ATL: IKE Discussion

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yeah I don't see anythingh in the synoptics at this point to take this thing in the Carrib. FL looks less and less likely. We'll know for sure by tom morning

[KWT]

I think this probably will pull a Donna type track in the end, I stil lthink Florida is the most likely end up zone unless a weakness opens up before hand however even if it does an east coast rider is quite possible.

This is a really tricky call thanks to Hanna and the already complicated set-up in the SE states.

[gatorcane]

latest NHC cone looks a bit concerning for Southern FL....with a WNW bend at the end.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

[Sanibel]

Yeah, who would be worried about an early September storm approaching the Keys from the east?

[KWT]

The other thing to note is the track upto 48hrs is more to the north, its not far off 25N by that point. However like the GFDL is shows a WSW dive but not to the same extent, then the NHC lifts ike to the WNW right at the end.


Also shows a major hurricane at the end of the forecast, providing there aren't hitches with getting Hanna out of the way thats looking quite likely.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ike is slightly hampered by Hanna in around 48hrs but after that Hanns should slowly head out of there.

[HURAKAN]

Unless this pulls a Floyd on us, we're in big trouble.

[chris_fit]

Out of one cone and into the other....hehe

[Sanibel]

This is what I was worried about a few days ago.

Trend is right.

[HURAKAN]

Curling.

[KWT]

I can see yet more adjustment needed to the north, I really don't think its going to dive that far WSW from where it will eventually be but who knows...

Floyd may not be a bad comprasion for eventual landfall and whilst I'm stil lfavoring Florida there is a reasonable chance that this ends up being an east coast rider as well IMO...

[gtsmith]

Out of one cone and into the other....hehe

ok...that was a good one

[Ivanhater]

I know that Dr. Bill Williams at the University of South Alabama is very concerned about the possibilty of Ike entering the GOM. He stated such this morning.

He was my advisor when I went to USA...good man

[Sanibel]

Closest analogue I could find -






1935 Keys Labor Day Storm...

[Ivanhater]

I can see yet more adjustment needed to the north, I really don't think its going to dive that far WSW from where it will eventually be but who knows...

Floyd may not be a bad comprasion for eventual landfall and whilst I'm stil lfavoring Florida there is a reasonable chance that this ends up being an east coast rider as well IMO...

KWT, nearly every model show the wsw movement for a day...models are in excellent agreement with that scenario

[gatorcane]

From NHC 11AM Ike Discussion:

AND IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE FIVE DAYS PASS

[weatherbud]

Another update:

[gatorcane]

5 day cone animation:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[Just Joshing You]

This is eerily like the 1935 track thus far. What are the synoptic setups? Is that type of track remotely possible?

[Sanibel]

I think the amplitude of the progressing "S" track will increase - maybe taking the Labor Day track out of the question. Maybe not.

[ronjon]

Here might be another analog.