ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

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KWT
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3581 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:47 pm

cpdaman wrote:interesting little vortex moving ENE to the south of the main center


Yeah I've just noticed that, its obviously just a little eddy thats circulating around the main doninant center but I suppose you could see a mini fujiwara effect with the two vortexes which could shunt Hanna on a wobbly path, has to be watched!

By the way you guys down the SE coast need to be preparing for a cat-2 hurricane, as the NHC has this making landfall as a cat-1...
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Re:

#3582 Postby Bane » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:55 pm

storms in NC wrote:The new track put Hanna to the right of me or east. Do you think they will move it back to the west any more or will it keep going east?


from the nhc:

IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS
WITH A STRAIGHT LINE GIVES A MISLEADING UNDERESTIMATE OF THE
THREAT TO THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. ONLY A GRADUAL
RIGHT TURN IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS.
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Re: Re:

#3583 Postby Bane » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:56 pm

storms in NC wrote:
cpdaman wrote:
storms in NC wrote:The new track put Hanna to the right of me or east. Do you think they will move it back to the west any more or will it keep going east?


we could sure use a pro-mets latest thoughts

although i think most are pretty concerned about IKE right now (since he will be a major)...and hanna is still 48 hours away

I am ver very done with Storm2K the most rude people there is. I will make sure others will know.


i think you misinterpreted what he said.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3584 Postby cpdaman » Wed Sep 03, 2008 4:58 pm

WXMAN 57 what are your latest thougt's with hanna right now

do you agree with latest model consensus

seems to me like hanna is about to show everyone just how large she really is
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3585 Postby cpdaman » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:14 pm

last vdm (105 minutes after previous one) shows a .2 movement EAST and nothing north or south.

wonder if the center is so broad that the vdm's are just being taken at different points within the broad center .
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Re: Re:

#3586 Postby MBismyPlayground » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:17 pm

[quote="Bane"from the nhc:

IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS
WITH A STRAIGHT LINE GIVES A MISLEADING UNDERESTIMATE OF THE
THREAT TO THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. ONLY A GRADUAL
RIGHT TURN IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS.[/quote]

Our local Met is saying the same thing... Best to be prepared as Hanna has been so iffy.
There will still be an effect on Myrtle regardless at this rate.
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#3587 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:19 pm

JB'S Hanna Track and intensity

Wednesday morning: 20.5 N, 71.8 W, 995 mb, 45 mph Thursday: 24 N, 74 W, 983 mb, 65 mph Friday: 28.5 N, 78 W, 965 mb, 110 mph Saturday: 32.5 N, 78 W, 950 mb, 120 mph Sunday: 40 N, 74 W, 985 mb, 70 mph Maritimes on Monday

Blowing JB smoke? If not NC better look out!
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3588 Postby cpdaman » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:22 pm

three things pop out at me looking at this caribean loop

especially for those who have been lookng at floaters all day (like me)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

1. the shear monster size of hanna (bordering on insane)

2. the intensity of ike

3. some buzz saw like shear on the northern extent of hanna (from 27 N and up)
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#3589 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:24 pm

Well I guess we are all busted on Hanna track from yesterday, but were in good company with the NHC. Dry air is wrapping in with SW shear (good call NEXRAD) but evening convection is firing. East of track, time to study synoptics....
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Re:

#3590 Postby cpdaman » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:28 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Well I guess we are all busted on Hanna track from yesterday, but were in good company with the NHC. Dry air is wrapping in with SW shear (good call NEXRAD) but evening convection is firing. East of track, time to study synoptics....


ahh synoptics...you mean i can't just rely on models

what are your thoughts benson, think it will miss outer banks
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3591 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:39 pm

I'd say somewhere between the GFDL and HWRF tracks. i.e. a bit further east than NHC short term and maybe a bit more west long term. Low confidence in whether this could still miss the OBX completely 50/50 maybe. I don't think we will JB's histyoric storm out of this. But a wekening Cat 2 at landfall is still a real possibility. Now the ULL to the SW is the player in intensity.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3592 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:40 pm

I'd say somewhere between the GFDL and HWRF tracks. i.e. a bit further east than NHC short term and maybe a bit more west long term. Low confidence in whether this could still miss the OBX completely 50/50 maybe. I don't think we will see JB's historic storm out of this. But a weakening Cat 2 at landfall is still a real possibility. Now the ULL to the SW is the player in intensity.
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Re:

#3593 Postby PhillyWX » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:42 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:JB'S Hanna Track and intensity

Wednesday morning: 20.5 N, 71.8 W, 995 mb, 45 mph Thursday: 24 N, 74 W, 983 mb, 65 mph Friday: 28.5 N, 78 W, 965 mb, 110 mph Saturday: 32.5 N, 78 W, 950 mb, 120 mph Sunday: 40 N, 74 W, 985 mb, 70 mph Maritimes on Monday

Blowing JB smoke? If not NC better look out!


Cat 3 to NC? Wow...even by JB standards that's a bit hypish.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3594 Postby Recurve » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:44 pm

Unitil it was mentioned in the discussion, I didn't take a look. Hanna seems enormous. An enormity if it organizes and becomes a Cat 2+. Ike seems a little buzzsaw behind it.
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#3595 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:45 pm

I think JB is probably overdoing the strength of Hanna, I highly doubt this gets upto 120mph but I think 85-95kts isn't out of the question, systems like this that are about to recurve can sometimes pull some surprises as they start to get enhanced by other factors...
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#3596 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:49 pm

Hmm the trough is un-inverting across the eastern CONUS allowing the ULL tothe SW of hanna is dropping SW into the GOM. question is which is faster? the ULL or the ridge to the west? interesting to see.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3597 Postby expat2carib » Wed Sep 03, 2008 5:59 pm

Message: Hanna beginning to move north-northwestward (As of 2.00 p.m, September 3, 2008)
Event:
As of 2.00pm September 3, 2008 a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the central Bahamas, southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. A hurricane watch is in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. The centre of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 21.4 north and longitude 72.0 west or just south of the Turks and Caicos.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/hr) with higher gusts. Hanna is a large tropical cyclone with Tropical Storm force winds extending outward up to 290miles (465km) mainly to the north of the centre.
Rains and strong winds continue to affect the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas.
Prognosis:
Hanna is moving towards north-northwest near 10mph. A turn to the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next 24 hours. However, the On this track the centre of Hanna should be moving through or just east of the central and northwestern Bahamas over the next 48 hours. Hanna is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated amounts of up to 12 inches over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands. Storm surge of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels can be expected in areas of onshore flows within the hurricane warning areas.
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS (TCI)
Impact
Tropical Storm Hanna continues to affect the islands in the Turks and Caicos with strong winds and heavy rainfall. Preliminary assessments were conducted and flooding has been reported throughout the islands especially in Five Cays, Providenciales.

All schools, government offices, business community and private sector establishments remain closed.
Response:
The National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) which serves as the
coordinating centre for all the islands of the TCI remains activated.
Yesterday, September 2, the Governor met with the NEOC of the
Emergency Policy Group to get an update of the impact and to consider
critical next steps.

The Engineering and Maintenance Services (EMS) began pumping the flood waters from the land into the sea with the aid of one (1) of their new portable salt water pumps. The canal gates are also opened at low tide to allow the ponds to drain into the sea and subsequently closed at high tide to prevent seawater from filling the ponds and Salinas.

Airports:
All airports remain closed and non operational due to the adverse weather conditions which include flooding, debris on runway and damaged fence.
Casualties:
No deaths have been reported. All missing persons have been accounted
for.
Shelters:
Shelters remain open, however it was noted that shelter population was greatest at night. Most shelterees left at first light. Of the shelters activated Providenciales had approximately 800 shelterees.
Damage:
Preliminary damage assessments were conducted and flooding has been reported throughout the islands especially in Five Cays, Providenciales. There was evidence that part of the perimeter fencing at the Providenciales Airport was destroyed by a three (3) foot storm surge.
Housing:
Miinor damage to roofs reported.
Utilities:
Electricity has been restored to most of the islands. Telephone service remains functional and the internet service continues to be a reliable form of communication except for a very brief period when there was an apparent loss in the service.

However, the water supply provided by City Water in Grand Turk is still not operational and the majority of residents are relying on their cisterns.

Roads:
Most roads have suffered damage due to storm surge and flooding. The recently constructed Causeway linking North and Middle Caicos has suffered what appears to be major damage and may even have been destroyed.
Boats:
There were reports of boats washed ashore, damaged or sunken.
NEEDS IDENTIFIED
There is a requirement for Environmental Health Department to monitor the operation of the sewage systems especially in the areas that are experiencing flooding.
A structural engineer will be required to assess the level of damage to the causeway linking North and Middle Caicos.
BAHAMAS
Impact:
Hanna continues to affect the southeastern Bahamas primarily the islands of Inagua and Mayaguana.

Response:
The National Emergency Operations Centre remains activated and continues to provide advice to the public.

All communication equipment including Satellite phones and radios were checked by the police communications centre and found to be operational

All national medical facilities were checked and found to be ready with the necessary supplies and equipment in place.

IMPACT
The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) has received the following updates on the situation from the family of islands.

Casualties:
No causalities have been reported so far.

Shelters
Shelters are either operational or ready to be activated with the necessary supplies. There are approximately 139 persons in shelters on Acklins and 20 persons on Long Cay.
Utilities
Electricity has been restored to most of the islands.
Damage:
Reports so far are minimal with minor roof damage and fallen trees.
REGIONAL RESPONSE
The CDERA Coordinating Unit remains in regular contact with the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos to provide support and advice.

The Regional Response Mechanism (RRM) remains on standby.

CDERA has been collaborating with the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology for reviewing and analyzing the progress and development of tropical systems in the Atlantic. In this regard the CDERA CU is also monitoring the development two other tropical systems, Tropical Storm Ike and Josephine.
As at 11.00a.m. September 3, 2008, the centre of Tropical Storm Ike was located near latitude 20.8 north and longitude 51.2 west.
As at 11.00a.m. September 3, 2008, the centre of Tropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 13.8 north and longitude 28.8 west.
CDERA will continue to monitor the situation and provide advisories as necessary.

Contact Details: The CDERA CU 24hr contact number is 246 425 0386
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3598 Postby tallywx » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:07 pm

18z GFS DOESN'T EVEN GIVE HANNA A LANDFALL ANYMORE. weakening followed by a brush of the Cape. Also, it recurves v Ike out to sea. where did THAT come from?
Last edited by tallywx on Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3599 Postby KWT » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:07 pm

Well now we have to use the ole IR as the sun goes down, the thing I note is the system seems to be moving around 330 still IMO with convection still developing just around the LLC and to its north.
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Re: ATL Tropical Storm HANNA - Discussion

#3600 Postby artist » Wed Sep 03, 2008 6:22 pm

greels wrote:I feel like I am reliving "Groundhog Day"!

We've been entertaining Hanna for days now! here on Providenciales

You are no longer welcome here...not that you ever were......,

These sleepless nights are really beginning to take a toll on us.....a lot of folks are emotionally exhausted from this storm.

It just seems to never end.....


I have been thinking about you greels. How has the island faired?
It is exhausting without even having to directly deal with her here ,wondering where she is going to go. I can't imagine how you must feel there.
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