ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Just seen the ECM, wow what a scary run for the east coast, hits Florida then turns up the coast as a strong hurricane probably hammering much of the Florida coast with its western eyewall before eventually drifting upto NC then heading out to sea...

Can you please post the link? Thanks

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

GFS and UKMO lifting Ike out too quick, whilst the rest of the models including the ECM suggest a curve to the WSW making this a big threat to the Bahamas.

[HURAKAN]

Hanna's inability to get better organized now raises the question, will it now be able to affect Ike's track? Are the models underestimating the ridge? Lets see what happens.

[KWT]

I'd have thought a weaker Hann would leave less of a weakness, still a weakness none the less but in this set-up every little bit makes a difference?

[deltadog03]

Good points Hurrikan....I think with a much weaker Hanna, she will not leave such a weakness behind. Also, might let IKE continue on more of a quiker pace as well.

[jlauderdal]

Good points Hurrikan....I think with a much weaker Hanna, she will not leave such a weakness behind. Also, might let IKE continue on more of a quiker pace as well.

thus my concern posted earlier about this quick pace

[HURRICANELONNY]

Looking at most of the Model runs. It seems there trending north. Which is a good thing for me. Ike is so small and compact it's mostly a 2 county Hurricane in Florida. Sounds like Andrew. Throw the dart. Can you hit the bulls eye.

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL continues to not follow UKMET and GFS.


WHXX04 KWBC 041130
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.4 55.0 290./14.9
6 22.9 56.5 290./14.2
12 23.4 57.7 291./12.5
18 23.7 58.8 284./10.5
24 23.8 60.0 277./11.1
30 23.7 61.3 266./11.5
36 23.5 62.6 260./12.5
42 23.0 64.1 251./14.2
48 22.5 65.4 249./13.8
54 22.1 66.8 253./13.0
60 21.5 68.3 251./15.2
66 21.1 69.5 248./12.1
72 20.6 70.6 246./10.9
78 20.4 71.5 259./ 8.6
84 20.3 72.3 259./ 7.5
90 20.2 72.9 262./ 6.2
96 20.2 73.6 274./ 6.1
102 20.5 74.3 293./ 7.9
108 21.0 75.0 304./ 7.6
114 21.4 75.7 304./ 7.6
120 22.2 76.4 315./10.5
126 22.9 77.2 312./10.2

[Vortex]

6Z GFDL very concerning for folks in South florida. Further SW then the 00z run and implies a direct hit or very close to the SE Florida coastline.

[Evil Jeremy]

It should be noted that while the 06z GFS still showed recurve, it was further west than last time, close to the Bahamas.

[KWT]

The GFDL is curving towards the NW but its such a big threat to the Bahamas if the GFDL is right and its going to be a very close call in terms of Florida...

Should be noted the GFDL nearly hits Cuba as well on its sharp WSW/SW dive.

[caneman]

Yowsa, here is the GFDL run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[caneman]

Here is the 06 HWRF run based on Hannah but I think you can see the implication with IKE>

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

with Hanna so weak now...in fact I'm not sure we can see its even a storm.

That may have huge implications to this weakness.

My track reasoning as shifted west unfortunately for Ike

[HURAKAN]

I think the 06z GFS should be thrown in the garbage. It has a very shallow Ike to begins with.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Althought GFS Shows Ike as a Tropical wave...LOL

It is much further west this run with it taking Ike to the Central Bahamas before recurving..

It also looks like it puts Josephine in the Carribean?

[KWT]

The GFDL seems to be showing a track that would be a very severe threat to the Bahamas and the NW motion, unless it leads to a recurve suggests Ike would at least get close enough to Florida to cause some issues.

Also Haiti would take a big hit as would NE Cuba, I dare say those islands would limit Ike a touch until it was clear from that region.

[Vortex]

6Z Nogaps further sw and across Cuba implying a GOM threat

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008090406

[jlauderdal]

06z GFDL continues to not follow UKMET and GFS.


WHXX04 KWBC 041130
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE IKE 09L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 4

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 22.4 55.0 290./14.9
6 22.9 56.5 290./14.2
12 23.4 57.7 291./12.5
18 23.7 58.8 284./10.5
24 23.8 60.0 277./11.1
30 23.7 61.3 266./11.5
36 23.5 62.6 260./12.5
42 23.0 64.1 251./14.2
48 22.5 65.4 249./13.8
54 22.1 66.8 253./13.0
60 21.5 68.3 251./15.2
66 21.1 69.5 248./12.1
72 20.6 70.6 246./10.9
78 20.4 71.5 259./ 8.6
84 20.3 72.3 259./ 7.5
90 20.2 72.9 262./ 6.2
96 20.2 73.6 274./ 6.1
102 20.5 74.3 293./ 7.9
108 21.0 75.0 304./ 7.6
114 21.4 75.7 304./ 7.6
120 22.2 76.4 315./10.5
126 22.9 77.2 312./10.2

interesting since gfdl uses some gfs data, that track right there will keep charlie crist up at night