ATL: IKE Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Ike making history.

[KWT]

Ok thanks RL3AO, I can see what they mean by the way the outflow is getting restricted on the eastern side tohugh the outflow is still very good on the western side. We shall have to wait and see the models are never really that good when it comes to forecasting shear but within 36hrs I'd like to think they will make a good call...I think though that 24hrs its going to be a good deal stronger then 85kts...

[KWT]

Ed, I'm not so keeen on the Gloria comprasion, it bends NW far too soon compared to what will happen with Ike, Floyd, the 1893 storm and Donna all look like being more reasonable forecasts...though the track once Ike does recurve may be close IMO.

[ConvergenceZone]

that graphic shows that it's actually extremely rare for a cane NOT to recurve out to sea when it's in this position.

[bahamaswx]

bahamaswx, I think you better keep a very close tab on Ike, looks like Ike will probably come very close by and most of the Bahamas I personally think will need a hurricane warning at some point in the not too distant future even if the models do come into agreement of a recurve becuase the break in the ridge will porbably occur either at or to the west of the Bahamas.

Thanks for your concern! The entire island has been boarded up since Monday with Hanna expected to pass through. Doesn't even look like we'll get much rain from her now... just a breezy couple of days.

[Cyclenall]

I believe this now may be as high as 85 knots. I have no idea why the NHC kept it a TS for so long just because of one Objective number was lower!? That's absurd. I would lean more on observing what its doing on satellite instead of relying on a machine. Now with the reds appearing on AVN and a building eyewall, 90-95 knots in the next 12 hours is possible IMO.

[CrazyC83]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 SEP 2008 Time : 204500 UTC
Lat : 21:31:04 N Lon : 52:34:46 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 989.2mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.9 4.3 6.2

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.8mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : -6.7C Cloud Region Temp : -67.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************

[fasterdisaster]

that graphic shows that it's actually extremely rare for a cane NOT to recurve out to sea when it's in this position.

It would have to basically turn NNW right now you realize?

[CrazyC83]

Ike making history.

That one lone analog in 1893 was a devastating storm - the Sea Islands Hurricane killed about 2,000 in Georgia and South Carolina despite being only a Category 2 at landfall.

[CrazyC83]

that graphic shows that it's actually extremely rare for a cane NOT to recurve out to sea when it's in this position.

It would have to basically turn NNW right now you realize?

Not quite. The 1872 storm and Carrie (1957) were still both moving WNW at that point although they were within 24 hours of recurving.

[KWT]

CrazyC83, those numbers do seem to be steadily increasing, was at 3.8 about 3hrs now upto 3.9 and I think we see increasingly impressive rises in the Dvorak estimate over the next 12-24hrs given how well cleared out the eye has become on IR.

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83, those numbers do seem to be steadily increasing, was at 3.8 about 3hrs now upto 3.9 and I think we see increasingly impressive rises in the Dvorak estimate over the next 12-24hrs given how well cleared out the eye has become on IR.

The 6.2 Raw T# suggests rapid deepening is possible. This has some resemblence to Hurricane Carrie (1957) at this point.

[HURAKAN]

IKE: "Intense Killing Engine" or "Intense Kinetic Energy"

Lets hope it doesn't verify. Can anyone provide another meaning to the "K"!!

[Brent]

RIC in progress! No way is that only 80 mph...

[captain east]

RIC in progress! No way is that only 80 mph...

Are you sure, Any pro mets confirm this?
Man I wish recon could go out that far...

[cycloneye]

[KWT]

Yep Crazy that raw number is very impressive, the northern eyewall doesn't look all that impressive IMO again but there is nothing that siuggests this is not a 80kts hurricane IMO right now, that eye is pretty clear...

[DESTRUCTION5]

JB's IKE Forecast


The Ike ideas looked as follows Wednesday morning: 20.5 N, 50 W, 985 mb 75 mph Thursday: 21.5 N, 56 W, 970 mb, 90 mph Friday: 23 N, 62 W, 960 mb, 110 mph Saturday: 24.5 N, 68 W, 960 mb, 110 mph Sunday: 25.5 N, 74 W, 970 mb, 100 mph Monday: 26 N, 77 W, 960 mb, 110 mph Tuesday: 28 N, 77.5 W, 960 mb, 110 mph

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

[superfly]

RIC in progress! No way is that only 80 mph...

Are you sure, Any pro mets confirm this?
Man I wish recon could go out that far...

That's something you can only confirm retrospectively. You can't "confirm" if RI will happen even though people around here like to throw that term around a lot.