ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[HURAKAN]

TWC:

[bahamaswx]

That's certainly not equivalent to NHC's forecast.

[Derek Ortt]

Because its not got the resolution to pick out these sorts of small cyclones, the GFS seems to only pick them up when they are big tubby things usually which makes sense!

its not entirely a resolution issue

its an initialization issue. GFS does NOT bogus in a vortex, like NOGAPS. CMC is .6 degree resolution, and it has no problem depicting a TC. GFS is even higher resolution than CMC, so its not resolution

[Air Force Met]

That's certainly not equivalent to NHC's forecast.

That's the NHC track. Its just formatted different and the map projection is different. TWC does not issue a different forecast from NHC.

Note from TWC about the map: "It is typically updated with each official advisory on the system from the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). "

[Storm Contractor]

MET on MSNBC mentioned Ike a Cat 3 next Monday.

NHC graphic has 44% probability of a major at 96 hours and 35% probability of a major at 120hrs!

[Stormcenter]

The way things look now Ike is "not" going to make it into the GOM.

[SouthFLTropics]

Can someone give me the link to the 18z GFS? TYIA...

SFT

[KWT]

Faior enough Derek though its something thats a little odd to see how it seems to pick up on the cyclones when they are larger compared to small ones, unless I'm just making that up

[SouthFLTropics]

Can someone give me the link to the 18z GFS? TYIA...

SFT

[ExBailbonds]

Can someone give me the link to the 18z GFS? TYIA...

SFT

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[deltadog03]

Why does the GFS just mill this around the bahamas?? Is that going to be a graveyard this year??

[ExBailbonds]

Why does the GFS just mill this around the bahamas?? Is that going to be a graveyard this year??

Its that bahamian vodoo

[lonelymike]

Probably some bahamian babes

[HURRICANELONNY]

If Bastardi says it's coming to Florida. I know I'm safe. Not that I am a registered Accuweather. It just seems everytime he calls for Florida. It heads away. By the way . I don't know what he said in his projection.

[jlauderdal]

If Bastardi says it's coming to Florida. I know I'm safe. Not that I am a registered Accuweather. It just seems everytime he calls for Florida. It heads away. By the way . I don't know what he said in his projection.

the only problem with that philosophy is one of these times we are going to run out of luck and he will be right and we are going to get spanked big time

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL:Bends right at the very end of run.


WHXX04 KWBC 032330
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 21.2 51.9 290./15.9
6 21.7 53.5 288./15.7
12 22.2 55.0 289./14.3
18 22.8 56.2 295./12.8
24 23.4 57.5 298./13.3
30 23.7 58.8 282./12.8
36 23.8 60.0 274./10.6
42 23.8 61.4 268./12.6
48 23.4 62.7 253./13.0
54 22.9 64.0 250./12.6
60 22.2 65.4 246./14.7
66 21.7 66.7 248./13.0
72 21.2 68.2 252./14.9
78 20.5 69.5 241./14.0
84 19.6 70.4 223./12.0
90 19.2 71.1 236./ 8.0
96 18.9 72.1 258./10.2
102 18.9 72.8 265./ 6.2
108 18.9 73.5 274./ 7.0
114 19.2 73.8 312./ 4.7
120 20.1 74.3 332./ 9.5
126 20.6 75.0 308./ 8.3

[HURAKAN]

If Bastardi says it's coming to Florida. I know I'm safe. Not that I am a registered Accuweather. It just seems everytime he calls for Florida. It heads away. By the way . I don't know what he said in his projection.

the only problem with that philosophy is one of these times we are going to run out of luck and he will be right and we are going to get spanked big time

And he's not calling for Florida this time. He believes in a "Gloria-like" scenario.

[HurricaneRobert]

Ike is looking more like a buzzsaw.

[artist]

discount anything that cristaldi guy says when he does discos..painfully inaccurate

jlauderdal ---> <--- AJC3

so there is the possibility that Ike could hit the se FL coast?

[Lifesgud2]

If Bastardi says it's coming to Florida. I know I'm safe. Not that I am a registered Accuweather. It just seems everytime he calls for Florida. It heads away. By the way . I don't know what he said in his projection.

the only problem with that philosophy is one of these times we are going to run out of luck and he will be right and we are going to get spanked big time

I cant agree with you more..