ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Ike exhibits an "eye-like feature."

[KWT]

I think the GFDL has finally gone mad on this 06z run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Gets upto 25N around 60W...by 75W its touching east Cuba!!!

[AdamFirst]

I think the GFDL has finally gone mad on this 06z run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Gets upto 25N around 60W...by 75W its touching east Cuba!!!

Wasn't it diving below Cuba on the previous run? Perhaps it's a trend back to the north.

[jlauderdal]

I think the GFDL has finally gone mad on this 06z run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Gets upto 25N around 60W...by 75W its touching east Cuba!!!

whats wrong with that, it sees strong ridging in place, its a reasonable solution, doesnt mean it will happen though

[KWT]

jlauderdal, well its possible but no other model is showing anything even close to that sort of bend down ,the ECM sort of shows a WSW motion but not as extreme as that.

[CourierPR]

Remember, when Katrina crossed FL she dove southwest. Apparently, the high will be a monster not unlike the one that steered Andrew into south Miami-Dade County in '92.

[stormchazer]

Remember, when Katrina crossed FL she dove southwest. Apparently, the high will be a monster not unlike the one that steered Andrew into south Miami-Dade County in '92.

Could be but one model does not consensus make, especially 3+ days out. There will have to be a very strong high building to cause that much of a dip. Could happen I guess??!!

[KWT]

Well the problem is the set-up is still 4-5 days out and is so heavily dependant on Hanna which has been very poorly forecasted.

The high is strong that builds in but the models are slowly easing off the strength of that high now.

[jlauderdal]

Remember, when Katrina crossed FL she dove southwest. Apparently, the high will be a monster not unlike the one that steered Andrew into south Miami-Dade County in '92.

Could be but one model does not consensus make, especially 3+ days out. There will have to be a very strong high building to cause that much of a dip. Could happen I guess??!!

nobody said there was a consensus, the gfdl shows a sw motion around and that is reasonable even if its an outlier, dont discount a model 5 days out because its an outlier, it could be on to something or it could be out to lunch

[boca]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

I don't think Florida or the GOM have to worry about Ike, but keep an eye on it.Storms follow the weakness and Hanna is creating a weakness which should allow Ike to follow Hanna to the Carolina's.I haven't seen a strong high yet this summer and know the models are backing off on a strong high. I 'm not saying Florida or GOM is in the clear but I'm willing to bet the NHC will not have a due west track but a WNW track towards the Carolina's by tomorrow.

[Comanche]

GFDL performed great for Gustav, was the most consistent from run to run.

[KWT]

The thing to watch is firstly how long Hanna takes to clear out, the longer it takes then obviously the longer it wil ltake for the ridge to build in, if it builds in as rapidly as the GFDL suyggests then it may be right, I've got my doubts though it grows that strong...

The other thing is just how well and strongly does the ridge build back. I suspect the 06z GFS doesn't really do enough with the ridge so it recurves out near the Bahamas, however the GFDL is overdoing it I believe. Therefore I'm quite liking the ECM as its a good compramise between the two.

[Comanche]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think Florida or the GOM have to worry about Ike, but keep an eye on it.Storms follow the weakness and Hanna is creating a weakness which should allow Ike to follow Hanna to the Carolina's.I haven't seen a strong high yet this summer and know the models are backing off on a strong high. I 'm not saying Florida or GOM is in the clear but I'm willing to bet the NHC will not have a due west track but a WNW track towards the Carolina's.

If you look at the speed Hannah moves out, one can see how a ridge builds in well before Ike gets there.

[beachlover]

When do you guys with all the experience think it will become more clear whether Ike will head north or run west? We just got through Gustav by our fingernails and the thought of another GOM storm this soon is not pretty. (Gus sent us 20-foot waves and 3-foot surge, even though we were 300 miles away!)

As a native Floridian, I know panicking too soon is dumb; but I'd like to get an idea when you have more confidence in the track and whether there will be a weakness and he'll pull north or not. TIA!
Laurel

[boca]

Comanche Ike is moving at 17 mph that's why I think the synoptics of a west track will be more like WNW.Ike is catching up to Hanna sort of speak.

[Comanche]

Comanche Ike is moving at 17 mph that's why I think the synoptics of a west track will be more like WNW.Ike is catching up to Hanna sort of speak.

I could be wrong, but I am looking at the experts tracks (NHC). Look how fast Hanna moves out-

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

and by the time Ike gets to where she is now, she will be near New England, which is a very large spread.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I'm not going to be popular with those wanting a Texas hit. They had a STX 'cane and a SE TX TS, that is a busy season, but, anyway.

I'm feeling even better about my bold prediction. Why? JB, since April, has picked busy periods he feels related to the MJO. Now, I know some pro-mets don't think the MJO works East of the Gulf and Caribbean, but so far, the busy periods laid out by JB have been busy, and the quiet periods, quiet. Ike was probably the last shot. Josephine looks like a fish. There is one wave beyond Josephine, that will have to be watched, but the odds of any single wave making it here aren't great.

If JB is right, the Atlantic will then slow, and by the next busy period starting late September, the Westerlies will probably be getting down here. Of course, Jerry, barely a Category 1, made landfall during TX/OU weekend in 1989 (Texas started a four game winning streak that year as Peter Gardere lit up the Cash twins with excellent passing), so October isn't absolutely safe, but that was the only one in six decades.

My boss was booking rooms last Friday in West Texas for his evacuation from Gustav, and I showed him the water vapor loops and told him I didn't see how Gustav wouldn't come up far East of here, and was right. I was a little nervous with the sharp turn models like the HWRF, but everytime I looked at the water vapor, I felt better.


Now, I will say, GFDL was pretty consistent, and pretty correct, from about 4 days out, on Gustav, so I won't say the GFDL is trash yet. But with the Canadian, Euro and 6Z GFS saying a recurve, (Canadian on Gulf side of Florida), I think I'll be right.


Did I mention I am a complete amateur, anything I say is unofficial, and Storm2K in no way endorses anything I say?


I will say, good thing nobody accepted yesterday's forecast and error cone bet for Shiner, as Lake Charles to A'p'cola is probably too far West. Based on 12Z models, I may go for JB's Hurricane Gloria Carolinas to New York redux forecast.

Speaking of, did I mention suburban NYC/Long Island has had a borderline Cat2/Cat 3 semi-major hurricane more recently than the Houston-Galveston area? It's true.

Edit to correct spelling of 'picked'...

[boca]

Comanche Ike is moving at 17 mph that's why I think the synoptics of a west track will be more like WNW.Ike is catching up to Hanna sort of speak.

I could be wrong, but I am looking at the experts tracks (NHC). Look how fast Hanna moves out-

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

and by the time Ike gets to where she is now, she will be near New England, which is a very large spread.

The way the tropics been behaving is all just a guess at this point. Its gonna be a long week.

[deltadog03]

I can see IKE moving more WNW for the next day or 2 until hanna clears out...Then the sub tropical ridge builds in over and moves him due west or a touch below that...Maybe 265 or something for another day or so. Then WNW towards the end of the 5 day period. This will get blocked in. GFS is in la la land with this recurving...IMO

[KWT]

Comanche, worth noting though that the 96hrs isn't stupidly far away from where Ike will be but if the forecasts are right the in the way the high builds back pretty quickly then I suspect that while Ikwe may try and follow Hanna the track will remain generally W, maybe a little north of west.

The question that has to be answered though is just how strongly does the high build in, the GFDL builds a monster ridge whilst tyhe GFS op run doesn't really and opens a weakness back up 120hrs.

Deltadog i agree, I don't think this gets far enough south to landfall in the Caribbean like a few models have suggested though.