ATL: IKE Discussion

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 032345
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1035
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THIRD HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N...53.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE

[RL3AO]

Microwave images of storms at cat 2 strength:

DEAN

85kt: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/ATL/04L.DEAN/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/20070816.2344.f16.x.91h.04LDEAN.85kts-976mb-140N-577W.92pc.jpg
90kt:http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/ATL/04L.DEAN/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/20070817.1220.f16.x.91h.04LDEAN.90kts-970mb-144N-617W.97pc.jpg


FELIX

85kt: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/ATL/06L.FELIX/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/20070902.1220.f16.x.91h.06LFELIX.85kts-981mb-130N-693W.62pc.jpg


DENNIS

90kt: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc05/ATL/04L.DENNIS/ssmi/85h/2degreeticks/20050707.1136.f13.x.85h.04LDENNIS.90kts-968mb-176N-750W.jpg



IKE

65kt???: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/09L.IKE/tc_ssmis/91h/2degreeticks/20080903.2054.f17.x.91h.09LIKE.65kts-987mb-212N-519W.85pc.jpg



EDIT: I guess the NHC was reading this thread.

[WmE]

Here we go.

[Smurfwicked]

I know we're far away from this but any thoughts on the likelihood of this entering the GOM? Just trying to make a comparison to where Hanna is currently located which seems rather close to where Ike's computer models end (for now) and Hanna's projected path is going into the Georgia & Carolina's.

[Frank P]

18 mph is moving right along at a pretty good clip I might add......

[Air Force Met]

NHC never went with a track south of Jamaica (edit: initially). The original track was north of Cuba. They didn't have it going south of Jamaica until adv 13.

Never the less what is important is the tendency for NHC track to originate north and end up more south with a dip estimated into the equation. In this case it has to be adjusted for the northern recurvature climatology in this area further NE of Gus's dip southwest.

Just pointing out what you had said.

However...I think you could also say there is a tendency for the NHC track to originate south and end up north. That happens more often.

[Brent]

MAJOR HURRICANE.

Guess that ends that debate. Didn't think they'd issue a special or go that high.

[Air Force Met]

MAJOR HURRICANE.

Da da...

[cycloneye]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0000Z 21.7N 53.2W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 22.6N 55.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.8N 57.9W 115 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 60.4W 115 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 23.8N 63.1W 110 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 22.5N 68.0W 110 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 115 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[nolecaster]

NHC must be seeing the same thing we've been seeing the past hour. Pictures can sometimes say 1000 words.

[Lifesgud2]

I know we're far away from this but any thoughts on the likelihood of this entering the GOM? Just trying to make a comparison to where Hanna is currently located which seems rather close to where Ike's computer models end (for now) and Hanna's projected path is going into the Georgia & Carolina's.

Not a shot.. Trough will pick him up.

[RL3AO]

MAJOR HURRICANE.

Da da...

I'm with you. I think that 100kt might be low even.

[WmE]

MAJOR HURRICANE.

Da da...

I'm with you. I think that 100kt might be low even.

Yeah I agree. 110kts not out of the question. Impressive little system. Just like Bertha, rapidly intensifying in the middle of the ocean.

[Lifesgud2]

Impressive but not cat2 so fast I think. Maybe tonight.

you were saying?

[JonathanBelles]

WOW! I didnt expect them to go that high either!! yikes!

[RL3AO]

Its clearly a major hurricane. Why are you guys surprised?

[CrazyC83]

WOW! I figured a special advisory, but 100 kt? I can't wait to see more T-numbers.

The intensity forecast may be VERY conservative...

[Frank P]

I bet the pucker pressure is sky high tomorrow for south florida, and rightfully so.. would not be surprise at all to see it in the middle of the 5 day cone late Thursday night

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Its clearly a major hurricane. Why are you guys surprised?

Well alot of the time the NHC will play it safe with a system not bothering any one when there's no recon to say for sure.

[marciacubed]

Do you think Ike has his eye on south Florida?