ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[storms in NC]

She is looking better than yesterday for sure. She is gitting that nice S look to her now.

[cpdaman]

chris fit i think what you saw were the northern bands wrapping around quickly to the west, because the feature itself is not really moving

[weatherwoman]

Tallywx, I'll take it blackened. Seriously, if she comes your way, be safe.

Thanks, but at this point climatology and model shifting has me thinking the paradigmatic Wilmington to Cape Lookout skirter. That wouldn't bring much weather to the Raleigh/Durham area. On the other hand, I've been craving a shrimp burger from El's Drive In in Morehead City...

Great place to eat
Looks as if we might get some rain any way. Thank God I hope it stay on the forcast as it is now cause it puts it over my house.
I also hope farther North Va ,NJ get the rain too.

give me your order i work in walking distance from els, my nephew is the head cook and has been for 35 years, love the place!

[NEXRAD]

Hanna is not likely to change much in intensity today.

1) There's a shear maxima west of the upper low this morning and this feature is rotating southeast around the base of the upper low. By late today, this will translate to increased westerly shear over Hanna. The current reduced shear is temporary.

2) Dry air filtering around the upper low will be transfered into Hanna's SW inflow, which will tend to wrap east around the storm's center. Given that the convection with Hanna has been displaced mostly east of the storm circulation, the net result will be to keep the convective situation more in-check later today, if not cause the low level center to become more exposed.

3) The storm lacks the common well-defined center that was present yesterday. Indeed, pressures have risen by around 10mb since this time Tuesday. Furthermore the multiple low level vortices indicate poorer surface organization. With westerly shear later today, Hanna may be inhibited from developing a defined stacked core circulation.

Therefore, while Hanna may improve in organization over the next 6 to 12 hours, the trend will likely end as combined dry air and increased shear affect the system late today or tonight. Hanna will likely remain at 50/55 knot intensity for the time being.

- Jay

[cpdaman]

nexrad c'mon we need hanna to either die or strengthen lol

interesting (i thought) note on the recon mission later today.....why 22.9 / 74.7

is thay a typo? NHC foecast 11 am discussion (and the one's before that) call for her to be well east of that point

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 03/1800,04/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0608A HANNA
C. 03/1530Z
D. 22.9N 74.7W
E. 03/1700Z TO 04/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[KWT]

Jay, I ccan see what you mean with regards to the center thing, I think I can see where the the LLC is, just north of the NHC psoition now but also I think there is at least a MLC located to the NE and its pretty clear as day theres something up there, the recon should give us a good idea of exactly what I think.

[Pebbles]

If you go to this link and look at the storm relative loop... it's set to run pretty fast. Which can help you figure out where the LLC is. For those that are newer.. try looking past the big high blobs of convection and look at the direction the lower level clouds are moving.

It's still hard to see what's going on there but still better then reg loops at this point.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/cira/RAMM ... PICAL.html

[fci]

Florida out of the cone and breathing a sigh of relief....

gatorcane - if tropical storm force winds extend out 290 miles.....do you think we will have TS force winds in palm Beach County?

"How close will it get" has Hanna 197 miles from me 48 hours from now.
TS winds do not extend that far out to the West.

I think all we will see is a little bit of wind, 20-30 perhaps along the coast and very little in the way of rainfall.

Ike is the one to watch now as it is progged to be a cane in the Western Bahamas Southeast of Miami in 5 days.

There is NO WAY school will be closed for Hanna unless her course takes a radical turn to the west.

[cpdaman]

the turks and caicos weather observation are now back up and running!

so we have some live data (winds and pressure) very close to what appears to be a developing center

we got 993 mb on turks and caicos right now with pressures dropping rapidly (again) and sustained winds near 40 from the NE

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =IPINECAY2

and by the way, she looks a lot better here

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

the ull interaction is key for this evening/tonite

[KWT]

cpdaman, thats very interesting indee and would support the development of a new center to the NE of the current one, which is still going it seems. I suspect recon will find possibly several vortexes out there with the one near the convection probably becoming dominant right now it seems.

[Weatherfreak14]

cpdaman, thats very interesting indee and would support the development of a new center to the NE of the current one, which is still going it seems. I suspect recon will find possibly several vortexes out there with the one near the convection probably becoming dominant right now it seems.

Well it seems the New center looks to be moving WNW... I guess it depends on how much convection forms on it to decide if this is going to be the True new center... If this is the New Center would that make the track a shift west?????

[gatorcane]

Hanna is on the move now, but no idea which direction...looks kindaof WNW to me though..

[cpdaman]

gator IMO we will Know if she is moving west when the direction of the wind changes from the NNE/NE at pike kay obs- make sense?

[gatorcane]

If that cutoff ULL in the Bahamas west of Hanna drops far enough SW or more S...
could it not steer Hanna more WNW instead of NW?

[storms in NC]

looks to be around 305 deg to me. there or about JMO

[Blown Away]

Look at the last frames of the visible loop and turn on the NHC track points, is that the LLC just to the W of the first NHC point or is that some kind of eddy?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[OuterBanker]

LOL (rather nervously though). Just went to the Accuweather Pro site (all right, I confess to being a JB fan) and the home page opens with a couple weather alarms posted on local forecast. Cute red alarm bells Reading something like this:

Weather Alarm: Rain Total 2.89 in Occurring Sept 5 (OK, we need the rain and I can shut off the sprinkler system for a couple days)

Weather Alarm Winds 56 sustained gust 106 (Cancel hang gliding classes)

One other note of concern though. The 11 am TPC track takes Hanna on the west side of the sounds, the worse case scenario for the Outer Banks.

[masaji79]

Gees this seems to be the pattern with Hanna. Get her act together and then fall apart again.
Who knows what we'll finally end up with. She could surprise us all again.

[storms in NC]

OuterBanker
It looks like we will get the rain we need I Hope.

[AJC3]

Florida out of the cone and breathing a sigh of relief....

gatorcane - if tropical storm force winds extend out 290 miles.....do you think we will have TS force winds in palm Beach County?

With a near 300 mile wind field, and it could still grow, it is possible for parts of the east coast to get TS watches or warnings if Hanna leans towards the west part of the cone.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... i#contents

Actually the TS force wind radii in the NW quadrant are forecast to contract as Hanna becomes stronger and better organized, which is more trypical of a tropical cyclone.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 0SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.4N 73.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...250NE 175SE 50SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 25.2N 75.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 75SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.3N 77.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 75SW 90NW.