ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[cpdaman]

the strange thing on the new GFS is not the first part IMO , it is the medium term 24-48 hours when it turns it AFTER the loop and bends it back WNW/W it has it going right toward palm beach and then turning north just east of that area.

some may say more east on this run but it moves on a line toward WPB - Port st. lucie area and then turns north 30 miles off the coast, this would cause much anxiety for palm beach/ martin/ st lucie and brevard county's then all the way up the coast

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFDL Shifts Well East...SC Border

[Weatherfreak14]

18Z GFDL Shifts Well East...SC Border

GA/SC Border or SC/NC Border???

[txwatcher91]

:uarrow: No doubt about that, I was just saying landfall is farther N. From Miami to Maine will likely have effects from Hanna.

I'm not sold yet though -- lets see if other models follow. The GFS model could back off the west trend in the next run...

Considering the last few GFS runs have all trended west with its closest point to Florida's east coast...I think its a trend.

Well 18Z gfs shifted much farther N and E with landfall around Charleston SC area. Just goes to show how uncertain the models still are this close out. NAM interestingly moved landfall from central FL to SC also.

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z GFDL Shifts Well East...SC Border

GA/SC Border or SC/NC Border???

More like dead Center SC..My bad..

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z HWRF Comes real close to ECFL the heads in at Jax area..

[KWT]

GFS based models shifting back east, as did the UKMO. models still don't seem totally settled on the upper set-up across the western Atlantic it seems.

[Bocadude85]

anyone notice they always shift east in the evening and west in the mornings also arent the 18z and 6z runs less accurate then the 00z and 12z

[meteorologyman]

These models are so uncertain that I wouldn't worry if cone moves over my area until she starts moving NW

[NEXRAD]

GFS based models shifting back east, as did the UKMO. models still don't seem totally settled on the upper set-up across the western Atlantic it seems.

Well surmised; the upper levels across the SW Atlantic, Ern Con-US, and Gulf of Mexico are the most complicated I've seen in a long time. IRWV is quite a meteorological feast, though that doesn't really help the model guidance any.

- Jay

[storms in NC]

Do we really have a TS Hanna Now?

[sunnyday]

Is S.E. Fla likely to get trop storm watches/warnings tomorrow or Fri? I app reciate your opinions.

[artist]

anyone notice they always shift east in the evening and west in the mornings also arent the 18z and 6z runs less accurate then the 00z and 12z

I have, it has happened with Fay as well as with Hanna now if I recall correctly. That's why we were in constant flux here.

[stormchazer]

Do we really have a TS Hanna Now?

I was wondering the same thing. She looks like she is taking a beating.

[GTStorm]

So does the 11 PM advisory get pushed further east? methinks it does.....looking better and better for Florida. Not so good for NC.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[MusicCityMan]

PLEASE DO NOT say it is "looking better" FOR FLORIDA. Our threat is as big as everybody else's.. The storm isn't north of our latitude or dead yet..

[Bane]

Do we really have a TS Hanna Now?

yes, we do.

[Steve H.]

you have to admit though, Hanna is not looking good right now. How she will look in another 24 hours remains to be seen.

[Bane]

the shear is chopping her down, but that should lessen tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]