ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[deltadog03]

GFS might be having feedback prollems at that point too. Hanna would prolly go/be ET at that point.

[N2Storms]

[quote="Ivanhater"][quote="Stormcenter"][quote="Ivanhater"][quote="canetracker"][url]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_ten_l_loop.shtml[/url]
GFS loop thru 54 hr

[url]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_85v_lu_loop.shtml[/url]
GFS 850 mb loop for clarity up to 54 hrs so far.[/quote]

This whole talk about Ike following Hannah's weakness is wrong...GFS build the ridge right back under Hannah[/quote]


Come on now it's happened many times before in history. How can you say it's wrong?[/quote]

Im not talkign about history Im talking about now..check out the 500mb GFS after Hannah moves out...GFS builds it back right away..now later in the forecast the high could retreat back east, allowing Ike to recurve, but not because of Hannah[/quote]


Hey Ivan...did you notice the (2) closed lows on that GFS run...one of them comes right along the coast from our west and there is another one that looks to forming just off the S. Texas coast...I'm thinking that this year the greatest threat for the Panhandle may come from an Opal typre "home grown" system later on in Sept through Oct...

[KWT]

I think the GFS reflects that though Deltadog if you look at the Voricity charts you can see some sort of tail of energy that would be a classic sign of an extra tropical system.

[SWFLA_CANE]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

12 Z CMC has almost a Donna like track.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian is as far South as Cuba, and still bending North at the end as a trough passes. I will note, Canadian's trough is progressive, and might leave Ike behind...



Of course, if Ike isn't that far South, trough probably won't miss it...

[KWT]

12z HWRF is very close to the 12z GFS...doesn't a huge deal though simply because HWRF runs directly off the GFS data therefore both would do similar things. Gets this down to 939mbs in the Bahamas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2008090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

12 Z CMC has almost a Donna like track.

JB's Big Dog said between Donna and Gloria...

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET has the weakness GFS has and tracks Ike off the East coast of the U.S.

TROPICAL STORM IKE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N 50.5W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092008



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 03.09.2008 21.1N 50.5W MODERATE

00UTC 04.09.2008 21.6N 53.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2008 22.6N 56.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 05.09.2008 24.9N 58.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2008 25.0N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.09.2008 25.4N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.09.2008 25.4N 65.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2008 25.3N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2008 24.8N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2008 25.0N 70.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2008 26.4N 72.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 09.09.2008 26.4N 73.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2008 28.2N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

[wxman57]

Hmm, something's fishy around here, maybe?

[HURAKAN]

Hmm, something's fishy around here, maybe?

wxman57, what is your take on Ike's future track?

[cycloneye]

12z GFDL is not on the weakness bandwagon:

745
WHXX04 KWBC 031729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.5 50.5 285./15.9
6 21.2 52.0 296./16.3
12 21.8 53.8 288./17.2
18 22.5 55.2 295./15.1
24 23.2 56.7 298./16.1
30 23.8 57.8 297./11.4
36 24.2 58.8 294./10.0
42 24.3 59.9 273./ 9.8
48 24.1 61.1 260./11.0
54 23.5 62.4 248./13.5
60 22.9 63.5 238./11.9
66 22.0 64.9 237./15.7
72 21.2 66.2 239./14.2
78 20.4 67.5 239./14.6
84 19.8 68.4 237./10.6
90 19.5 69.4 249./ 9.3
96 19.6 70.3 278./ 9.0
102 19.8 71.4 281./10.1
108 20.0 72.2 283./ 8.6
114 20.3 73.1 292./ 8.7
120 21.0 74.2 300./12.3
126 21.5 75.3 298./11.5

[dwg71]

GFDL is still further north than previous run. bending back WNW at a steeper slope towards the end. It sould extrap to Florida, I believe. I haven't seen graphical.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Uk Met, which I don't trust anyway, still has a Westward component at the end of that run.


I am about 90 minutes away, I think, from abandoning my foolish Lake Charles to A'p'cola scenario, and accepting JB's forecast as a track between Donna and Gloria blindly and without question.

[wxman57]

Hmm, something's fishy around here, maybe?

wxman57, what is your take on Ike's future track?

My 7 day track has it about 150 miles east of the SC coast aiming for Cape Hatteras.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hmm, something's fishy around here, maybe?

wxman57, what is your take on Ike's future track?

My 7 day track has it about 150 miles east of the SC coast aiming for Cape Hatteras.

Like JB!


Edit to add:

Sorry. I grew up in suburban Long Island, and they are almost as overdue (23 years vs 25 years) for a 'Big One' as Houston. Of course, JB's 'It Could Happen Tomorrow' is a storm passing just West of PHL and pushing Delaware Bay onto Philadelphia...

[KWT]

Yep the GFDL is bending back to the WNW...

Wxman57, I'm sort of stuck in two minds here, if the ECM agrees with the GFS type solution then it'll make it far easier to agree with your idea but the GFS has a bad habit I've noticed over many years of watching the way its handles upper troughs of being a good 24hrs too fast in bringing them in outside 96hrs...much to my annoyence in the winter time!

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, then in your opinion Ike will follow Hanna.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFDL is not on the weakness bandwagon:

745
WHXX04 KWBC 031729
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 20.5 50.5 285./15.9
6 21.2 52.0 296./16.3
12 21.8 53.8 288./17.2
18 22.5 55.2 295./15.1
24 23.2 56.7 298./16.1
30 23.8 57.8 297./11.4
36 24.2 58.8 294./10.0
42 24.3 59.9 273./ 9.8
48 24.1 61.1 260./11.0
54 23.5 62.4 248./13.5
60 22.9 63.5 238./11.9
66 22.0 64.9 237./15.7
72 21.2 66.2 239./14.2
78 20.4 67.5 239./14.6
84 19.8 68.4 237./10.6
90 19.5 69.4 249./ 9.3
96 19.6 70.3 278./ 9.0
102 19.8 71.4 281./10.1
108 20.0 72.2 283./ 8.6
114 20.3 73.1 292./ 8.7
120 21.0 74.2 300./12.3
126 21.5 75.3 298./11.5

12Z looks liek a friggin roller coaster...and of course it has to tag Hati on its way like every other storm this year..

[wxman57]

wxman57, then in your opinion Ike will follow Hanna.

Farther east, possibly. I wouldn't rule out a track missing the east coast.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF tracks west but at the end it bends more Westnorthwest as a cat 4 cane.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation