ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cpdaman]

not sure how broad the center is but last VDM fix shows movement may have turned to an EAST drift

this may make sense since she is now on the right side of the trough axis to her north

now it's a waiting game until the trough lifts north, watch that wV like a hawk until then no meaningful west progress

[fci]

I know everyone on the east coast is getting really anxious about this system

and i still think it is likely she landfalls along the SE coast somewhere but i want to bring up an option that seems to have gone mostly unsaid or discussed about

but i think the chance for DR to significantly erode this sytem is increasing by the hour and i would not be in the least surprised for hanna to make landfall there later tonite

given the trends we have seen since yesterday with the low sinking south 2 full degrees latitude she only needs one more degree and she is over the mountains lands of the DR

i think this is about a 20% shot , i would actually say more but it seems the driving force of the se movement is abating.

i was just posting this because this option seems to be ignored, simply because the models don't show it, just like they didn't show it losing 2 degrees latitude in the last day or so.

Your scenario is not outlandish at all.
If she continues to slide south, the DR and its effects make this a whole new ballgame and, I mentioned earlier somewhere; the East Coast may be out of play completely.
I think your 20% is probably about right but it could happen

[jlauderdal]

Yep I think the key run set is the 0z, if they also stay more westerly then the NHC will probably have to trend westward with thier forecast I'd have thought and given that Hanna is forecast to come quite close to Florida anyway...

i think they arent going to do anything until there is definitive movement

[storms in NC]

I don't blame them for not shifting too far to the west...Should have maybe a little bit, but I wanna see some sustained movement too....

Okay I maybe wrong but untill Hanna justs her butt in gear and move to the NW the models will shift back and forth. So till then and also all the Wobbles that it will do it can go west or Est of where it is Now.

Sorry I can look at the loops I just came from the eye drs. and I really can see nothing. And yes I am blind

[AdamFirst]

Water vapor imagery looks like she's jerking to the east

[capepoint]

If it were to slip a little more east, it looks to me like it would be possible to end up being a hatteras cruiser....... running up the coast just offshore and exiting at hatteras. The cone already has that type of arc, its just a little west/north.

[KWT]

not sure how broad the center is but last VDM fix shows movement may have turned to an EAST drift

this may make sense since she is now on the right side of the trough axis to her north

now it's a waiting game until the trough lifts north, watch that wV like a hawk until then no meaningful west progress

Playing out exactly like I thought it would, notice its gone from a WSW heading through to a now easterly heading in the last 18hrs, that motion should mean its about to start gaining latitude, at first slowly then eventually more and more as it lifts out eventually towards the NW. Cyclonic loop about half done.

[fasterdisaster]

...

Why are all the threads titled with the NRL name?! (08L.HANNA instead of Tropical Storm Hanna.

[DelrayMorris]

...

Why are all the threads titled with the NRL name?! (08L.HANNA instead of Tropical Storm Hanna.

This is just a guess, but...because there are so many storms out there and they keep going up and down in intensity, it's hard to keep the thread titles updated and this is nice and simple.

[stayawaynow]

...

Why are all the threads titled with the NRL name?! (08L.HANNA instead of Tropical Storm Hanna.

Maybe people got confused when they saw Karina.....a pacific storm.

[Rainband]

Please stay on topic. Posts have been deleted and suspensions are possible If this keeps up

[cpdaman]

not sure how broad the center is but last VDM fix shows movement may have turned to an EAST drift

this may make sense since she is now on the right side of the trough axis to her north

now it's a waiting game until the trough lifts north, watch that wV like a hawk until then no meaningful west progress

Playing out exactly like I thought it would, notice its gone from a WSW heading through to a now easterly heading in the last 18hrs, that motion should mean its about to start gaining latitude, at first slowly then eventually more and more as it lifts out eventually towards the NW. Cyclonic loop about half done.

watch for the next center fix in the next hour , should it show a eastward movement (not se) then this would be it's movement (only one vdm to compare it to like we currently have is not really enough to tell me this is done moving south east . Should the next VDM be southeast, then this thing starts to become greatly inhbited by the DR if not more, i think it is a small yet important piece of info for hanna's short and medium term future.

[RL3AO]

1009mb 60° 21 knots
946mb 60° 26 knots
903mb 85° 24 knots
850mb 80° 23 knots
765mb 95° 17 knots
717mb 65° 17 knots
701mb 75° 21 knots
571mb 40° 18 knots
535mb 55° 17 knots
458mb 50° 17 knots
433mb 20° 14 knots
417mb 40° 14 knots
374mb 55° 15 knots
340mb 20° 12 knots
326mb 335° 13 knots
306mb 350° 27 knots
256mb 330° 59 knots
234mb 340° 76 knots
153mb 330° 68 knots


Dropsonde from the G-IV near Great Abaco Island. Mid-level shear is quite low now, but upper level shear is insane.

[expat2carib]

Message: Heavy Rains and strong winds continue to affect Turks and Caicos Island and South Eastern Bahamas (as at 2:00p.m, September 2, 2008)
Event:
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas, southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. As at 2.00pm, September 2, 2008, the centre of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 20.6 north and longitude 72.9 west or just southeast of Great Inagua island in the southeastern Bahamas and about 420 miles southeast of Nassau.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/hr) with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280km) from the centre.
Rains and strong winds have been affecting the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas over the last 36 hours.
Prognosis:
Hanna is drifting southeastward today however, the forecast indicates that a northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight or tomorrow. On this track Hanna will be moving over the southeastern Bahamas tonight and central Bahamas tomorrow and produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated amounts of up to 12 inches over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands

TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS (TCI)
Impact
Hurricane HANNA has been battering the islands of the TCI with strong winds, high seas and very heavy rain that at times are accompanied by thunder and lightning. As a result there is widespread flooding throughout all the islands. These conditions were being felt throughout the day and still continue. There are reports of fallen trees and minor damage to roofs. Preliminary damage assessment will commence as soon as it is safe to do.

Response:
The National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) which serves as the coordinating centre for all the islands of the TCI has been activated and is being manned by the staff of the Office of Disaster and Emergencies.
Search and rescue operations are being

Airports:
All airports were closed at 13.30hrs on Monday, September 1.

Casualties:
No deaths have been reported. Reports of missing persons on
the island of Providenciales are being investigated by the police.

Shelters:
Many persons have left their homes in low lying areas and are seeking shelter with family and friends on higher ground. Some churches are also accommodating persons in need of shelter. Of the shelters activated, 12 persons are in shelters on Grand Turk, and 225 on Providenciales. The shelter at the Community Centre on Middle Caicos had to be closed due to the ingress of water and the shlter at Mt. Oliver Baptist church was activated instead.

Damage:
EOC Providenciales:
The building has suffered minor damage to one section of the roof and a window to the front of the building is leaking

Housing:
Minor damage to roofs reported

Utilities:
Fallen utility poles have resulted in loss of electricity to the islands of Salt Cay, Grand Turk South Caicos, Middle Caicos. Half the island of North Caicos is without electricity.

Roads: The causeway connecting middle and North Caicos is impassable

BAHAMAS
Impact:
Hanna is still affecting the southeastern Bahamas primarily the islands of Inagua and Mayagua. The National Emergency Operations Centre remain activated and continue to provide advice to the public. Assessment teams are in place and will be conducting assessments as soon as it is safe to do so.

Regional Response:
The CDERA Coordinating Unit remains in regular contact with the national disaster offices of the Bahamas and the turks and to provide support and advice.

The Regional Response Mechanism (RRM) remains on standby.

CDERA has been collaborating with the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology for reviewing and analyzing the progress and development of tropical systems in the Atlantic.
In this regard the CDERA CU is also monitoring the development two other tropical systems, Tropical Storm Ike and Josephine.
As at 11.00a.m. September 2, 2008, the centre of Tropical Storm Ike was located near latitude 18.9 north and longitude 45.0 west.
As at 11.00a.m. September 2, 2008, the centre of Tropical Storm Joesphine was located near latitude 13.2 north and longitude 25.3 west
CDERA will continue to monitor the situation and provide advisories as necessary.

[Evil Jeremy]

The G-IV data won't be ingested until the 00z and 06z model runs, so those should be interesting.

[cpdaman]

TWC just made a good point one that bodes well for keeping hanna weak for a bit more

anyone notice the dry air getting thrown into this storm from the NW not good for hanna

probably a bit of mid level dry air putting the kibbash on convection

now all we need is a ULL to form to her NNW and introduce her to : shear round 5

[jaxfladude]

Man Hanna is a real though one to figure out for now..hope she just goes East and away from the CONUS after all....

[StJoe]

Hanna seems to be really shredded right now, but I think shear will top off in a couple of hours and she will start her northerly turn, jmho!

[KWT]

cpdaman, thats an interesting point there is some dry air outside the circulation and the shear is helping to get that mid level dry air into the circulation but when you've got such huge convergence and upper divergence it should mix out very readily.

[RL3AO]

Still drifting east.