ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

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RL3AO
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3341 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:46 am

Brent wrote:Who else thinks this is never going to turn NW and will just die over Hispanola?


Probably will. Of course that would give Ike a free pass to the east coast as well.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3342 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:48 am

Brent wrote:Who else thinks this is never going to turn NW and will just die over Hispanola?


Wouldn't be the first time it's happened (Debby, 2000). Heavily sheared systems are a pain to forecast.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3343 Postby Pebbles » Wed Sep 03, 2008 12:58 am

000
URNT12 KNHC 030539
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082008
A. 03/051530Z
B. 20 deg 04 min N
072 deg 31 min W

C. 850 mb 1363 m
D. 40 kt
E. 330 deg 065 nm
F. 062 deg 043 kt
G. 328 deg 069 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 16 C/ 1525 m
J. 12 C/ 1524 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 /8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0508A HANNA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NW QUAD 045300 Z


looks like nothing at this location on sat... very interesting.. well off to bed I go and see if the situation changes in the AM
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3344 Postby RL3AO » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:03 am

UZNT13 KNHC 030553
XXAA 53058 99201 70725 08002 99994 25822 10039 00558 ///// /////
92627 22012 12020 85362 19437 11009 88999 77999
31313 09608 80515
61616 AF304 0508A HANNA OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2006N07253W 0517 MBL WND 11035 AEV 00000 DLM WND 11
025 993858 WL150 10538 075 =
XXBB 53058 99201 70725 08002 00994 25822 11903 20606 22850 19437
33844 17049
21212 00994 10039 11950 11032 22926 12021 33898 11521 44858 10512
55844 11508
31313 09608 80515
61616 AF304 0508A HANNA OB 07
62626 EYE SPL 2006N07253W 0517 MBL WND 11035 AEV 00000 DLM WND 11
025 993858 WL150 10538 075 =


I'm thinking the center has decoupled.

Flight level winds (844mb) at 8kt. Then as it falls the winds pick up to 12, then 21, then 21, then 32 and then 39kt at the surface.
Last edited by RL3AO on Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3345 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:03 am

We are now in the eclipse with the satellite imagery.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3346 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:04 am

Thunder44 wrote:We are now in the eclipse with the satellite imagery.


we have been in the eclipse for almost 2 hours we are now almost out of it.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3347 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:05 am

I think there is a chance that this will make landfall into Hati later tonight. Has to be causing a lot of rain.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3348 Postby Pebbles » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:10 am

RL3AO wrote:I'm thinking the center has decoupled.

Flight level winds (844mb) at 8kt. Then as it falls the winds pick up to 12, then 21, then 21, then 32 and then 39kt at the surface.


You might be onto something there. If you look at the recon obs also there are higher SFMR then flight level winds at times.
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#3349 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:13 am

Not very sure of this but the centered may have reformed, latest satellite imagery from the not so decent satellite shows almost no convection over the old LLC and decent convection on the southern coast of Hispaniola.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3350 Postby Nexus » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:26 am

Hurricanewatcher2007 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:We are now in the eclipse with the satellite imagery.


we have been in the eclipse for almost 2 hours we are now almost out of it.


If I'm reading this chart correctly, the eclipse lasts an extra cycle now starting today. The normal 6:15 UTC image (2:15 AM Eastern) is now in eclipse.

Eclipse chart:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/GOES/EA ... -Rout.html
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3351 Postby Deb321 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:39 am

bahamaswx wrote:
Brent wrote:Who else thinks this is never going to turn NW and will just die over Hispanola?


Wouldn't be the first time it's happened (Debby, 2000). Heavily sheared systems are a pain to forecast.


Will there be anything left of Hanna by morning. She has taken quite a beating.
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#3352 Postby Nexus » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:44 am

Looking at recon, there is a very broad area of 993-995 pressure, about 40 miles wide. The focal point, at least pressure wise, is pretty vague.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3353 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 03, 2008 1:59 am

Image
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3354 Postby Deb321 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:08 am

is Hanna still drifting south? And if so does anyone have an idea (if she survives) when the turn northward is expected?
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3355 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:12 am

Deb321 wrote:is Hanna still drifting south? And if so does anyone have an idea (if she survives) when the turn northward is expected?


Fixes from recon have her drifting east. Could be a start. Northward turn is expected very very soon.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3356 Postby T'Bonz » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:15 am

I was wondering that earlier this evening. That would be great for us, but crappy for those poor folks in Haiti. :(

I also wondered if the thing would reform. There is sure a lot of convection SOUTH of Haiti.

But I'm an amateur. NHC seems to think it'll survive this, at least according to the 2 AM update.

I can't tell by images, since the satellite is still in eclipse. I thought that ended around 3 AM EST.

Oh well. I'll check it tomorrow. It'll keep. Hanna will either survive or she won't. And Ike is right behind her. Arggh.


Brent wrote:Who else thinks this is never going to turn NW and will just die over Hispanola?
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3357 Postby Deb321 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:22 am

Brent wrote:
Deb321 wrote:is Hanna still drifting south? And if so does anyone have an idea (if she survives) when the turn northward is expected?


Fixes from recon have her drifting east. Could be a start. Northward turn is expected very very soon.


Thanks Brent I'm not very good at reading radar or recon I'm kinda new at all this. I'm kinda concerned up here in southeast Georgia so it's hard to pull myself away from the storm2k forums.
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#3358 Postby Hockey007 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 2:40 am

Umm.. What? 072400 2005N 07250W 8434 01368 9853 +164 +120 327013 014 999 999 03 985.3hpa extrapolated pressure?
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3359 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:05 am

Forecaster Stewart seems as bored and frustrated with Hanna as some of us are. Is there is actually a tropical cyclone in all that mess, thats why recon rules the day and IR well we have been through all that. Hanna is really now at the starting line, lets see what she has can do from a dead stop in terms of intensity before hitting land, confidence in track seems good with florida hopefully missing out as Ike concerns grow for the sunshine state. This will be a sprint to the finish line the next few days and someone will get their 1/2. Happy hurricane tracking as we have fast moving ike coming to keep us going for the next week after hanna leaves, at least.
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#3360 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:59 am

The tops blew off again this morning but she looks like she wants to start gaining latitude.

The ULL forming to her west should roll SW fairly quickly and allow some ridging to build back in. If Hanna does not start moving soon she is going to leave a weakness that would steer Ike further north.

Hanna looks weak this morning but 48 hours will likely make a big difference. Could still easily intensify to a cat 2 under good conditions.
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