ATL: IKE Discussion

[gatorcane]

and looking at Hanna in this WV loop, that ridge is quite strong...

it even looks like Hanna is getting shoved WNW with time now albeit as a sheared and a pathetic looking system.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[KWT]

A Donna track is certainly possible still, esp if the trough that is set to create the weakness takes a little longer to get down then forecasted, though as of now I'm actually Floyd type track is quite possible.

Ike appears to be heading 285, motion should continue for the next 6hrs before a slow bend to the west and eventually WSW.

[KWT]

cpdaman, indeed heat content is lower but at the foward speed Ike will be moving at that won't make such a huge difference and the waters will have a good 3-4 days to increase again, however it may well prevent Ike getting upto an Andrew type strength...we hope!

[gatorcane]

cpdaman, indeed heat content is lower but at the foward speed Ike will be moving at that won't make such a huge difference and the waters will have a good 3-4 days to increase again, however it may well prevent Ike getting upto an Andrew type strength...we hope!

Hanna did not affect the SW Bahamas or west Bahamas enough and the Gulf stream remains warm..

SSTs in the mid 80s off the coast of Florida and in the Bahamas.

I think upwelling from Hanna would be a minor temporary thing for Ike should Ike head that way....which is not certain yet.

[KWT]

Thats the problem Gatorcane, if it takes a more westerly track then it'll head into pretty much clean waters so to speak which is never a good.

[cycloneye]

Ike holding steady in intensity:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 SEP 2008 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 23:08:00 N Lon : 56:53:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 937.9mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.4 6.3 6.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -27.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Sanibel]

Gatorcane's WV loop shows the ridge wedging in above Ike. That's a firewall as far as Hanna's weakness and any Fujiwhara, which is why they expect a WSW movement I guess.

[KWT]

Agreed Sanibel its getting pretty obvious with Ike being such a strong hurricane its going to have a bigger influence to the WSW by the strong high to its north, how far WSW is a question though?

Cycloneye, if that Dvorak estimate holds the NHC may even up the winds back upto 125kts again.

[fci]

South Florida will be in full panic mode long before Tuesday if this pans out. A evac to Key West might not be such a bad idea!

It would be well before Tuesday if this materializes.
The storm would be here Tuesday.
If the NHC goes with this track; which is about 1 1/2 degrees further west; this weekend will be panic time.

[gatorcane]

South Florida will be in full panic mode long before Tuesday if this pans out. A evac to Key West might not be such a bad idea!

It would be well before Tuesday if this materializes.
The storm would be here Tuesday.
If the NHC goes with this track; which is about 1 1/2 degrees further west; this weekend will be panic time.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Still I keep leaning on a recurve east of Florida...my confidence has lowered some today but still leaning on this track for Ike....

we are not at the panic stage yet

[GeneratorPower]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Looking at the expanding convection on the north and south sides, it looks like the overall wind field is expanding. I think that's why the intensity has leveled off for now. You've got pretty strong convection in that expansion, too, it's not just cirrus outflow.

It's a little sluggish on the western side convection wise, compared with the north and south sides. However I wonder if that has something to do with the tremendous forward speed. This thing is really hauling. Actually on the last few frames of AVN IR it looks like a bit of expansion on the western side, too, however.

A storm this strong will very likely be more responsive to the ridge to the north compared to a weaker, shallower system. We have had some folks on here comment on this already. Hanna is really getting out of the way now, too, so it remains to be seen what happens with the final point of curvature.

I think the NHC deserves trust in the 5-day forecast position. They have been off by like 50-100 miles on the 5 day track for many systems in recent memory. Not too shabby. I also want to point out the reason why the NHC doesn't give a 6 or 7 day forecast track. It's because the cone would be like 1,000 miles wide (virtually useless level of uncertainty), i.e., little if any skill at the forecast.

Thanks everybody!

[Lifesgud2]

Still I keep leaning on a recurve east of Florida...my confidence has lowered some today but still leaning on this track for Ike....

we are not at the panic stage yet[/quote]
well the GFS solution of a recurve NE of Bahamas....can be tossed.

I'm leaning on the ECMWF solution more with a more west track.

So which is Gator???? Where are you on this? In the middle.

[Jessie]

Sabanic and others in Mobile area ---
I just called the radio station and learned that Dr. Williams also comes on 92.1 FM each afternoon at 4:51 and 5:52 ---- so we can listen to his update this afternoon

[HURAKAN]

Millions await as a bad pimple travels across the face of the Earth.

[Sanibel]

Nope. Didn't come in south of trop points. Right on NHC track still.

Not to add to the stress but this is a very powerful hurricane right now with a stadium eye and maybe another intensification burst going on right now. The west core has filled out nicely in the last hours.

[KWT]

GeneratorPower, very good points. The main thing to remember is the high is strong to the north, its likely to go WSW, though the stronger the system the more it will go down and the longer this motion will last.

Ike still looking quite the beast today, still showing signs of shear though but only light for now and its not going to stop it from staying steady, or maybe even slightly strengthening again. I wouldn't be surprised if this is 125kts again...

[gboudx]

I posted this on the Hanna Recon Discussion thread, since there isn't a thread for Ike yet. Can someone clarify that time information displayed in A, C and E.


2. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 DEPART AT 05/0800A FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0109A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A IKE
C. 05/1530Z
D. 24.0N 62.6W
E. 05/1700Z TO 05/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[canes04]

When I see the WSW motion start tomorrow then I will become more concerned.
The media hype has already started in SFL. I'm sure by Saturday it will be at a fever pitch.

Hopefully the Dolphins/Jets game won't be cancelled on Sunday.
Everyone be safe and prepaired!!!!!

[Brent]

I posted this on the Hanna Recon Discussion thread, since there isn't a thread for Ike yet. Can someone clarify that time information displayed in A, C and E.


2. HURRICANE IKE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 43 DEPART AT 05/0800A FOR A
RESEARCH MISSION 0109A IKE. SFC TO 8,000 FT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0209A IKE
C. 05/1530Z
D. 24.0N 62.6W
E. 05/1700Z TO 05/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

18z is 2pm ET, that is the scheduled center fix.

1530z is 11:30am ET, that is when the plane is scheduled to takeoff and head for the storm.

E is the amount of the time the plane will be in the storm(1pm to 5pm ET).

[gatorcane]

Still I keep leaning on a recurve east of Florida...my confidence has lowered some today but still leaning on this track for Ike....

we are not at the panic stage yet

well the GFS solution of a recurve NE of Bahamas....can be tossed.

I'm leaning on the ECMWF solution more with a more west track.

So which is Gator???? Where are you on this? In the middle.[/quote]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Recurve East of Florida by about 75-100 miles...more west than my last night forecast. Bahamas at higher risk.