ATL: IKE Discussion

[HURAKAN]

If that is from 2hr30m ago, then it is definitely closed off now.

I agree. Ike is getting better organized by the minute.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 011300.GIF

What a small system!!!

[Just Joshing You]

And it's still twice as large as Tracy - at least!

[Vortex]

This has the potential to become a very strong hurricane...Compact for now which often allows these smaller storms to ramp up very quick.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, small storms can develop really quickly, but on the flipside, they also can be disrupted much more easily by shear(which I think the last discussion mentioned), and of course if it travel over land..

[fasterdisaster]

I don't think compact storms weaken faster over land than big ones? I could be wrong I just have never heard or seen this.

[Vortex]

Like a comet coming out of left field...

[Stormcenter]

I don't think compact storms weaken faster over land than big ones? I could be wrong I just have never heard or seen this.

I believe they do weaken quicker then larger systems.

[KWT]

Does look very good indeed though that suggests the eyewall is still open but that doesn't matter a huge deal this probably is still around 65kts now and I fully expect the NHC will go ahead and upgrade and show it as a major as well at the end of the advisory.

[Just Joshing You]

Does look very good indeed though that suggests the eyewall is still open but that doesn't matter a huge deal this probably is still around 65kts now and I fully expect the NHC will go ahead and upgrade and show it as a major as well at the end of the advisory.

That microwave pass was from 2 hrs 30 mins before the eye opened.

[Annie Oakley]

Like a comet coming out of left field...

So beautiful already lol......I dontknow how NHC or all of the great ones here at Storm2k can keep up with all these systems-what a challenge. Makes these hot summer daze go by so fast.

[KWT]

JJY, I was refering to the IR imagery which showed a region of very weak convection on the southern side, thats probably where the gap was but I'm fully expecting that gap is filling as we speak.

No doubt in my mind this is a hurricane now...

[tolakram]

[KWT]

Looking at that tolakram the center is as about 285 for the long term motion but I suspect the center has jogged to the WNW..either that or the eye has set-up further north then the NHC estimated, that may be the more likely answer I suppose.

[CrazyC83]

It doesn't look fully closed yet to me. I'd say 60 kt right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I strongly disagree, this looks better then Gustav was through 90% of its time over the gulf of Mexico. 1# 90% closed eye, that is clear 2# red eywall. I would say 70 knots.

[KWT]

Hmm I think its borderline, I have to agree I'm not sure its got a totally closed eyewall butr the convection on the northern side is deep and its well wrapped around a pretty obvious eye even on the vis imagery, suggest to me maybe minimal cat-1, I'll split the difference and say 65kts

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hmm I think its borderline, I have to agree I'm not sure its got a totally closed eyewall butr the convection on the northern side is deep and its well wrapped around a pretty obvious eye even on the vis imagery, suggest to me maybe minimal cat-1, I'll split the difference and say 65kts

I would of said north of Cuba..In which Gustav looked to be around 80 knots based on IR,,,that he was mostly around 70-75 knots. With maybe 75 knots at landfall. But looks are not everything. I believe this is 70 knots.

Of course Gustav was a major for most of that time, and just under that at landfall. I also believe this could become a major.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

No Hurricane yet according to BEST TRACK at 00:00 UTC: Winds remain at 55kts.

AL, 09, 2008090300, , BEST, 0, 197N, 472W, 55, 996, TS,