ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[angelwing]

Sorry. I grew up in suburban Long Island, and they are almost as overdue (23 years vs 25 years) for a 'Big One' as Houston. Of course, JB's 'It Could Happen Tomorrow' is a storm passing just West of PHL and pushing Delaware Bay onto Philadelphia...

Cape May county is also extremely vulnerable. We just don't know how much because, well, we haven't been hit.

Floyd, Gloria and Agnes I've been thru here, we're overdue and the Delaware is a half-mile away from me.

[N2Storms]

[quote="BOPPA"]From all this talk - so far - I'm glad that I am on the
SWFL coast. OR - am I ??[/quote]



I think it's just way too early to say anything with any level of confidence...D Ortt mentioned that he thinks the HP will build in strong enough to keep Ike on a wnw path but almost everyone else seems to think Ike is going to make a right hand turn and head up the EC or out to sea...IMHO I think Ike makes it into the GOM but how far, who knows. He may skirt the northern coast of Cuba and take a Fay like track into SW FL, across the Peninsula and head out to the Atlantic...if there is one thing I've learned after lurking on this board for several years it's that the amateur posters have a tendency to be all over the place and seldom get it right while the NHC and the Pros ie; DOrtt, Air Force Met etc. are usually pretty darn accurate

[HURRICANELONNY]

The good news about IKE is the long range cone center is right over my area. Never has a long range, that far out come true. So I know I'm in the clear. My guess is the Carolina's next week.

[jlauderdal]

discount anything that cristaldi guy says when he does discos..painfully inaccurate

jlauderdal ---> <--- AJC3

HAHAHAHAHA

that was a good smiley, the fact of the matter is i have been reading the mlb discussions for years, without being to harsh, our local office tends to shall i say keep their discussions rather short.

[deltadog03]

Like, I have echoed before...VERY good disco. come from that MLB office.

[fasterdisaster]

The good news about IKE is the long range cone center is right over my area. Never has a long range, that far out come true. So I know I'm in the clear. My guess is the Carolina's next week.

TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 12

INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 75.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 78.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.4N 79.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 20.1N 81.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W 95 KT


You are not in the clear.

[dwg71]

The good news about IKE is the long range cone center is right over my area. Never has a long range, that far out come true. So I know I'm in the clear. My guess is the Carolina's next week.

Gustav was targeted to SELA by the NHC from 5+ days out... They are getting better and better.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I agree they are getting better. Especially when storms follow a clear and direct path. Hanna of course didn't and IKE will not follow a direct path. The cone will start moving North as Hanna leaves. Because there will be a weakness from Hanna that IKE will follow by next week. At least that is my thinking.

[wxman57]

Still think this storm is going to make the Gulf. The model runs are definitely as expected shifting.

Yeah, they're shifting - east, not west.

[Ed Mahmoud]

[KWT]

Should also be noted if there are to be more shifts its very likely to be east, often the models, esp the ECM for what its worth set-up things a little to ofar west and end up having to adjust eastwards but thats a flaw for most models from what I've noted.

Ed, I think what you said earlier is a good cone of uncertainty upto about 30N...from Donna to Gloria.

[fasterdisaster]

To be fair wxman57 earlier in the day many models looked to be heading for Bermuda but those have shifted west since they look more like a track a little south of Floyd's now.

[Air Force Met]

Still think this storm is going to make the Gulf. The model runs are definitely as expected shifting.

Only if it comes across FL and moves into the extreme NE GoM...like east of Destin. Otherwise...I don't see it...at least not now. Things can change...but with the current models trends...I don't see it.

[AtlanticWind]

How could the GFS lose an 80 mph storm in 24 hours?

[bahamaswx]

120hr point is right over us! Everyone here already boarded up days ago expecting Hanna to pass through... I guess we'll just leave them up expecting Ike now!

[KWT]

Because its not got the resolution to pick out these sorts of small cyclones, the GFS seems to only pick them up when they are big tubby things usually which makes sense!

[Sanibel]

TWC track shows big right turn in front of Florida and staying offshore.

[Weatherfreak000]

You guys are seeing how this storm is trending by a fair clip faster than all of the forecast points for the past two days, right?


Whatever weakness the models are seeing I think this storm is gonna miss. Of course...I suppose that means the storm could definitely find a weakness if Hanna doesn't move out the way fast enough.


But that's what I am thinking right now... perhaps if Ike still cruises along at its fast pace...the models will reflect this.

[Air Force Met]

TWC track shows big right turn in front of Florida and staying offshore.

TWC track is the exact same track issued by the NHC. Just different formatting.

[hial2]

TWC track shows big right turn in front of Florida and staying offshore.

I haven't looked at TWC since Mr Hope passed away..I listen to NHC and the pros here,they're usually ahead of the game and not just 30 seconds 5 minutes before the hour..