ATL: IKE Discussion

[KWT]

Air Force Met, yep pretty close to the ECM...

This is going to be quite a tricky set-up, as someone mentioned someone else even a slight change in heights will shift the track a fair amount, very hard to call I do feel sorry for you mets out there, this seasons been a right royal pain!

[SouthFLTropics]

CrazyC83, true but the other agency was only at 3.8 at the time, hence why I suppose they went for something in the middle of the two, 70kts...

AFM, I agree there is nothing ludicrous about it, based on the data we have right now its the more likely option that after 120hrs we see some sort of recurve, how sharp remains to be seen, I think the GFS is being a little to agressive with how soon it takes it out, I'm thinking the ECM is about right at the moment but who knows?!

I agree. I think the GFS is a little early and sharp with the push into the break. I think the break is likely to set up more over FL or right off the coast.

if I had to guess right now...I would say a track within 100 miles of Floyd's track...only a little slower around the Bahamas.

AFM...For all of the East Coast of Florida and our neighbor states North of us I hope you are wrong...

Edit to add: 75 miles further west and Floyd would have been all over me!

SFT

[fasterdisaster]

Also, just to be very literal here, Ike will most likely recurve at some point as most hurricanes do. If it hits Florida first or even gets into the Gulf of Mexico and then hits Pensacola, it still is recurving, just further west. Missing the coast doesn't define "recurving" - that's more specifically a recurving fish

Touche.

I agree with you AFM (see I don't think you're crazy ) that the setup seems close to Floyd's right now.

[bahamaswx]

Always good to have the 5-day forecast point directly over your island.

[HURAKAN]

Big eye clearing in one hour!

[Vortex]

Personal impact areas as of 5pm IMO based solely on 12Z Guidance

Bahamas 90%
Bermuda 30%
Nort Carolina 35%
Forida 15%

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[KWT]

bahamaswx, I think you better keep a very close tab on Ike, looks like Ike will probably come very close by and most of the Bahamas I personally think will need a hurricane warning at some point in the not too distant future even if the models do come into agreement of a recurve becuase the break in the ridge will porbably occur either at or to the west of the Bahamas.

[fasterdisaster]

Why does the NHC weaken Ike 24 to 48 hours?

[Sabanic]

Big eye clearing in one hour!

Ike is definitely getting his act together

[Sanibel]

If Fujiwhara interaction occurs between the two Ike will go more N and Hanna will go more W.

[hial2]

Why does the NHC weaken Ike 24 to 48 hours?

They expect some shear...

[KWT]

Woah ok Ike is looking alot more impressive now then it did beforethe eye has really become much better defined and with this I think the estimate of 80kts probably is more reasonable, looks Ike is ramping up pretty fast now...

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met, yep pretty close to the ECM...

This is going to be quite a tricky set-up, as someone mentioned someone else even a slight change in heights will shift the track a fair amount, very hard to call I do feel sorry for you mets out there, this seasons been a right royal pain!

Tell me about it. I had 9 straight days of work...the last 6 were 18-21 hours each. Supposed to have today off...then I got called to put out products on Ike.

9 straight isn't a record for me (40 during Katrina/Rita)...but I had a nice 4 day weekend planned with Labor day.

[meteorologyman]

Air Force Met, yep pretty close to the ECM...

This is going to be quite a tricky set-up, as someone mentioned someone else even a slight change in heights will shift the track a fair amount, very hard to call I do feel sorry for you mets out there, this seasons been a right royal pain!

I have to agree wit you on that one, everyone in Gulf and EC needs to keep a cvareful eye on this little sucker as Major Hurricane is forecasted

[Just Joshing You]

THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS AN INTERMEDIATE INTENSITY
PEAK AT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE SHEAR...FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHT WEAKENING UNTIL THE SHEAR ABATES AFTER IKE GETS FARTHER
WEST.

[fasterdisaster]

If Fujiwhara interaction occurs between the two Ike will go more N and Hanna will go more W.

I think Hanna's moving fast enough to avoid that now, but you're right it's something you can't COMPLETELY rule out.

[KWT]

Why does the NHC weaken Ike 24 to 48 hours?

They expect some shear...

I wonder why they are expecting shear now, they are probably following the SHIPS guidence but I'm not sure how much faith I'd put in that to be honest.

Where would the shear come from?

[caneman]

Why does the NHC weaken Ike 24 to 48 hours?

They expect some shear...

I wonder why they are expecting shear now, they are probably following the SHIPS guidence but I'm not sure how much faith I'd put in that to be honest.

Where would the shear come from?[/quote

My guess would be from Hanna's outflow.

[RL3AO]

Where would the shear come from?

THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING WITHIN A COCOON OF NEARLY ZERO VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...IN BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLIES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN TROUGH ARE
STARTING TO JUST SLIGHTLY RESTRICT IKE'S OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just a thought...