ATL: IKE Discussion

[gatorcane]

I got news for you gang. If that track holds anyone in Florida from Tampa to the south better start thinking. Many parts of the West Coast did not fare to well when these storms crossed the state and if a Cat 4 hit in SE Florida and crossed the state it would not lose much steam when it got up here.

That has to be the most horrific of tracks and intensity forecasts I've seen in ages.

The implications are mind boggling.

Well I as in Davis Islands in Tampa, FL when Frances passed through -- it brought gusts to 70mph -- knocked out power for 1-2 weeks. I could not imagine if something stronger came through.

STill no need to be catastrophic plenty of time for recurve.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think Ike may suck in some of Hanna's moisture and continue
hauling west based on the ridge that is steering both systems...
but I am no expert

I don't think even the experts can guess the (potential) Fujiwhara on this. Ike and the ridge might just push Hanna out of the way faster as the total affect.

Hanna has that massive monsoon trough-like feature going for it.

Yeah, I don't understand why, as I'm not a meteorologist, but I think the synoptics are kind of complicated right now and won't really go as you would normally think they would. Usually, if I see a northward heading tropical storm right out in front, and a hurricane coming up behind it, I think the hurricane recurves well east of where the tropical storm is going north. That doesn't seem like it's going to be the case this time.

The ridge north of Ike is expanding very rapidly, keeping Ike moving very fast
and Hanna gaining forward motion on the ridge periphery (western periphery)
which is forecasted to expand further west and thus the big threat to the Bahamas/US/N.
Carib.

[MortisFL]

I got news for you gang. If that track holds anyone in Florida from Tampa to the south better start thinking. Many parts of the West Coast did not fare to well when these storms crossed the state and if a Cat 4 hit in SE Florida and crossed the state it would not lose much steam when it got up here.

That has to be the most horrific of tracks and intensity forecasts I've seen in ages.

The implications are mind boggling.

John, remember Charley...the track didnt budge that much for days until it was showtime. But your right, the implications are concerning.

[gatorcane]

I got news for you gang. If that track holds anyone in Florida from Tampa to the south better start thinking. Many parts of the West Coast did not fare to well when these storms crossed the state and if a Cat 4 hit in SE Florida and crossed the state it would not lose much steam when it got up here.

That has to be the most horrific of tracks and intensity forecasts I've seen in ages.

The implications are mind boggling.

John, remember Charley...the track didnt budge that much for days until it was showtime. But your right, the implications are concerning.

Have you thought that maybe there is a good chance Ike recurves east of Florida at the last second (aka Floyd)?

Threat to Carolinas is equally as high also.

I'm leaning towards a recurve in the Bahamas at this time

[Patrick99]

I got news for you gang. If that track holds anyone in Florida from Tampa to the south better start thinking. Many parts of the West Coast did not fare to well when these storms crossed the state and if a Cat 4 hit in SE Florida and crossed the state it would not lose much steam when it got up here.

That has to be the most horrific of tracks and intensity forecasts I've seen in ages.

The implications are mind boggling.

Exactly, just like the East Coast did not fare too well when Wilma crossed the state. Well, the black line is basically pointing right at me, which, admittedly, usually means that that is where it's NOT going to hit, especially 5 days out. But yeah, Ike has me spooked.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I got news for you gang. If that track holds anyone in Florida from Tampa to the south better start thinking. Many parts of the West Coast did not fare to well when these storms crossed the state and if a Cat 4 hit in SE Florida and crossed the state it would not lose much steam when it got up here.

That has to be the most horrific of tracks and intensity forecasts I've seen in ages.

The implications are mind boggling.

John, remember Charley...the track didnt budge that much for days until it was showtime. But your right, the implications are concerning.

The NHC track nailed Gustav's landfall 5 days out...so if their 5 day track nails Ike...that would be very scary.
I'm floored by how rapid Ike has intensified. It looks like a category 4 now.
I am going to check hurricane plans, and so should everyone.

[boca]

What makes people think Ike will recurve with a strong high in place.

1. Hanna causing a weakness which would cause Ike to move NW instead of west.
2. A trough moving into the eastern US.
3. Moving SW into Hispanola and derupting the flow causing it to slow than move north.

I don't think those senario's will play out except for Hanna creating a weakness which extends down thru the caribbean.

[MortisFL]

I got news for you gang. If that track holds anyone in Florida from Tampa to the south better start thinking. Many parts of the West Coast did not fare to well when these storms crossed the state and if a Cat 4 hit in SE Florida and crossed the state it would not lose much steam when it got up here.

That has to be the most horrific of tracks and intensity forecasts I've seen in ages.

The implications are mind boggling.

John, remember Charley...the track didnt budge that much for days until it was showtime. But your right, the implications are concerning.

Have you thought that maybe there is a good chance Ike recurves east of Florida at the last second (aka Floyd)?

Absolutely, I dont discount anything when it comes to these things.

[gatorcane]

I got news for you gang. If that track holds anyone in Florida from Tampa to the south better start thinking. Many parts of the West Coast did not fare to well when these storms crossed the state and if a Cat 4 hit in SE Florida and crossed the state it would not lose much steam when it got up here.

That has to be the most horrific of tracks and intensity forecasts I've seen in ages.

The implications are mind boggling.

John, remember Charley...the track didnt budge that much for days until it was showtime. But your right, the implications are concerning.

The NHC track nailed Gustav's landfall 5 days out...so if their 5 day track nails Ike...that would be very scary.
I'm floored by how rapid Ike has intensified. It looks like a category 4 now.
I am going to check hurricane plans, and so should everyone.

Well I wouldn't be surprised if this is the best Ike will ever look, not saying Ike won't be a major farther west but how can you look better than that!

[jaxfladude]

Start of bad joke
Gator fans in SoFL may want to let the Hurricanes(UM football) win the game this weekend over your beloved Gators or else Ike may throw a major temper tantrum...
End of bad joke...
In all seriousness I hope Ike becomes a Fish storm before even nearing anyone....Prayers sent upwards for a miracle...

[Weatherboy1]

no need to panic yet here in FL. We're still 5-6 days out, roughly, from any potential landfall. Models could change quite a bit between now and then. Some of the more west models (CMC, EURO) show a FL threat. Others start the recurve before Ike reaches FL (NOGAPS, GFDL), while still others show a complete recurve or sharp turn well east of the coast (GFS, UKMET). So it's just a watch and wait time now. As we all know, the models aren't incredibly accurate beyond a 3 or 4 day time frame.

[Frank P]

I got news for you gang. If that track holds anyone in Florida from Tampa to the south better start thinking. Many parts of the West Coast did not fare to well when these storms crossed the state and if a Cat 4 hit in SE Florida and crossed the state it would not lose much steam when it got up here.

That has to be the most horrific of tracks and intensity forecasts I've seen in ages.

The implications are mind boggling.

John, remember Charley...the track didnt budge that much for days until it was showtime. But your right, the implications are concerning.

The NHC track nailed Gustav's landfall 5 days out...so if their 5 day track nails Ike...that would be very scary.
I'm floored by how rapid Ike has intensified. It looks like a category 4 now.
I am going to check hurricane plans, and so should everyone.

Gustav 5 days out... NHC was right on

[wxman57]

http://img371.imageshack.us/img371/3811/ikefx1.jpg

So does the track continue to bend WNW to NW after day 5 or does it continue towards the Keys and into the Gulf?

I believe it's the beginning of a NNW-N turn that may or may not clip the FL peninsula.

[MortisFL]

:uarrow:
Start of bad joke
Gator fans in SoFL may want to let the Hurricanes(UM football) win the game this weekend over your beloved Gators or else Ike may throw a major temper tantrum...
End of bad joke...
In all seriousness I hope Ike becomes a Fish storm before even nearing anyone....Prayers sent upwards for a miracle...

Haha Gators better not lose to the "Canes" Dont want the season to be over this early for them.

[gtalum]

Gustav 5 days out... NHC was right on

That's pretty rare, though. Isn't the average 5 day error something like 300 miles?

[cycloneye]

We have a sports forum where you can discuss all about sports.

[gatorcane]

http://img371.imageshack.us/img371/3811/ikefx1.jpg

So does the track continue to bend WNW to NW after day 5 or does it continue towards the Keys and into the Gulf?

I believe it's the beginning of a NNW-N turn that may or may not clip the FL peninsula.

so a cone shift at the 11PM advisory showing more of a bend away from Florida? That would be great

[Frank P]

Gustav 5 days out... NHC was right on

That's pretty rare, though. Isn't the average 5 day error something like 300 miles?

not for Gustav... I guarantee it was not 300 miles, probably less than 50 or so..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

*********NOT OFFICIAL************

I am just scared. That's all I have to say. I mean look at this thing,
easily a category 4 on the infrared at 150 mph visual guess.

***********NOT OFFICIAL**************

[boca]

Anything at this point is a possiblity this isn't a cut n dry forecast. Hanna's weakness is a possibility of recurvature.I'll pay more attention if its entering the Bahamas 300 miles away from S Fl and still moving w or WNW.