SE CONUS would be affected as opposed to Florida. They did mention SE CONUS and Florida is in the SE CONUS so ipso facto they did mention Florida.

Also to note is the 18z runs will be starting soon. It will be interesting to see where they take her...I don't know how much more excitement I can stand...

SFT

[deltadog03]

I don't blame them for not shifting too far to the west...Should have maybe a little bit, but I wanna see some sustained movement too....

[boca]

I'll sleep and just be surprised in the morning.

[KWT]

Yep I think the key run set is the 0z, if they also stay more westerly then the NHC will probably have to trend westward with thier forecast I'd have thought and given that Hanna is forecast to come quite close to Florida anyway...

[captain east]

I'll sleep and just be surprised in the morning.

I'm already used to it lol

[KWT]

Thats a good point Delta,. The thing is right now we have at best only a drift so its not easy to gauge where its heading in the short term. I still think its doing a cyclonic loop but lets see what happens in the next 12hrs.

[cpdaman]

I know everyone on the east coast is getting really anxious about this system

and i still think it is likely she landfalls along the SE coast somewhere but i want to bring up an option that seems to have gone mostly unsaid or discussed about

but i think the chance for DR to significantly erode this sytem is increasing by the hour and i would not be in the least surprised for hanna to make landfall there later tonite

given the trends we have seen since yesterday with the low sinking south 2 full degrees latitude she only needs one more degree and she is over the mountains lands of the DR

i think this is about a 20% shot , i would actually say more but it seems the driving force of the se movement is abating.

i was just posting this because this option seems to be ignored, simply because the models don't show it, just like they didn't show it losing 2 degrees latitude in the last day or so.

[Jevo]

It's cool that theyre letting Rhome author up some discussions finally.. I remember him when he he was a forecaster for the TAFB

[KWT]

Well its not totally impossible cpdaman and I'm a little surprised they've not put up warnings in DR/Haiti given the drift SE now would put it pretty close to the TS force winds...however the models are in total agreement and I think all we are seeing is a cyclonic loop that was suggested by the GFDL today.

[Evil Jeremy]

Well its not totally impossible cpdaman and I'm a little surprised they've not put up warnings in DR/Haiti given the drift SE now would put it pretty close to the TS force winds...however the models are in total agreement and I think all we are seeing is a cyclonic loop that was suggested by the GFDL today.

There are TS warnings for Haiti and the DR. In fact, I think they have been up since 2 PM or 11 AM.

[RL3AO]

Finally some signs that it hasn't weakened. 66kt FL in SE quad.

[Evil Jeremy]

Why are all of the titles for the TC topics being changed to Caps and including their numbers and taking away their locations?

[cpdaman]

so basically this thing (hanna) is not moving west or north until the cut off low near new england decided to lift north (then ridge builds back west)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

that still shows signs of moving west so we have awhile to hanna moves her but west near anyone

and after looking at wv loop i think her motion will change to ESE soon, i don't see a cyclonic loop just yet, maybe tommorow IF the trough in NEW england moves out

[fci]

5PM track has shifted east. Again.

You can't say again, because the trend has been westward for the past 2 advisories. In addition to that, the new track moved a little bit westward for now, but the 3 day point is a little bit more east.

Actually, according to the "How Close will it get" from StormCarib; (http://stormcarib.com/closest.cgi)
Hanna will come as close as:
5 PM today- 118.6 miles from me
11 AM today distance was 105
5 AM today was 144.8
11 PM last night it was 166.
5 PM yesterday was 130.5.
11 AM yesterday was 134.3

So, from MY perspective it shifted way left this morning and a little right this afternoon and has yo-yo'd quite a bit.

[RL3AO]

New VDM fix about 20 miles east of previous fix.

[HURAKAN]