ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[BensonTCwatcher]

cpdaman,

Here's a really good visual of the GFS (which many of the other models base off it's grid)
http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/gfs.html

I expect that the ULL will beging to get cut off and ridge will continue to build in. No reason to bail on this scenario yet IMO. Unless the upper air data on the 00Z models changes the timing of all of this.

[cpdaman]

this is my last post tonite

benson does it make sense to you that hanna will move NW by noon or so tommorrow (when the ULL that is still forming to her NW now) will be right there (to her west or sw), i mean she would move right back into high shear should this forecast play out, i think this moves primarily north tommorrow, otherwise she will be riding up the ULL's rear end.

we all know the models handle ULL's poorly and this time should be no different. right now she looks like a joke (seriously lol) and this should cause the ull to have even more influence on her)

based on this speculation i bet we see a track shift east by tommorrow evening that puts upper s.c thru N.C in a higher % for landfall

[baitism]

When is the shear supposed to die down? The storm really looks bad...

[BensonTCwatcher]

well it's more about the ridge moving the system at the lower levels. At that, any ULL forming is already retrograding SW so I see the shear relaxing, convection increasing and divergence increasing aloft. IF the large ULL to teh N lifts out overnight. If that hangs up, the shear will also pick up dry air and inhibit development and slow the NW movement. The LLC will spin a long time though since the pressure is still low. We might get surpised in the morning with a ragged mess, but I am leaning to a minimal HC or at least a good convective TS with convection on the rise in the NW side. we shall see.

[UpTheCreek]

based on this speculation i bet we see a track shift east by tommorrow evening that puts upper s.c thru N.C in a higher % for landfall

Hope you're wrong about that, but by the same token I'd like to see FL get some kind of break in all of this (albeit possibly short-lived).

NC has been relatively lucky in the last couple of years. Hey, who knows....maybe she'll head due north and eventually FISH?

[Evil Jeremy]

I would say at this point that SFL is in the clear zone with Hanna. Time to turn my focus to Ike.

[fci]

so, based on the current track.. PBC Schools closed thurs? Yes? No? Maybe?

My guess is no..

If a definite track is established; i.e. she is ACTUALLY moving; I see school operating normally.

When she starts to move in a general NW direction or ANY direction with some speed; the call can be made.

If the track indicates TS force winds for Palm Beach County, then they will close the schools.
Until this is established, school will go on.

EDIT:
I have to disagree with Florida being out of the danger zone.
Again, until a firm track happens, not just forecasted or based on models; WHEN a real track is established; then the danger will or will not be known.
Personally, I think we will be OK, however, "all clear" is premature at this point!

[AdamFirst]

People are shouting all clear because they're tired of waiting for it to make a move

[Wannabewxman79]

After looking at the IR on Hanna, if she survives the night she will be lucky.

[masaji79]

I don't think Hanna can be counted out. She's been heavily sheared before and blew up to a hurricane afterwards. Hanna's sure been a tough fighter!

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

I guess based on the latest track I need to prepare for a tropical storm! That track is like almost right over me up here in Portland Maine!

[Derek Ortt]

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5gVWj ... wD92V1K000

death toll now up to 21

[Pebbles]

Gonna be honest.. I'm having a heck of a time spotting her on the IR loop.. am I the only one?

[bahamaswx]

I want to put her on ~21/72 but recon's been flying south along 72.5 and has kept reporting lower pressures all the way down to the Haitian coast. Weird.

[masaji79]

No, you're not the only one. Hanna is definitely a mess tonight.

[Pebbles]

I keep looking at the loop and thinking it's over or south of Haiti.. but I know the center of circulation is NOT suppose to be there. Keep waiting for recon updates to solve this mystery before these tired eyes head to bed

[Brent]

Ummmm, where is the center? Recon is finding no west winds way down at 20 N(11pm position was at 20.5 N)

[RL3AO]

Center just off the coast of Haiti (10 to 15 miles), about 20 miles south of previous VDM.

[jhpigott]

Center just off the coast of Haiti (10 to 15 miles), about 20 miles south of previous VDM.

so much for the cyclonic loop theory . . .

[Brent]

Who else thinks this is never going to turn NW and will just die over Hispanola?