ATL IKE: Models Discussion

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miamijaaz
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Re: Re:

#601 Postby miamijaaz » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:04 pm

Brent wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Latest HWRF takes the NHC office in MIami out of commission


They made it through Andrew(without missing an advisory) and have an even stronger office now.


But not before their wind meter on the building in front of UM registered a 164 mph wind gust before being knocked out of commission.
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#602 Postby Meso » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:05 pm

I saved an image from earlier this morning cause I had a feeling the models would do this... here is a comparison of the models from this morning to now.

EARLIER TODAY
Image


LATEST IMAGE
Image
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gatorcane
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#603 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:05 pm

I'd say there is good consensus on a SE FL hit with the latest guidance envelope...at the moment.

Note it may change down the road though but now is a good time to review hurricane preparation plans if you live in Florida especially Southern FL -- even if Ike does not hit.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#604 Postby rtd2 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:06 pm

JPmia wrote:I understood the NHC building was built for Cat 4-5 winds? I think that wiki article might be innaccurate? I don't have time to double check.






I believe those walls are 10" thick pours and would be fine in cat 5 winds...I was concerend about the water (non issue according to others) I thought the numbers in wiki article seemed low
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Re:

#606 Postby miamijaaz » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:08 pm

gatorcane wrote:I'd say there is good consensus on a SE FL hit with the latest guidance envelope...at the moment.

Note it may change down the road though.


The question is, does the NHC purposefully slow down Ike again or sound the first alarm. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#607 Postby Typhoon_Willie » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:08 pm

Yeah the latest model consensus would not be a good scenario for South Fla Gatorcane.
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#608 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:10 pm

The NHC isn't going to slow it down unless there is a lack of agreement between the models.
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Re: Re:

#609 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:11 pm

miamijaaz wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I'd say there is good consensus on a SE FL hit with the latest guidance envelope...at the moment.

Note it may change down the road though.


The question is, does the NHC purposefully slow down Ike again or sound the first alarm. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision.


No my prediction is the 5 day forecast point will be just offshore SE FL....maybe by about 25-50 miles...nudged a bit SW of the current forecast point but not much.

They probably won't mention Southern FLorida in the discussion quite yet though...NHC is going to want to see a few more model runs to solidify the trends.

Personally I'm not quite sold on Southern FL just yet....
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:12 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#610 Postby bucman1 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:11 pm

Where would it go after hitting S. Fla ?
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#611 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:12 pm

Current trend puts it in Gulf.


Blend of GFDL, HWRF, and NHC track are bad for Florida.
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#612 Postby ktulu909 » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:16 pm



Thats the same Euro that had Gustav roaring on as a Cat 4 or 5 and had Hannah hot on its trail to finish off New Orleans.I have a hard enough time trusting any model from 5 days out,I dont think Ill put alot into a model that is 10 days out.
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sweetpea
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#613 Postby sweetpea » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:17 pm

Sanibel wrote:Current trend puts it in Gulf.


Not what I wanted to see. Hopefully this will all change and stay off the coast of FL. My husband just called me to find out what is going on, he is a construction manager and they are starting to decide what they may have to do with some of the projects they have going on here.
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#614 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:22 pm

I wonder if Wxman is still calling for a recurve east of the Bahamas...and well east of Florida given the latest model trends?

I haven't seen him on the board much today.
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Re:

#615 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:I wonder if Wxman is still calling for a recurve east of the Bahamas...and well east of Florida given the latest model trends?

I haven't seen him on the board much today.

I dont blame him , I was leaning on a recurve before fla now today that seems less likely
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#616 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:25 pm

EURO was the 1st to send it up EC and the 1st back to GOM....I am a EURO guy and I must admit it hasn't been the best this season.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#617 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:27 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:EURO was the 1st to send it up EC and the 1st back to GOM....I am a EURO guy and I must admit it hasn't been the best this season.

Yeah , the next Euro might target South America :lol:
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#618 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:31 pm

the key is the trends with all the guidance this afternoon are west.
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Re: ATL IKE: Models Discussion

#619 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:32 pm

Sanibel...Please enlighten me with the latest trend.
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CronkPSU
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Re:

#620 Postby CronkPSU » Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:33 pm

Meso wrote:I saved an image from earlier this morning cause I had a feeling the models would do this... here is a comparison of the models from this morning to now.

EARLIER TODAY
Image


LATEST IMAGE
Image



can you keep a running track of these for us and post them every so often...i find it very useful
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