ATL: IKE Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

For what it's worth, the HPC's day 6 and 7 maps show Ike turning at roughly the longitude of Florida. In other words, a landfall in the state. Of course, the global models are split, with some showing a turn earlier (GFS, UKMET), others a bit east of FL (HWRF and NOGAPS), and still others close enough that FL might get clipped (CMC, EURO, GFDL). We're still at least 6 days out, so it'll probably be another 48 hours before we can get a better handle on a potential landfall, in my opinion.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav_color.html

[gtsmith]

For what it's worth, the HPC's day 6 and 7 maps show Ike turning at roughly the longitude of Florida. In other words, a landfall in the state. Of course, the global models are split, with some showing a turn earlier (GFS, UKMET), others a bit east of FL (HWRF and NOGAPS), and still others close enough that FL might get clipped (CMC, EURO, GFDL). We're still at least 6 days out, so it'll probably be another 48 hours before we can get a better handle on a potential landfall, in my opinion.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day6nav_color.html

out of my ban for a question: in that HPC forecast, the system turns to a big L on day 6 with lower pressures than the previous days, which had a little TS or H symbol...what is the dif?

[deltadog03]

Well, I must say, I need to retract my statement from early this morning. I think the possibility of recurving is going up. Don't know/think it misses the US, but looks like might help a big pattern change which leads to a significant trof setting up in the east. Thats all reamaining to be seen, but looks like GFS/ Euro are starting the trend of possible recurves and I buy it.

[Bocadude85]

its early september not late september i see no reason the ridge will not hold a lot of big storms have hit fla in september such as the 1926 cat 4 into miami the 1928 cat 4 into palm beach 1929 key largo cane 1933 cane into palm beach the 1935 labor day cane 1945 homestead cane that curved up the state the 1947 cat 4 into ft lauderdale hurricane donna in 1960 and frances and jeanne in 2004 i am not saying that ike will hit florida but trying to show that the ridge can stay strong in september

[Weatherboy1]

More from the HPC's discussion on Ike's future path:

...HURCN IKE...

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE: HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE N OF THE STORM COME DAYS 6-7? WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM INTERACTING WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES? THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PLOTS SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD OVER FL...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS FOR DAYS 6-7.
TPC AND HPC GRAPHICS TAKE THE HURCN UP THE E COAST OF FL...IN A VERY CRITICAL AREA WHERE JUST A FEW DECIMETERS DIFFERENCE IN 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE SE WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ANOTHER LANDFILLING TROPICAL SYS AND A SHARPER RE-CURVATURE OUT TO SEA.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, I must say, I need to retract my statement from early this morning. I think the possibility of recurving is going up. Don't know/think it misses the US, but looks like might help a big pattern change which leads to a significant trof setting up in the east. Thats all reamaining to be seen, but looks like GFS/ Euro are starting the trend of possible recurves and I buy it.

well that's cool....I'm glad to hear that actually....We've had enough to worry about with Gustav and soon to be Hurricane Hanna (which will probably do horrible damage and destruction somewhere on the east coast)......So the fact that it will now more than likely recurve out to sea is fantastic news. Hopefully it will miss bermuda as well....

[Weatherboy1]

gtsmith -- I've noticed that the HPC maps generally replace hurricane and tropical storm symbols with "Ls" once they get outside of the NHC's 5-day forecast window. I don't know if that's protocol or what. But I wouldn't make a judgment about potential strength based on the symbol they use. I think you have to use the models for that, and there doesn't appear to be too much right now to prevent Ike from strengthening at least to a hurricane and possibly a major.

But like I said, we're not going to have a much better idea of curve/recurve/exactly where does the turn occur for another 36-48 hours. Six or seven days out the models can swing quite a bit.

[JPmia]

*it appears* that this has a recurve written all over it...thankfully

[ConvergenceZone]

*it appears* that this has a recurve written all over it...thankfully

exactly. I was worried for awhile there...but now I had some chance to look at some maps and charts over lunch, and now I finally see what all the models are seeing and the METS on here see it too...We will need a break and it's going to be nice to finally get one...

[Ed Mahmoud]

A turn North just before Florida doesn't guarantee a recurve.

Euro either hits or just misses MLB area, BTW...

[fasterdisaster]

Saying a recurve is 'likely' is absolutely ludicrous. Half the models and the NHC still do not call for this.

[HURAKAN]

Just like Ike!

[KWT]

Way to soon to be calling recurve, it was only 36hrs ago some models were showing this heading into the gulf...

What I will say is this still looks highly likely to be a BIG threat to the Bahamas, easily the biggest since Frances probably. After that its anyones guess, there does appear likely to be a weakness that will lift Ike up but exactly when will determine just how much of a threat it is...

[SWFLA_CANE]

*it appears* that this has a recurve written all over it...thankfully

exactly. I was worried for awhile there...but now I had some chance to look at some maps and charts over lunch, and now I finally see what all the models are seeing and the METS on here see it too...We will need a break and it's going to be nice to finally get one...

See Derek Ortt's post in the model discussion.

[fasterdisaster]

Adding to my previous statement, the latest models have NOT A SINGLE one that curves this more than NW over the Bahamas which in such a track would likely impact the US east coast. Ike is very unlikely IMO to be a fish.

[gtalum]

Adding to my previous statement, the latest models have NOT A SINGLE one that curves this more than NW over the Bahamas which in such a track would likely impact the US east coast. Ike is very unlikely IMO to be a fish.

Of course they seem to be trending northward and westward, and if the trend continues it could very well turn fish. Too early to say.

[fasterdisaster]

Unofficial 80 kt estimate from satellite.

[sfwx]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
347 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 06 2008 - 12Z WED SEP 10 2008



...HURCN IKE...

THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE: HOW MUCH UPPER RIDGE WILL LIE N OF THE
STORM COME DAYS 6-7? WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM INTERACTING
WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES? THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE PLOTS SHOW A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SPREAD OVER FL...CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS FOR DAYS 6-7.
TPC AND HPC GRAPHICS TAKE THE HURCN UP THE E COAST OF FL...IN A
VERY CRITICAL AREA WHERE JUST A FEW DECIMETERS DIFFERENCE IN 500MB
HEIGHTS OVER THE SE WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ANOTHER
LANDFILLING TROPICAL SYS AND A SHARPER RE-CURVATURE OUT TO SEA.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING THE FATE OF HURCN IKE.

[masaji79]

Ike sure looks to be a hurricane now! I wonder why NHC has not upgraded yet?

[KWT]

I think this will not be a fish no matter what, its going to likely give some very severe conditions to the Bahamas, exactly what part depends on exactly where Ike decides to go...

Also Ike looking real hot now, I'd guess 75kts, NHC seem to be a little behind the curve with this one so far I reckon.