ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[capepoint]

These are from 2:00 PM today, but it's just so everyone can see the models.

click for full size image

It's funny looking at that plot and seeing the UKMET being the easternmost outlier, while up to yesterday it was the westernmost outlier. Shows you how models change constantly

Yep, thats why I don't expect to see a major shift in the NHC cone at 5. The models always shift right and left every run, sometimes these shifts are very radical. NHC adds a little sanity to them. They know that in 12 hours they will shift the other way.
NHC makes small shifts in the cone, and some on here slam them or say they don't understand. But, after every storm we see that NHC was pretty close with the forcast.
It gets amusing at times.

[KWT]

Well the GFDL is still showing a Carolinas...just and the UKMO has shifted quite a lot to the east, may explain why thr 12z UKMO has Ike further north than the rest of the guidence.

[deltadog03]

That can't be right...That image....is not right...GFS is not out yet and the HWRF and GFDL are not as well. I saw that same thing yesterday and noted that those plots were wrong.

[UpTheCreek]

These are from 2:00 PM today, but it's just so everyone can see the models.

click for full size image

It's funny looking at that plot and seeing the UKMET being the easternmost outlier, while up to yesterday it was the westernmost outlier. Shows you how models change constantly

Yep, thats why I don't expect to see a major shift in the NHC cone at 5. The models always shift right and left every run, sometimes these shifts are very radical. NHC adds a little sanity to them. They know that in 12 hours they will shift the other way.
NHC makes small shifts in the cone, and some on here slam them or say they don't understand. But, after every storm we see that NHC was pretty close with the forcast.
It gets amusing at times.

It's fascinating to me, even with the computer models, that they can forecast the direction of this storm. I showed this storm's plot to a friend and told him that it's forecast to come northwest after all the meandering south. He would've bet money that it'll go nowhere near the CONUS. Maybe I should take his money?

[HURRICANELONNY]

I'm pretty sure Hanna will start on a NW heading tonight or tomorrow. How strong she gets is all dependant on the northerly shear letting up. At this point the center could be over Miami and it would be a partly sunny and breezy day. I think Georgia is the landfall spot. I'm sure it has been a long time since Georgia got a landfalling Hurricane. My guess is North Fl./ Georgia border.

[Bocadude85]

will someone post a link for the 18z gfs

[Evil Jeremy]

will someone post a link for the 18z gfs

It has not started yet, but when it does, you can find it here. What is currently up is yesterday's run, and today's run should be starting in about 5 minutes:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Evil Jeremy]

Run starting, starting position further SW than the 24 hour frame from yesterday's 18z run.

[SouthFLTropics]

will someone post a link for the 18z gfs

It has not started yet, but when it does, you can find it here. What is currently up is yesterday's run, and today's run should be starting in about 5 minutes:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

The run has started...Looks like good initialization...

SFT

[ExBailbonds]

Heres a link to the gfs 18z 10 loop http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

and the 85v loop http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Note: Hit refresh new frames will add as they come in

[SouthFLTropics]

So far the 18z GFS out to 24 hours looks to be a bit east of the 12z run...

SFT

[KWT]

Yep very interesting but we need to see whether that continues further out because if it remains more easterly then before it will come into closer agreement with the easterly UKMO.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is farther east on this run.

[Evil Jeremy]

18Z GFS is farther east on this run.

Indeed, but I expected this. I expect the 00z and 06z runs to show a westward trend. Remember though, only the GFDL and HWRF models are based heavily on the GFS, so they might shift east as well.

[Philly12]

Its further east because its faster to the north. The 54hr plot of the 18Z shows roughly the same lat as the 66hr plot of the 12Z. It's a little faster than the building ridge this run.

[deltadog03]

Looks like the 18z has sped things up....So, the eastward movement is shown....

[KWT]

Yep its get more motion because the foward speed is quicker so the ridge doesn't build in quickly enough to make the track where it was on the 12z. The GFDL will be interesting to see if it agree with the GFS.

[StormTracker]

The 18Z GFS shows Hanna rolling to the right and then heading NW! Is it possible that she could roll to the left and then head more WNW because of her position under the trough/front & westward building high? I know at this this time she is drifting in a SSE direction. Is that why she will probably roll right?

[Philly12]

It also looks like there's a jog NNE between hrs 06 and 12.

[KWT]

I think thats actually qute possible if its performing some sort of cyclonic loop before starting to lift out.