ATL: IKE Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 011300.GIF

Very easy to see the turn to the west.

[jlauderdal]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

More westward lately?

looks like it could miss the next forecast point slightly to the south but more importantly we should start to see a move to the wsw early tomorrow morning around 2 am according to nhc track, this is a key move looking forward as to if it makes the move which the models agree on and will it be early or later than forecast and how far wsw it goes before coming back wnw...roller coaster here on the track, if it stays consistently left than gfdl is looking good

[canetracker]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 011300.GIF

Very easy to see the turn to the west.

Nice loop Hurrakan. Looks west on that loop and on the floaters.

[Vortex]

18Z Nogaps very similar to GFS with a NW bahamas hit then turn North

[KWT]

Yep agreed looks like its bent back west a touch sooner then was forecasted by the NHC ,right now it doesn't make a huge deal of difference however we have to see, I guess the WSW motion won't be too far away, I'd guess maybe 12hrs or so?

[Over my head]

Yes....I meant on into the Gulf as in Texas

Or even cross completely over Florida and keep on going.

You wish...chances of that are probably close to nada

Wish? Not hardly. Even in the general vicinity is a horror. I'd love to take that nada to the bank.

[Vortex]

awaiting the 18z gfdl and hwrf to see if trends our similar to gfs/nogaps

[HURAKAN]

Shear is forecast to be almost none-existent from 48 hours from now and onward.

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *     GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING         *
                    *         IKE  AL092008  09/04/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)       25    27    30    32    29    25     9     7     5     9     3     6     1

[Sanibel]

My relative in Miami that I evacuated to for Charley is borderline hysterical. Her husband is away on business. This is a perfect ***** of a track if it happens because I want to go fetch her but could end up stuck there. Even worse the exit track to take her over here isn't of any help. It's good to try to prevent panic but there's no doubt the possible track is a possible civil emergency for south Florida. I hope some unexpected weakening occurs.

[jlauderdal]

18Z Nogaps very similar to GFS with a NW bahamas hit then turn North

i believe that is a slight shift to the east for the navy

[KWT]

Quite probably will be vortex...they always follow GFS to a certain extent though obviously they have higher resokution so may be more latched onto the deep steering currents. GFS looks just like the Great Bahamas 1932 hurricane I mentioned in the chatroom...

Anyway seems like Ike is heading west now, so the most vital stage of Ike's motion starts now it seems...

[SouthFLTropics]

When will evacuations be for Dade if needed do you guys think? Sunday morning?

at the latest especially if we continue to have this model consensus, remember this is a major so an evacuation is much larger than what we have seen recently

When looking into an EOC's dictionary of nightmares this has got to be one of them. A major cane approaching South Florida and running North to Northwest up the state. Lots of people will need to be evacuated. I would expect the anxiety will reach a fever pitch by Sunday morning unless the models change. South Florida may finally get the opportunity to implement the Contra Flow plans that they have had in place for years but have never used. The Turnpike North of Fort Pierce all the way to North of Orlando will be all Northbound.

SFT

[DESTRUCTION5]

18Z Nogaps very similar to GFS with a NW bahamas hit then turn North

i believe that is a slight shift to the east for the navy

Exactly the same

[HURAKAN]

Can we believe the GFS when in 24 hrs it almost dissipates Ike before reforming it again. Furthermore, the model begins once again with Hanna stronger than Ike.



Sorry, another to throw to the garbage.

Link: http://tc.met.psu.edu/

[Vortex]

and the anxiety builds as we await for the gfdl/hwrf

[jlauderdal]

Shear is forecast to be almost none-existent from 48 hours from now and onward.

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *     GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING         *
                    *         IKE  AL092008  09/04/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)       25    27    30    32    29    25     9     7     5     9     3     6     1

saw a report from the bahamas, they were all boarded up from hanna and based on that shear analysis good thing they are planning to remain boarded up

[KWT]

Shear is forecast to be almost none-existent from 48 hours from now and onward.

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *     GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING         *
                    *         IKE  AL092008  09/04/08  18 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)       25    27    30    32    29    25     9     7     5     9     3     6     1

Very interesting...BUT...do we really believe there is 25kts of shear over Ike with Ike showing a nearly perfect CDO of convection in the inner core and only a slight disposition of the outflow?

[cycloneye]

Latest pic at 7:15 PM EDT: Nice ring around eye.

[BOPPA]

My relative in Miami that I evacuated to for Charley is borderline hysterical. Her husband is away on business. This is a perfect ***** of a track if it happens because I want to go fetch her but could end up stuck there. Even worse the exit track to take her over here isn't of any help. It's good to try to prevent panic but there's no doubt the possible track is a possible civil emergency for south Florida. I hope some unexpected weakening occurs.

Sanibel - I know it will be a little better here - if track holds - for bringing your relative
over. BUT - won't we be getting a lot here too??? Am in a quandry right now as to
how to plan. Know we are 5 days out - but think preparation and plans are a good
thing right now - right or wrong?

I depend on your postings as we are on the same side of the track (so to speak)

[sphelps8681]

This website was in a post awhile back on models:

http://tc.met.psu.edu/