ATL: IKE Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If that eye clears out and blacks form around it, I think it is possible this could grow into a strong cat4 or weak cat5. OF course we will have to see.

8:20pm est I say this is 105 knot.

No way NHC upgrades to cat 5 without recon, IMO

They did so for Felix the second time just before landfall. If the t numbers go to 7.0/7.0 I would think they would.

[jdjaguar]

Finally, a long tracker with a nice, clear eye. None of that interaction bizz. It's like having a clear night to view the pleiades. Was beginning to think Bertha was going to be my only one...

glad you are enjoying his rapid development.

some of us in harms way would rather it dissipate.

As it stands now...I may be looking at a CAT 4 for either my location, or more urgently, my mother who lives out on a barrier island.

I too get excited over theses Canes..weather is in my blood...but lets not forget the terrible toll they exact.

It is my sincerest hope that Ike spins up to CAT 5 to satisfy the watchers and fishes out...

[fasterdisaster]

I like Isaac and Ingrid.

Edit: Damn I forgot Irene.

Iris and Isabel?

and Ivan, which also suddenly intensified like this one day east of the islands.

Isidore too guys.

[WmE]

If that eye clears out and blacks form around it, I think it is possible this could grow into a strong cat4 or weak cat5. OF course we will have to see.

8:20pm est I say this is 105 knot.

No way NHC upgrades to cat 5 without recon, IMO

They did so for Felix the second time just before landfall. If the t numbers go to 7.0/7.0 I would think they would.

Edit: No not with Dean. sorry

[Just Joshing You]

I was under the impression that Dvorak isn't as accurate with smaller storms, and usually under-estimates the strength, so a T-Number of 6.5 would be closer to a 7.0?

[Smurfwicked]

I know we're far away from this but any thoughts on the likelihood of this entering the GOM? Just trying to make a comparison to where Hanna is currently located which seems rather close to where Ike's computer models end (for now) and Hanna's projected path is going into the Georgia & Carolina's.

Not a shot.. Trough will pick him up.

Anybody else care to comment on this? As everybody is now saying more stronger = more west now.

edit: Is that trough even going to still be there or be as strong when it gets anywhere close to it?

[miamijaaz]

If it maintains its current speed and ends up hitting SE Florida, looks like it would strike between 3 and 6 am as a category 4-5. Sounds familiar. This **** better recurve.

[captain east]

If it maintains its current speed and ends up hitting SE Florida, looks like it would strike between 3 and 6 am as a category 4-5. Sounds familiar. This **** better recurve.

Do you mean Monday or Tuesday?

[Bgator]

Can a pro met let me know if this RI means a more westerly track or a northerly track?
I know its tends to be north usually, but doesnt it just depend on the current steering currents.

[Hurricane Mac]

If it maintains its current speed and ends up hitting SE Florida, looks like it would strike between 3 and 6 am as a category 4-5. Sounds familiar. This **** better recurve.

Don't even want to think about that storm down here in Miami... Let's not mention his name yet.. but local news will probably use it thurs/fri if track hold up like it is currently.

[Jevo]

Finally, a long tracker with a nice, clear eye. None of that interaction bizz. It's like having a clear night to view the pleiades. Was beginning to think Bertha was going to be my only one...

glad you are enjoying his rapid development.

some of us in harms way would rather it dissipate.

As it stands now...I may be looking at a CAT 4 for either my location, or more urgently, my mother who lives out on a barrier island.

I too get excited over theses Canes..weather is in my blood...but lets not forget the terrible toll they exact.

It is my sincerest hope that Ike spins up to CAT 5 to satisfy the watchers and fishes out...

I dont know where your location is, but considering there are barrier islands from the Keys to Cape Cod that could be anywhere. Trufully everyone from Bermuda to the GOM may be looking at a storm of any size (Ike in this case) to their location or that of their loved ones

I think the excitment on the boards you are seeing is in direct relation to the science and the intrest behind these phenominae... Nobody is by any means -removed- a major storm anywhere at this point. I think the discussion is focusing on comparasion of this storm to other history makers in the past.

[miamijaaz]

If it maintains its current speed and ends up hitting SE Florida, looks like it would strike between 3 and 6 am as a category 4-5. Sounds familiar. This **** better recurve.

Do you mean Monday or Tuesday?

Tuesday early morning. If it were Monday early morning, then we would just have to call it ****** II.

[miamijaaz]

If it maintains its current speed and ends up hitting SE Florida, looks like it would strike between 3 and 6 am as a category 4-5. Sounds familiar. This **** better recurve.

Do you mean Monday or Tuesday?

Tuesday early morning. If it were Monday early morning, then we would just have to call it ****** II.

Edited after I realized I said his name.

[RL3AO]

They did so for Felix the second time just before landfall. If the t numbers go to 7.0/7.0 I would think they would.

Thats different in my opinion. Recon had just been in there showing a strong category 4. Then it got better organized so they upped to 140kt.

[Bocadude85]

If it maintains its current speed and ends up hitting SE Florida, looks like it would strike between 3 and 6 am as a category 4-5. Sounds familiar. This **** better recurve.

Do you mean Monday or Tuesday?

Tuesday early morning. If it were Monday early morning, then we would just have to call it Andrew II.

relax this most likely will not hit miami as a cat 4 or 5

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

The eye is starting to clear out again!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

SHOCKING. That is rapid intensification. I was floored when I saw
this hit Category 3 on TWC.
That will ENHANCE THE RIDGE to the north, more west path,
this is not good.

[RL3AO]

Isabel 2.0?

PS: Isabel as in intensity and size and not annular per say.

[jlauderdal]

If it maintains its current speed and ends up hitting SE Florida, looks like it would strike between 3 and 6 am as a category 4-5. Sounds familiar. This **** better recurve.

since you have it narrowed down to a 3 hour time period for landfall can you let me know if it will hit broward,dade or palm beach so i can prepare accordingly, thanks

[miamijaaz]

If it maintains its current speed and ends up hitting SE Florida, looks like it would strike between 3 and 6 am as a category 4-5. Sounds familiar. This **** better recurve.

since you have it narrowed down to a 3 hour time period for landfall can you let me know if it will hit broward,dade or palm beach so i can prepare accordingly, thanks

No need to be a jerk. I'm just going by the map on weather underground. I'll post it in a second if you'd like.