ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

curtadams, well the models should never be used as a guidence to the strength, we saw that with Gustav, the GFS barely had a clsoed low whilst this was strengthening towards major status. Still looks very good right now with the convection well wrapped round the earlier eye feature which has now gone with the return of deep convection.

[fasterdisaster]

Remember, just because a storm is small at formation doesn't mean at all that it's small for life.

[Just Joshing You]

Remember, just because a storm is small at formation doesn't mean at all that it's small for life.

No one learned from Gustav

[ConvergenceZone]

GFS 12z comes hard with the sw motion at days 3-4..Also leaves a weakness along the east coast which would tend to turn it to the north before a US threat..

I don't see this as a recurve out to sea. It's going to be too far south for that to happen. Perhaps it may recurve into the east coast though, but even that is questionable. I still see t his as a gulf of mexico storm eventually.

[cycloneye]

Will Ike track the same as Hurricane Kate in 1985?

[masaji79]

It's interesting to see the track for Ike bending southwestwards. This year has sure produced some weird tracking storms. I.E. Fay, Hanna.

[HurricaneQueen]

Sanibel, that may not be a bad comprasion for track though I think the big difference will be it'll probably be curving WNW/NW by the it goes through the Bahamas.

Ivanhater, the models were in total agreement that Hanna would not go drifting southwards for 36hrs as well...
(though ironiclly one outlier run from the GFDL nailed it totally!)

ronjon, that would be the one'd I'd use, maybe taking that slight S shape a little sooner though?

KWT:

I enjoy your posts but don't always follow your thought process.

For example WHY to you expect a WNW/NW turn earlier than forecast? What synoptics do you see in place at that time? I guess the same question applies to your answer to ronjon. I would love to see it turn sooner rather than later but why do you think it will?

Thanks,
Lynn

[fasterdisaster]

I also have fairly high confidence in the NHC track (and that's not a good thing for me)

[KWT]

Theres forecasted to be a possible weakness left behind by Hanna HurricaneQueen, its not huge and it could well make little difference but I'm tending to think that there is enough of a weakness there to allow the system to head WNW/NW but who knows, its early days now.

[MortisFL]

The one good thing about all this is that Ike is moving fast and we wont have to wait 2-3 weeks to see what its going to do next. Whether it stall, change course, etc. It could still do that later, but the consensus is that were going to have a major hurricane in the bahamas on Monday...and not be looking at a Fay or Hanna and scratch our heads over what it will do next.

[KWT]

I'm starting to wonder about the track somewhat now, i was thinking a US landfall was almost a dead cert but the GFS is convinced the upper high will break down pretty quickly, grante dis only two runs that are showing this but the models are agreeing on a gneral evolution which makes it very tricky to call.

However equally the 0z ECM holds the high for longer then the GFS so who knows?

[Vortex]

12z GFS contines trend out to sea

[ConvergenceZone]

If only one model shows it, I'm not buying it, but if they all start showing it later today, then the GFS is obviously on to something...

[Vortex]

If Ike misses the troughiness along the east coast look out..Strong ridging builds back in and Ike has a free trip to the GOM

[KWT]

Indeed vortex though right now its just too early to know, the ECM and GFS both open up the ridge to the point where it has to lift out north as the trough swings along and erodes the high yet further.

The 12z ECM is going to be very interesting, because the run yesterday afternoon showed something between the GFS and the ECM 0z run.

[haml8]

Is this storm similar to Hugo? seemed to originate from a similar area... and is a similar size storm.

[tgenius]

Well I breathe a cautious sigh with the GFS 12Z making Ike Curve out to sea... Obviously 2/3 of a week out is an exorbitant amount of time for things to change, so its a reserved sigh.

[sphelps8681]

The latest from Jeff Master's:

Ike
Tropical Storm Ike continues getting organized over the middle Atlantic, and has the potential to become a large and dangerous Cape Verdes-type hurricane by Monday, when it is expected to be in the southeastern Bahama Islands. Visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity is starting to wrap around the core of the storm, and Ike has about 50% of an eyewall built. Upper-level outflow is good, and Ike is in a very favorable upper-level wind environment, with an upper-level anticyclone overhead, and wind shear less than 10 knots. Ike has moistened the atmosphere around it enough to wall off a large amount of dry air that surrounds it. Rather cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of 27.5°C. SSTs will quickly warm to 29°C over the next two days, but the shear is forecast to increase to 20-35 knots Thursday through Friday. The SHIPS model responds by strengthening Ike only to a Category 1 hurricane today, then weakening it to a tropical storm during the higher shear, then strengthening it again to a Category 1 hurricane by Saturday. The HWRF and GFDL models do not predict the shear will affect Ike as much Thursday and Friday, and intensify the storm into a Category 2 or higher hurricane by Sunday. The HWRF makes Ike a Category 4 hurricane in the eastern Bahama Islands on Monday, and the GFDL has Ike hitting eastern Cuba as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane on Monday. I expect Ike to be a hurricane by Thursday morning, and a Category 3 or higher hurricane by Monday.

The longer term fate of Ike is highly uncertain. The ECMWF and GFS models both forecast that Hanna will be strong enough to create a weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering Ike to the west. Ike will then follow Hanna's path, recurving northwards. the timing of this recurvature is critical, as the GFS shows that Ike will miss the U.S., while the ECMWF forecasts a strike in South Florida on Tuesday, then another landfall in North Carolina later in the week. If Hanna is not as strong or is faster-moving than these models expect, Ike may not recurve. Instead, Ike will cross Cuba or move through the Florida Straits, eventually emerging into the Gulf of Mexico to cause havoc there. This is my current expectation.

[stormy1970al]

I know that Dr. Bill Williams at the University of South Alabama is very concerned about the possibilty of Ike entering the GOM. He stated such this morning.

He was my advisor when I went to USA...good man

Being from around these parts of the woods it concerns me that Dr. Bill Williams said this. I haven't heard but with having three children it is very possible it was said and I missed it on the news. He is a very smart man!

[deltadog03]

I don't think hanna is going to be strong enough to really punch too big of a hole into the ridge....