ATL: IKE Discussion

[Recurve]

Nogaps would be nice. I like that model and it gets dissed so much. A little love for nogaps please.

Again, GFDL is always the most frightening. Not a scientific assessment, it just always points monsters at me.

Question: What are the cryptic labels on WXman's chart? Isn't the Cuba track GFDL, what's this HWFI and GFNI and NGPI -- interpolated?

[lbvbl]

So what's the general consensus for the 11pm track. Any shifts?

[Sabanic]

I'm just following up to wxman57's post, and the last graphic of the models depicting a move east of Florida......I'm not saying that's going to happen, but it's very possible. It's just that some people seem to think that even if it misses Florida, that means the it will curve out to Sea, and nothing could be further from the truth, especially in the case of Ike.

Exzctly CZ. There is even still the possibility Ike could miss FL to the South. At least the southern most parts. Everyone needs to watch this storm closely, but I know that goes without saying.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow for a storm under 25 to 30kt of shear, this thing looks amazing. Id have put it at about 140 now, based on the ring of red all the way around the center, with a very clear eye. I highly doubt this will weaken to less than a mid-upper cat 3, if at all. This makes me worried for whoever is in the path of this storm 5 days out...I cannot imagine anyone taking this situation lightly.

[ConvergenceZone]

Honestly, I think wxman57's post was a friendly reminder for people I disagree with to stop -removed-... I believe some people on the KHOU forums have noted that Chris tends to harbor that unique sense of humor. Admittedly, it does add a touch of realism in the light of some posters' remarks. Everyone has their unique "methodologies" to express the uncertainties involved in meteorology. In addition, several of the 00Z models (including one of the consensus models) have not shifted away from south FL.

While you can't say that it's going to miss Florida, nobody can say that it's going to hit it either......At the moment, I think it's about a 50/50 split whether it misses Florida or not. All depends just how strong the trough is and how strong Ike is.

[Air Force Met]

I dont know how you could look at these model plots and even mention SoFla being in the clear?

Good grief people. He said "-Monday night"

By monday night Ike is sitting over the Bahamas. We would certainly know by MOnday night.


Some of you people need to understand internet humor....or learn to read between the lines.

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm just following up to wxman57's post, and the last graphic of the models depicting a move east of Florida......I'm not saying that's going to happen, but it's very possible. It's just that some people seem to think that even if it misses Florida, that means the it will curve out to Sea, and nothing could be further from the truth, especially in the case of Ike.

Personally, I believe the bolded portion is slightly misleading. Compare the 18Z dynamic models with 00Z.

18Z:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/18zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

00Z:

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/00zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif

I see no discernible east shift with several models, including the TVCN consensus model. I have only noted east shifts with NOGAPS, the GFDL, and a few others (noted by wxman57)...

[Blown Away]

I'm having a dilemma tonight. There are two theories that use heavily to determine if SFL is going to have a hurricane. I love the "Lushine Dry SFL May Theory" and the "Paul Hebert Box Theory". Obviously Ike is going to blow the Hebert Box by about 4 degrees to the north, but I also feel this could give even more credit to the Lushine Dry SFL May Theory if Ike comes to SFL. So is the Hebert Box theory a bust with Ike or does Lushine get more credit to his Dry SFL May theory.
Hebert Box Info: http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Jim Lushine Thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101251

[HURAKAN]

IKE GOING WEST.

[Recurve]

All the above is hearsay. I didn't read anything about a joke or reminder to stop wcasting. Monday night is when we will know, no?

I'd say there's two camps. One wants to be right about where it's going. The other wants to be wrong about where they're afraid it's going.

[meteorologyman]

Wasn't Ike forecast to weaken during this time frame because it looks like its holding together

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm having a dilemma tonight. There are two theories that use heavily to determine if SFL is going to have a hurricane. I love the "Lushine Dry SFL May Theory" and the "Paul Hebert Box Theory". Obviously Ike is going to blow the Hebert Box by about 4 degrees to the north, but I also feel this could give even more credit to the Lushine Dry SFL May Theory if Ike comes to SFL. So is the Hebert Box theory a bust with Ike or does Lushine get more credit to his Dry SFL May theory.
Hebert Box Info: http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Jim Lushine Thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=101251

You have stated that the dry May theory is flawed, but you suddenly "love" it... heh. I'm not dismissive, but it's a little humorous... I don't believe you can utilize it to point toward a Florida strike, in my personal view.

Hopefully, no one earns the impression that I'm -removed- for a Florida landfall... I'm merely adding some considerations to the debate.

[Recurve]

MiamiensisWx -- what is TVCN, been trying to find out.

GFDL didn't shift much at all, did it -- it's been the cuba coast track for a few runs I thought.

[Air Force Met]

MiamiensisWx -- what is TVCN, been trying to find out.

GFDL didn't shift much at all, did it -- it's been the cuba coast track for a few runs I thought.

Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, NGPI, GHMI, HWRI, and EMXI

[jlauderdal]

IKE GOING WEST.

slightly south of the next forecast point, we should start to see wsw in a few hours

[gatorcane]

well I don't see the NHC shifting the track much north or south at all for the 11PM EST advisory looking at the model consensus tonight.

[jlauderdal]

MiamiensisWx -- what is TVCN, been trying to find out.

GFDL didn't shift much at all, did it -- it's been the cuba coast track for a few runs I thought.

Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, NGPI, GHMI, HWRI, and EMXI

afm i plead ignorance here, what is variable about consensus?

[gtsmith]

well I don't see the NHC shifting the track much north or south at all for the 11PM EST advisory looking at the model consensus tonight.

might they move the end point closer to landfall though...or leave it where it is

[artist]

MiamiensisWx -- what is TVCN, been trying to find out.

GFDL didn't shift much at all, did it -- it's been the cuba coast track for a few runs I thought.

Variable Consensus of AVNI, EGRI, NGPI, GHMI, HWRI, and EMXI

Hanna seems to be at her 06 utc point now. If I am reading it correctly, how could this affect Ike's future track or will it? Thanks for assisting us here and helping keep us sane!

[Cyclenall]

Now that the eye is better defined and convection is getting slightly better organized, I think it's 125 knots again. I see no sign of any ERC. I don't see a reason to keep this at 115 knots, I hope the NHC decides to up it a bit. I can't wait for recon tomorrow.