ATL: IKE Discussion

[ROCK]

no weakness seen there.....

[tolakram]

I predict, unofficially, that Ike will be generally west of it's current location in the next day (or hour) and probably further west after that, at least for a few days. This is a west storm.



Not something I can say of Hanna anyway!

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[HURAKAN]

no weakness seen there.....

Not entirely true.

5 PM Discussion:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE EXACT STEERING REGIME AT DAY 5 REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RECONCILES THIS BY SHOWING A MORE OR LESS
WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

[catastrophic]

nice blow up over the center

[KWT]

Yep Rock for now I think its wise the NHC stick with the main cluster of models...though the ones that dive WSW are nearly all GFS based... Nogaps is similar but suggestive of a north of west motion before Cuba, ECM is slightly different and UKMO...is out there!

Indeed Ike is trying to wrap, its slowly but surely getting there as well it seems compared with 12hrs ago its made good progress, I'd place it at 60kts now.

[Stormcenter]

My "early" vote is for a more northerly course. It's kind of hard to imagine
Ike not following his sister.

[KWT]

That vis imagery there catastrophic, is kind of suggestive of an eye possibly emerging now, its shallow but it does look interesting and if thats the case its a little north of the forecasted plots.

I think this could well be a hurricane in about 12hrs time, finally one east of 60W

[HURAKAN]

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't see this being a fish....Usually the models can see this better than we can, so I trust them, since almost all are in agreement. Had this been an invest and it was showing this, I would wonder, but they obviously are seeing a strong ridge with zero weakenss to pull this out to sea...doesn't look good and very well could be a major at this point. I know Jeff Masters has been worried about this one.

[KWT]

Agreed CZ i see a major hurricane out of this as well some time down the line and given its current trend of organisation I wouldn't rule out one within 72hrs as the heat content only increases from now on for Ike.

Also if that is the eye feature starting to come through then its certainly north of the forecasted position, not by a huge amount but north none the less and it may make a big difference down the road for Cuba if the NHC track remains on course, though note there is a pretty big cone of uncertainty by that time...

[ConvergenceZone]

Agreed CZ i see a major hurricane out of this as well some time down the line and given its current trend of organisation I wouldn't rule out one within 72hrs as the heat content only increases from now on for Ike.

Also if that is the eye feature starting to come through then its certainly north of the forecasted position, not by a huge amount but north none the less and it may make a big difference down the road for Cuba if the NHC track remains on course, though note there is a pretty big cone of uncertainty by that time...

Yep, and I think on the latest discussion, they have it JUST BELO Major status as a really high cat 2 can, so perhaps they may move it to cat 3 on the next update or the one thereafter....There does suppose to be some moderate shear though, so we'll have to see how that plays out.

[KWT]

Shear forecasts in the open Atlantic often aren't great, as Derek said in the pro section there isn't quite the same quality of data as there is closer to land.

If this one makes it to a hurricane then expect the advisory to show this making it to major status.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Nice banding eye develop and reds wraping around. I say 65 knots.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/avn-l.jpg

[Brent]

Hurricane at 11pm IMO.

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane Ike sounds right!

[KWT]

Yeah its pretty tough to ignore the eye feature now, the vis and now vis IR imagery prove that we have an eye feature with a nearly closed off eyewall, I strongly suspect we have a hurricane here.

The other thing is this is this does appear to be north of the forecasted track, my best guess would be 19.5 but even that may be a touch south of where it actually is.

[fasterdisaster]

IMO, this is a hurricane.

[KWT]

I'd just like to see a recent microwave pass to see if the eyewall is nearly closed off, if it is like I'm starting to suspect it may be then wee probably will see hurricane Ike.

[RL3AO]

This is the most recent microwave. Its from 2 1/2 hours ago.

[Just Joshing You]

If that is from 2hr30m ago, then it is definitely closed off now.