ATL: IKE Discussion

[Philly12]

When Max Mayfield speaks, I listen. He and Met. Trent Aric make a great team.

and what did Max say also im not -removed- just saying most of the time storms turn before hitting fla east coast

He mostly described the margin of error at 5 days explaining that Ike can be anywhere as far south as Cuba, as north as northern Bahammas, or as west as SFL coast.

[njweather]

I know this has been asked already, but is this storm becoming annular?

[gatorcane]

wow Ike is really on the move -- unlike many systems so far this season....I have a feeling Ike is going to come and go in a hurry.

Ike is already NE of the Leewards and soon will be north of them....heading W or WSW according to the latest NHC guidance....

[RL3AO]

I know this has been asked already, but is this storm becoming annular?

No. The eye isn't big enough.

[Bgator]

00z GFS is coming out, looks out to lunch, dissipates the storm in 24 hours.

[gatorcane]

That's funny it dissipated Gustav also when it was near Hispaniola and Jamaica --- its a bogus run again...

[ConvergenceZone]

even if it DID recurve out to sea as it approached Florida, it wouldn't be a fish storm because of the bahamas.....

[ConvergenceZone]

00z GFS is coming out, looks out to lunch, dissipates the storm in 24 hours.

That's why you really can't pay attention to the models right now, they have no clue what this storm is doing...

[gatorcane]

so my prediction is when we wake up in the morning and if Ike's 5 day point is very close to SE Florida or over it... that the concern level will triple here.

or if the 5 day point is comfortably NE of SE FL...say in the NW Bahamas or East of the Bahamas...well the concern will greatly diminish..

In other words, where that 5 day point ends up is going to seriously be the guage of concern here in South Florida at least initially.....

and we see the NHC is careful not to extend out the cone or that 5 day point at all until they have some reasonable confidence.

Frankly I see them nudging it right again for the 5AM advisory....

[Philly12]

00z GFS is coming out, looks out to lunch, dissipates the storm in 24 hours.

That's why you really can't pay attention to the models right now, they have no clue what this storm is doing...

This statement is false... True the GFS is not depicting Ike accurately, but the global synoptic pattern is valid. It's the synoptics that drive the storm, not the other way around.

[fasterdisaster]

Ike either has or is just about to reach its peak. The CDO is beginning to flatten off on the western side and outflow is becoming slightly restricted.

Disagree, at least going off Dvorak his eye is just now becoming clear and very circular. I can see outflow a little restricted, but I honestly can't see any of the CDO flattening. Really he looks like he's still rapidly strengthening to me.

[Bocadude85]

:uarrow:

That's funny it dissipated Gustav also when it was near Hispaniola and Jamaica --- its a bogus run again...

could u post a non java based loop my computer is broken so im forced to use web tv and it does not work with java

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

:uarrow:

That's funny it dissipated Gustav also when it was near Hispaniola and Jamaica --- its a bogus run again...

could u post a non java based loop my computer is broken so im forced to use web tv and it does not work with java

lol, i'm using a nintendo wii. ramsdis works as well cimss and usually the navy nrl site. ssd loops dont, can only see single images.

[lbvbl]

I see the tracks shifting south again because they are yet to take into consideration the RI that has occurred, and the most recent models were based on data from earlier

[ConvergenceZone]

00z GFS is coming out, looks out to lunch, dissipates the storm in 24 hours.

That's why you really can't pay attention to the models right now, they have no clue what this storm is doing...

This statement is false... True the GFS is not depicting Ike accurately, but the global synoptic pattern is valid. It's the synoptics that drive the storm, not the other way around.

True, but with all of the model swings that will more than likely be occuring, you reallly can't get much from them this far out, just a vague idea....After Fay, I learned my lesson about this

[Bocadude85]

:uarrow:

That's funny it dissipated Gustav also when it was near Hispaniola and Jamaica --- its a bogus run again...

could u post a non java based loop my computer is broken so im forced to use web tv and it does not work with java

lol, i'm using a nintendo wii. ramsdis works as well cimss and usually the navy nrl site. ssd loops dont, can only see single images.

LOL I am also forced to use the wii until the computer is fixed nothing like a 46in comp screen with the ability to zoom in on everything

[thetruesms]

I clearly made a mistake to pay attention to other things this evening The last advisory I saw was the 21Z

[fci]

so my prediction is when we wake up in the morning and if Ike's 5 day point is very close to SE Florida or over it... that the concern level will triple here.

or if the 5 day point is comfortably NE of SE FL...say in the NW Bahamas or East of the Bahamas...well the concern will greatly diminish..

In other words, where that 5 day point ends up is going to seriously be the guage of concern here in South Florida at least initially.....

and we see the NHC is careful not to extend out the cone or that 5 day point at all until they have some reasonable confidence.

Frankly I see them nudging it right again for the 5AM advisory....

I see some waffling back and forth until we get closer than 5 days out.
My money is on what the Pro Mets here think.
There is obviously some feeling that the NHC will not adjust tracks 3-5 days out too radically while some of the Pro Mets will tell us what THEY are seeing and are not tied to "continuity" or the fear there will be over-reactions to massive changes in the "official" tracks.

I did not live here when Floyd threatened but remember advising my Mom that he was going to miss South Florida while there were Hurricane Warnings up for SE Florida. I did a little memory refreshing by re-reading the Advisories and DIscussions for Floyd and how the Public Advisories continued to present an eyewall affecting the Florida coast while the discussion clearly stated the turn was happening.

AFM's assessment of a "Floyd" type track 100 miles either way is a frightening prospect given possible similarities in intensity between Ike and Floyd.

Finally, as a native and veteran of many threats to South Florida, I am extremely skeptical of a storm out by 22N and 54W making a beeline west to strike South Florida without taking the famous turn to the NW and N. Seems WAY too far out in the Atlantic to go 25 degrees West and only a few North.

Good night all, looks like some late ones in the next few days for Floridians....

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My unoffical thinking of its strength is around 125 knots. 1# Deep reds in a thick band all the way around the eye. 2# Clearing eye. This is close to as good as Gastav was at its peak.

I believe it is almost at its peak because of Hanna's outflow starting to flaten the western side.

Gustav at its peak of 130 knots
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... .100pc.jpg


Ike right now or close to now
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/A ... LATEST.jpg


In fact I think that Ike is slightly better rounded, also it has less land to slow down the winds. So it maybe slightly stronger in that area..

[Sanibel]

Because GFDL boosts storms so much it is probably programmed to steer better under deep layered ridges. A strong Ike would go more SW with more exposure to the ridge at different layers.