ATL HANNA: Extratropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

[baitism]

Is Hanna strong enough to create any upwelling that might affect Ike?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Interesting view ughhh http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ft.html

[cpdaman]

Is Hanna strong enough to create any upwelling that might affect Ike?

yup especially in the bahamas

not sure how much

but look at the loop (and the waters wont' have much time to "rebound")

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... /athhp.gif

[cpdaman]

The 11PM Cone is a big shift south, is it not?

nope not that i see

BUT don't let your guard down

from the 11pm NHC hanna discussion

THE TRACK
MODELS ARE NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH.

[skufful]

The 11PM Cone is a big shift south, is it not?

nope not that i see

BUT don't let your guard down

from the 11pm NHC hanna discussion

THE TRACK
MODELS ARE NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH.

Well, let's see, Georgia is back in the cone, and the line is alooooot closer to me than the last advisory. Look again at the archive.

[masaji79]

That sure is a sharp bend in Hanna's track

[skufful]

That sure is a sharp bend in Hanna's track

That's kind've my point, and I counting on it!

BTW, maybe the "cone" didn't move all that much, but the line sure did.

[Wannabewxman79]

That sure is a sharp bend in Hanna's track

As was stated before, there is actually a curve there but the forcast points are connected by a straight line. So draw your own curve, I am sure some will put it over their house.

[RL3AO]

Remember guys that it will curve and not just turn that drastically. On that track, it would make landfall in SC and not NC like it appears.

[skufful]

That sure is a sharp bend in Hanna's track

As was stated before, there is actually a curve there but the forcast points are connected by a straight line. So draw your own curve, I am sure some will put it over their house.

Curve or not, it's more west before the turn. Overlay the 8 & 11.

[skufful]

Remember guys that it will curve and not just turn that drastically. On that track, it would make landfall in SC and not NC like it appears.

8pm - NC landfall
11 pm - SC landfall

BTW - thanks for the overlay - you read my mind

[RL3AO]

Remember guys that it will curve and not just turn that drastically. On that track, it would make landfall in SC and not NC like it appears.

8pm - NC landfall
11 pm - SC landfall

BTW - thanks for the overlay - you read my mind

The track didn't shift at all. Both were SC landfall. Its an illusion.

[skufful]

Remember guys that it will curve and not just turn that drastically. On that track, it would make landfall in SC and not NC like it appears.

8pm - NC landfall
11 pm - SC landfall

BTW - thanks for the overlay - you read my mind

The track didn't shift at all. Both were SC landfall. Its an illusion.

Jesus, lets quibble, one's definitely further south (or should I say, closer to my location). I think if you "smoothe" the lines, there is little argument.

[RL3AO]

Jesus, lets quibble, one's definitely further south (or should I say, closer to my location). I think if you "smoothe" the lines, there is little argument.

There. I smoothed them out. Landfall location the same. 11pm track a little further north in the short term. Red line is 5pm, yellow line is 11pm.

[cpdaman]

guys last question before bed

we know that ULL's can be thorns in the side of forecasts as models don't handle them great

is there any way that the Ull sliding WSW to hanna's west could influence her track more in any direction than current models are predicting

we remember fay south of cuba having a ULL dropping to her west and causing her to turn right and accelerate into cuba

any chance the ull to her west causes the same sort of track "surprise" as it gets very close to hanna (on her sw side)

NHC said they had low confidence in the track, but wasn't sure if this was due to the ULL

[skufful]

Jesus, lets quibble, one's definitely further south (or should I say, closer to my location). I think if you "smoothe" the lines, there is little argument.

There. I smoothed them out. Landfall location the same. 11pm track a little further north in the short term. Red line is 5pm, yellow line is 11pm.

I have a Masters in Business from Wake Forest, but I don't how to, but if I did, I would borrow your crayon and smooth them myself. But as far as I am concerned, for me, my wife, three children, two houses, restaurant (emilysrestaurant.com), for some inane reason, I like the 8pm better.

[gatorcane]

guys last question before bed

we know that ULL's can be thorns in the side of forecasts as models don't handle them great

is there any way that the Ull sliding WSW to hanna's west could influence her track more in any direction than current models are predicting

we remember fay south of cuba having a ULL dropping to her west and causing her to turn right and accelerate into cuba

any chance the ull to her west causes the same sort of track "surprise"

NHC said they had low confidence in the track, but wasn't sure if this was due to the ULL

Well you know I posed the same question (and you answered)...I felt better but now you are asking lol...

Well if she came much further west...well that would be a bust in the NHC forecast and all models which are in good agreement...that is won't be coming to FL...

but I am going to watch for more activity than expcted to be on the SW side of the system....since ridging is to the NE of Hanna and the ULL is blowing E to W...I think the dirty side may end up being the west side...

The westward moving "illusion" may be structural changes Hanna is going through at the moment....

[Sanibel]

Looks like the dry-ish air NEXRAD mentioned this morning got around the south side of Hanna.

[UpTheCreek]

I have a Masters in Business from Wake Forest, but I don't how to, but if I did, I would borrow your crayon and smooth them myself. But as far as I am concerned, for me, my wife, three children, two houses, restaurant (emilysrestaurant.com), for some inane reason, I like the 8pm better.

I am wishing them east, farrrr east!

Me? I am going to leave the anxiety of S2K for a good while tomorrow and do final preparations for the possibility of 2 hurricanes, back to back. I hope it's all for naught, but prepare for the very worst and hope for the best!