ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[AdamFirst]

Hurricane watches for Northern Bahamas...heck the southern Bahamas has been under a Hurricane Warning for like 2 days

[cpdaman]

shifted east .....now floridians may be able to breath a bit easier (but they should wait until this thing actually start with a NNW motion shown on track over next 36 hours) before getting too excited about this shift. and also make sure it doesn't bend back wnw after 36 hours....

scary thing was i was just watching "it could happen tommorrow" with a big storm moving into the Ga/sc area

[SouthFLTropics]

And now the waiting game begins again...We wait for the 00z models to begin...This run and the upcoming 12z run will be key as to the future track and intensity. What will we wake up and see tomorrow morning at 5:00AM. Will be very interesting indeed.

SFT

[BensonTCwatcher]

988 mb and maybe 55 kt winds. Looks like the ridge is just about built west to Hanna's position. The adverse shear should be on the wane. The 00Zmodels will have the upper air data in them. Should finally be moving NW in the morning.

[Blown Away]

00Z models with recon data should be very accurate.

[gatorcane]

shifted east .....now floridians may be able to breath a bit easier (but they should wait until this thing actually start with a NNW motion shown on track over next 36 hours) before getting too excited about this shift. and also make sure it doesn't bend back wnw after 36 hours....

scary thing was i was just watching "it could happen tommorrow" with a big storm moving into the Ga/sc area

I wouldn't say Floridians should breath a sigh of relief just yet. The cone is inland FL up the east coast from about Palm Beach County north. As the NHC mentioned, its prudent not to concentrate on the line. If Hanna takes the left side of the cone or the models shift left, the effects along the SE FL coast and East Coast of Florida would be dramatically different assuming Hanna follows NHC intensity guidance.

Now did Florida get a slight win with the 11pm EST NHC forecast? Yes but not out of the woods just yet.

[lbvbl]

floridians should probably be more concerned about ike at this point

[cpdaman]

988 mb and maybe 55 kt winds. Looks like the ridge is just about built west to Hanna's position. The adverse shear should be on the wane. The 00Zmodels will have the upper air data in them. Should finally be moving NW in the morning.

benson do you see any signs the NE ULL low is lifting out

and what are the players that will allow the this NE ULL to kick out , if you know

i am very curious about this, thanks

[bahamaswx]

Hurricane watches for Northern Bahamas...heck the southern Bahamas has been under a Hurricane Warning for like 2 days

Indeed. Hurricane warning for 2 days and nothing but clear sunny skies.

[Philly12]

00Z models with recon data should be very accurate.

I wouldn't say very accurate, but they will be better. The models will become more accurate when they can be initialized with an actual heading and forward speed. Tomorrow will tell the story.

[lbvbl]

so, based on the current track.. PBC Schools closed thurs? Yes? No? Maybe?

[Philly12]

so, based on the current track.. PBC Schools closed thurs? Yes? No? Maybe?

My guess is no..

[BensonTCwatcher]

You can see on the WV loops the ridge building W at about 60W Note the convection starting at 22N 60W on the leading edge. Also, the ULL is now sinking south ans looking like it will actually cut off. Also I think the high level winds (NW shear) from Gustav's powerful anticyclone is abating (now over the GOM) Pattern change pretty much on the global models forecast.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

so, based on the current track.. PBC Schools closed thurs? Yes? No? Maybe?

I'm leaning towards no they won't be closed...based on the current track.

If Hanna intensifies and takes the left side of the cone of uncertainty...then its possible.

[fasterdisaster]

Hurricane watches for Northern Bahamas...heck the southern Bahamas has been under a Hurricane Warning for like 2 days

Hell, it seems l ike as soon as the Hanna warning goes away Ike's goes up.

[RyanMcD29]

Even though it's looking pretty certain it's not going to make landfall anywhere outside the southeast, it looks like it's getting closer and closer to the NYC area as a tropical storm over land with each projected path that comes out and the cone of uncertainty moves more towards the east

[cpdaman]

so, based on the current track.. PBC Schools closed thurs? Yes? No? Maybe?

should the following pan out.....and i don't have any confidence in it ( as another poster said by 11am tommorrow morning they may .....if she is moving)


FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.4N 77.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

i see school in session...the above co-ordinates are her thursday at 8pm position so friday may be the day for no-school...perhaps a half day thursday should the models shift west because the above position is about 120 miles off the coast with highest winds just offshore..

should give a rare monster NE swell from boca north though in case anyone wants to go to the beach (should she be well offshore) and watch the power of the ocean

[Deb321]

shifted east .....now floridians may be able to breath a bit easier (but they should wait until this thing actually start with a NNW motion shown on track over next 36 hours) before getting too excited about this shift. and also make sure it doesn't bend back wnw after 36 hours....

scary thing was i was just watching "it could happen tommorrow" with a big storm moving into the Ga/sc area

Odd you say that on Saturday I watched that show about a major hitting Savannah I think they jinxed us. I'm south of Savannah so my eyes are glued to Storm2k.

[cpdaman]

so, based on the current track.. PBC Schools closed thurs? Yes? No? Maybe?

I'm leaning towards no they won't be closed...based on the current track.

If Hanna intensifies and takes the left side of the cone of uncertainty...then its possible.

you know gator in my relative short history following these type of storm tracks (just off shore forecast a few days out and moving NW'ward) every time on the following day the trends have taken them evern further east of Se florida......knocking on wood.....

i also think this ull is gonna be more pesky for hanna ....how will she be moving NW by noon, with ull just to her NW (w/0 getting sheared to near death again?)

this would have me on alert in N.C