ATL: IKE Discussion

[stormy1970al]

5 day cone animation:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/gr ... p_5W.shtml

I know this is kind of offsubject but doesn't that look like a roller coaster in the making. I hope that is not sign of what is to come.

[Sabanic]

I know that Dr. Bill Williams at the University of South Alabama is very concerned about the possibilty of Ike entering the GOM. He stated such this morning.

He was my advisor when I went to USA...good man

Being from around these parts of the woods it concerns me that Dr. Bill Williams said this. I haven't heard but with having three children it is very possible it was said and I missed it on the news. He is a very smart man!

He mentioned his concern about Ike on Sports Radio this morning around 7:20

[ConvergenceZone]

If Hanna is not as strong or is faster-moving than these models expect, Ike may not recurve. Instead, Ike will cross Cuba or move through the Florida Straits, eventually emerging into the Gulf of Mexico to cause havoc there. This is my current expectation]

This part of Jeff Masters discussion is a bit scary...

[HURAKAN]

Now:


48 hours:


We can see how the ridge develops which should allow Hanna to move NW-ward and Ike will most likely turn to the west. Also you can see the development of the ULL near Josephine that should cause some shear over the system.

[CajunMama]

Could we continue to remember to explain the charts/graphs that we post for those people that are new to tropics watching please. Let's not forget that not everyone knows what these mean.

[micktooth]

Any early thoughts on a potential Northern Gulf threat? So many people are just getting back and I really don't think they would leave if Ike gets close.(Like my in-laws!)
Sorry if this is in the wrong thread.

Any thoughts from the Board?

[gatorcane]

Ike is getting that BUZZ saw appearance and is racing WNW today

[sphelps8681]

I should have included this regarding Hanna in my previous post.

From Jeff Masters:

The track forecast for Hanna
Hanna has been moving erratically over the past day, and has moved considerably farther east than most of the models expected. This decreases the threat to the western Bahama Islands, Florida, and Georgia, since Hanna will be starting further east when it makes its expected turn to the northwest. A landfall location near the South Carolina/North Carolina border is more likely, which would occur Friday night. On Saturday, Hanna will be racing north and then northeast along the U.S. East Coast, bringing tropical storm conditions to the mid-Atlantic and New England states.

The intensity forecast for Hanna
The wind shear is forecast to remain at its current level, 15-25 knots, over the remainder of Hanna's life. There is a large amount of dry continental air lying between Hanna and South Carolina, which will continue to cause problems for the storm. However, sea surface temperatures are a warm 29°C, with a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) of 40-70, just below the value of 80 typically associated with rapid intensification. The GFDL model intensifies Hanna to a Category 1 hurricane, but the HWRF and SHIPS model keep it a tropical storm. I expect Hanna will have top winds between 60 mph and 80 mph at landfall in North or South Carolina, making it a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane.

[stormy1970al]

does he post online, link?

Unfortunately not that I'm aware of

No, it is only released to his clients, and the meteorology class gets a peek of it, I did during Katrina

Here is some links about him.

http://www.usouthal.edu/cwrc/stfbill.html
In June 1999, Dr. Williams became a severe weather analyst for WKRG-TV in Mobile and a member of the WKRG First Alert Storm Team.

http://www.usouthal.edu/gulfmarineweather/aboutus.html
http://www.southalabama.edu/cwrc/ But you have to have authorized permission to get into these....I don't have it.

http://www.southalabama.edu/gulfmarinew ... m823.shtml

[alienstorm]

Now:


48 hours:

These graphs indicate a turn to the NW once it reaches the bahamas, it looks like the GFS is on to something. I would say that chances are better that this turn up to the east coast than a Florida storm. I just don't see the High pressure holding on for so long given that we are in September. I would say there is a better than even chance that this will not be a Florida storm. I give it 75% that it won't.

[Vortex]

CDO is beginning to form as of the 1615 utc. The eye should become visible later on today.

[SWFLA_CANE]

If GFDL is based off of GFS how is it that GFS in the model that takes Ike north out to sea and GFDL takes it south below every other model?

[HURAKAN]

alienstorm, those graphics are up to 48 hrs, which is when Ike should be moving westward and likely turning SW-ward. It doesn't show anything else.

[HURAKAN]

Pick-a-boo!! Ike may be trying to open his eye.

[Bocadude85]

Now:


48 hours:

These graphs indicate a turn to the NW once it reaches the bahamas, it looks like the GFS is on to something. I would say that chances are better that this turn up to the east coast than a Florida storm. I just don't see the High pressure holding on for so long given that we are in September. I would say there is a better than even chance that this will not be a Florida storm. I give it 75% that it won't.

That is the highs location in 48hrs not in 5 days

[gatorcane]

What's the low in the SE GOM in that pic above?

[KWT]

Looking good now, Ike looks like a strengthening cat-1 hurricane right now and I fully expect the NHC to reflect this come next advisory.

Hurakan, nice big blow up of convection in the western quadrant recently, wouldn't be too surprised if a proper eye does show itself in about 12-24hrs time

[Bocadude85]

What's the low in the SE GOM in that pic above?

Thats the ULL in the Bahamas right now

[Brent]

Pick-a-boo!! Ike may be trying to open his eye.

This is going to be a monster.

[HurricaneQueen]

Any early thoughts on a potential Northern Gulf threat? So many people are just getting back and I really don't think they would leave if Ike gets close.(Like my in-laws!)
Sorry if this is in the wrong thread.

Any thoughts from the Board?

Micktooth:

This is the obvious board for that question but I don't think anyone really knows yet IF Ike will make it into the Gulf of Mexico. The models certainly don't appear to be in agreement at this time.

I do agree with you that our friends on the central Gulf Coast are less likely to heed any warnings having just returned home after what may be perceived as an unnecessary evacuation.

Lynn