ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jlauderdal]

I think the 06z GFS should be thrown in the garbage. It has a very shallow Ike to begins with.

ortt sniffed out this gfs situation yesterday afternoon so lets see what he says today about it

[Meso]

Here's the HWRF for Ike

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

Here's the HWRF for Ike

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

NW Bahamas East of FL....

[caneseddy]

What concerns me a bit is the 5:00 am discussion, in which they stated their track is a compromise of all the models, with the GFS being the most NE and the Euro the westernmost, but they were leaning towards the Euro solution, which has Ike making landfall in SFL and then going up the EC.

Not panicking yet since it is still too early. This weekend is going to be interesting here in SFL me thinks

[HURAKAN]

The next 24 hours are going to be critical, especially as we get RECON information by tomorrow. The RECON information should provide us with a better estimate of the future track of Ike.

[deltadog03]

Well, I think the wildcard in all of this is hanna. I am really have serious doubts that she can even come close to hurricane strength. Like WXman said, looks hybrid. With that said notice how GFDL closes the gap very quickly and basically blocks ike in longer. No doubt, this will curve, just depends on timing (as usual).

[KWT]

Most models are getting into better agreement with regards of the track upto the Bahamas, after that there is still significant disagreement with regards to the track, the GFS sharply recurves still whilst the ECM plows WNW towards Florida before fully recurving.

[ronjon]

Ike is going to be a very close call for FL - with such a powerful storm I think its tough to forecast now where it will go after 5 days. Review of this mornings models shows direct hits on Miami or SF from the 06Z NOGAPs, 00Z Euro, 00Z CMC and an extrapolated hit from the 06Z GFDL. 06Z HWRF is in the NW Bahamas while UKMET and GFS take a weak system and recurve it NE prior to FL. I looked at the 500 mb pattern out 5-6 days from the Euro - it places the main core of the jet stream running from a low in the desert SW running northeast to the US-Canada border - which implies some ridging over the east coast. The unknown in the track forecast, however, is the weakness left behind by Hanna - which is forecast to be filled quickly by high pressure. The models right now weaken the high that drives Ike SW in 4-5 days (probably due to Hannas track up the east coast). So, will that high weaken as much as some models predict? Will Ike "pump up" the ridging as it maintains major hurricane status? I think the track after 5 days can go either way now - recurving just off the east coast of FL or plowing right into S FL on a W-NW or NW motion. A third option, which seems remote now, would be stronger ridging that pushes Ike through the straits into the GOM. We'll be watching.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 041219
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1219 UTC THU SEP 4 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IKE (AL092008) 20080904 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080904 1200 080905 0000 080905 1200 080906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.0N 56.4W 24.3N 58.6W 24.9N 60.2W 25.1N 61.8W
BAMD 23.0N 56.4W 23.6N 58.8W 23.5N 61.2W 22.7N 63.6W
BAMM 23.0N 56.4W 24.2N 58.7W 24.7N 60.6W 24.5N 62.4W
LBAR 23.0N 56.4W 24.0N 59.3W 24.6N 62.2W 24.6N 65.3W
SHIP 120KTS 108KTS 88KTS 76KTS
DSHP 120KTS 108KTS 88KTS 76KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080906 1200 080907 1200 080908 1200 080909 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.0N 63.9W 25.5N 68.5W 26.4N 73.5W 27.0N 78.0W
BAMD 21.6N 66.1W 20.1N 70.2W 20.0N 72.0W 22.6N 72.5W
BAMM 24.0N 64.4W 23.4N 68.5W 23.9N 71.7W 26.1N 74.3W
LBAR 24.0N 68.6W 22.5N 74.5W 20.0N 78.9W 19.6N 80.0W
SHIP 71KTS 78KTS 81KTS 86KTS
DSHP 71KTS 78KTS 81KTS 86KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.0N LONCUR = 56.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 21.8N LONM12 = 53.3W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 20.6N LONM24 = 50.4W
WNDCUR = 120KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 105KT
CENPRS = 938MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 90NM

[stormie]

Well, I think the wildcard in all of this is hanna. I am really have serious doubts that she can even come close to hurricane strength. Like WXman said, looks hybrid. With that said notice how GFDL closes the gap very quickly and basically blocks ike in longer. No doubt, this will curve, just depends on timing (as usual).

Would the effect of Hanna being stronger lend itself towards an earlier recurve of Ike? That's how I'm interpreting things, but I don't know if my understanding is too simplistic, so I was just wondering.

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

(It's a short 48 hour run)

But notice how at present the Ukmet has Hanna a lot stronger than Ike. I recall Derek saying yesterday a stronger system would head more West. If you look at the image in 48 hours, the Ukmet still keeps Ike weak (So let's assume that it moves more West due to the strength) Ike would stand a much greater chance of missing the weakness that Hanna would create if the system were to do that.


Edit : For typo

[KWT]

Well the models now back in total disagreement again, the Nogpas and GFDL have shifted back south, HWRF is about the same as before, whilst the UKMO and GFS lift this out quicker then the rest but are slowly coming inline with the WSW motion...

I still favor the ECM however, which is only a little SW of the NHC track.

[Frank2]

Glad to see that weakness - it's seems that Ike might not even reach the EC, as a one or two OCM's mentioned this morning...

This reminds me in some ways of Hurricane Floyd (1999) - some thought it'd make it as far west as Florida, but, it recurved just prior to the coast...

P.S. We'll see what's left of the season once the present systems leave the map and the cycle changes to a less favorable pattern - there are already strong indications of an early Fall, so...

[CronkPSU]

so SHIPS shows continued weakening over the entire period even into the Bahamas??

[Frank2]

I believe it was SHIPS that showed Ike to dissipate entirely a few days ago, per what TWC mentioned on Monday...

Well, per the TCD, 30 knots of shear are forecast over the system, so, that's pretty strong...

Let's hope so - many down here were becoming very stressed over the past few days at the thought of having a major hurricane heading this way, considering we already dealt with Fay and Gustav over the past two weeks...

[KWT]

Mes, thats the key, the models like GFD and UKMO are clearly not getting the strength of the system correct and a stronger system will no doubt mean a WSW motion.

Frank, depend on what model you believe, the GFDL, Nogaps and ECM all suggest this will get far to close for comfort...

[Sanibel]

I see the extrapolation of 06ZGFDL as missing Florida and staying offshore.

[robbielyn]

I believe it was SHIPS that showed Ike to dissipate entirely a few days ago, per what TWC mentioned on Monday...

Well, per the TCD, 30 knots of shear are forecast over the system, so, that's pretty strong...

Calling for an early season cancel again frank? There's frank being frank again lol. Hope you are right, could use some cooler weather here in tampa

[Frank2]

Sure, that's me - eventually it'll come true - even if it is January...

LOL

[Philly12]

I see the extrapolation of 06ZGFDL as missing Florida and staying offshore.

Not the best way to determine future track. Besides, putting mu ruler on the last 2 plots extrapolates to a direct hit in Dade County