ATL HANNA: Models Discussion

[wxman57]

Here's a map of some of the better models, including all the consensus models. Trend definitely east toward the NC coast with few effects on the FL peninsula:

[Steve H.]

While I don't think Hanna will make a far enough westward movement to landfall in Florida (at least brush), I am still watching her like a hawk since this whole setup is murky, and even the NHC is unsure with the overall synoptics. When this ULL moves off to the southwest will it leave a void or draw Hanna a bit further west? Dunno. This is kinda what i think the HWRF is implying, but then it moves further north prior to FL landfall and up to the Carolinas. I really need the 12z HWRF to see if this was errant. Yes Ike is now coming into my head, but Hanna may have a few tricks up her sleeve, and intensity might be one of them. I think tomorrow we will see a much broader symetric center with a wide swath of winds. SHe'll be a big girl again. Still nervous in Melbourne. Cheers!!

[deltadog03]

might miss the us....

[GTStorm]

Here's a map of some of the better models, including all the consensus models. Trend definitely east toward the NC coast with few effects on the FL peninsula:

Wow, that's a pretty tight grouping. If they've all been initialized correctly and consistently then looks like I'd be battening down the hatches in NC, but still being vigilant elsewhere.

[jhpigott]

FWIW -

Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie County gets a nice brush on the 12z ECMWF before heading north

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[NCWeatherChic]

I just spoke with my family that live at the coast of NC and they all say that Hanna "isn't anything to be worried about". The local met there said that the models keep trending to the east and will likely continue and it may brush the NC coast and back out to sea. I say better to be safe than sorry but they are not making any preparations after hearing that from the met.

Why are the models having difficulty with Hanna? It seems some storms the models and cut and dry and dead on while other storms they move every run like wiper blades. I guess I am trying to figure out if we should be concerned inland. Our met said the I95 corridor in NC should see sustained winds 40-80mph, so I am really confused on who and what to believe. I dont want to be a sitting duck when our power goes out with just thunderstorms. Geesshh, we were out of power for 3 weeks after Fran and 1 week after Floyd and I have 3 more kids since those storms I have to care for.

[capepoint]

5:00 forcast track shows cat 1 landfall Fri night/Sat morning near Topsail Island between Morehead City and Cape Fear. Local met on tv says similar track to Hazel and Bertha and Fran, but a little more east than those. Also stated concerned that strenth estimates may be a little low as gulf stream temps are over 83. Said possibility could skirt offshore like Ophelia, but to prepare for landfall until NHC says otherwise.

[Sirius LeWindy]

might miss the us....

Ah come on why ruin it for us in NC just because it is not a GA storm anymore.

[z-bail]

Trending more westerly at least in it's path along Florida. At the 2pm it turned away from Florida way down by the islands but now is not making the turn northward until up around Jacksonville. This means more rain and wind for Central and Northern Florida.

[storms in NC]

might miss the us....

Ah come on why ruin it for us in NC just because it is not a GA storm anymore.

If it is not a Fl Storm or a GOM forget it no one cares What happen up here .Hello Floyd was a cat 1 and I lost my home to him. It is not all about the wind.

[stayawaynow]

might miss the us....

Ah come on why ruin it for us in NC just because it is not a GA storm anymore.

If it is not a Fl Storm or a GOM forget it no one cares What happen up here .Hello Floyd was a cat 1 and I lost my home to him. It is not all about the wind.

There are plenty of people in Florida that care what happens with Hanna.
We have also lived through storms and we feel for anyone impacted by this.

[PhillyWX]

might miss the us....

It might but it's very possible it hugs the coast just offshore and throws heavy rain back towards I-95.

[caneman]

might miss the us....

Ah come on why ruin it for us in NC just because it is not a GA storm anymore.

If it is not a Fl Storm or a GOM forget it no one cares What happen up here .Hello Floyd was a cat 1 and I lost my home to him. It is not all about the wind.

Ummmm, not to be rude but lets see.
1. Had to deal with Fay for days on end.
2. Florida sat on pins and needles with Gustav
3. Florida waited and waited and waited for Hannah to strengthen and/or move our way and it didn't
4. Ike is forecast to come our way
5. People like myself can't be on here all the time but only when storms threaten there area. (FAMily and work obligations)
6 Ike is now threatening.
7. Burnout comes to mind

So, please take a chill pill and with any luck Hannah will be minimal or turn away.

[sponger]

I am getting tired of hearing the "florida doesnt care about non florida storms" This has been going on for a few years now. We were all here (storm2K that is) when Katrinia ht NO. We were here for every major landfall as a group. Of course we are not going to tee up for a weak disorganized TS heading somewhere else. Of course it could and likely will become a hurricane but to expect intense interest in hannah is unrealistic. The solid mets of this board (Jay, AFM, Nexrad Ort, and the six I forgot to mention are always here giving there professional insight. Ike is coming and we will all be watching wherever it goes.

[cpdaman]

where can i find a link to the "new" hanna runs

seems she is heading still between 305-310 degrees

[txwatcher91]

I am getting tired of hearing the "florida doesnt care about non florida storms" This has been going on for a few years now. We were all here (storm2K that is) when Katrinia ht NO. We were here for every major landfall as a group. Of course we are not going to tee up for a weak disorganized TS heading somewhere else. Of course it could and likely will become a hurricane but to expect intense interest in hannah is unrealistic. The solid mets of this board (Jay, AFM, Nexrad Ort, and the six I forgot to mention are always here giving there professional insight. Ike is coming and we will all be watching wherever it goes.

Yes, but hanna is the more imminent threat. Ike may even go out to sea, who knows.