ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[Bgator]

00z GFS is so far farther west.

[gatorcane]

00z GFS is so far farther west.

yeah I know unfortunately

[Evil Jeremy]

Getting close to the Bahamas and heading westward or WNW at 108 hours. No recurve now, not within 4 days at least. Not good for the SE USA. Remember, the other models generally follow the GFS, so we could see a few other models shift with the GFS.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _096.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _108.shtml

[Bocadude85]

00z GFS is so far farther west.

yeah I know unfortunately

how much farther west

[Ivanhater]

NP Stormcenter...

Check out the 850mb vort, notice the ridge doesnt break down as much

18z



00z

[Ivanhater]

Looks to recurve again with this run, but closer to possibly missing the connection, If the other models are correct and dip Ike more wsw than the GFS indicates, Ike may miss the 1st connection...just something to watch for...

[Bocadude85]

recurves out to sea expect a track shift away from fla at 5am

[Evil Jeremy]

recurves out to sea expect a track shift away from fla at 5am

No way. Not yet. This GFS run was still a little west and south, and we still need to see the other model runs. Florida is by no means in the clear.

[lbvbl]

recurves out to sea expect a track shift away from fla at 5am

No way. Not yet. This GFS run was still a little west and south, and we still need to see the other model runs. Florida is by no means in the clear.

I agree. How often do these models update? And, can someone provide me with a link to these models?

[Evil Jeremy]

recurves out to sea expect a track shift away from fla at 5am

No way. Not yet. This GFS run was still a little west and south, and we still need to see the other model runs. Florida is by no means in the clear.

I agree. How often do these models update? And, can someone provide me with a link to these models?

Each model runs every 6 or 12 hours. The GFS starts the cycle 30 minutes after each advisory comes out, followed by the GFDL and HWRF about 2 hours after that, followed by the rest of the models.

Here is a great link for models: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_09.gif

Here is another one: http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... stormNum=8

[lbvbl]

thanks

[sponger]

No model predicted the Rapid Instensification this evening. Lets get 2 model runs after the noaa gulfsteam goes out.

[Scorpion]

Too close for comfort...

[Scorpion]

CMC:

[Meso]

GFDL 00z run

gfdl maxes at 143kt

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Scorpion]

In 6 days SFL is toast

[Hurrilurker]

GFDL 00z run

gfdl maxes at 143kt

But the starting frame indicates 966 pressure, which surely must be too high, right?

[Meso]

[KWT]

Just seen the ECM, wow what a scary run for the east coast, hits Florida then turns up the coast as a strong hurricane probably hammering much of the Florida coast with its western eyewall before eventually drifting upto NC then heading out to sea...

[stayawaynow]

Just seen the ECM, wow what a scary run for the east coast, hits Florida then turns up the coast as a strong hurricane probably hammering much of the Florida coast with its western eyewall before eventually drifting upto NC then heading out to sea...

Can you please post the link? Thanks