ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Possible hurricane conditions now mentioned for tuesday on the NWS MIAMI local forecast page

here is tonight's discussion, this seems rather aggressive based on what they have done in the past, maybe there is a higher than average confidence

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
846 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2008

UPDATE
AN AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE
INTO THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND INTO THE EAST COAST FROM
TROPICAL STORM HANNA THIS EVENING. HAVE BUMPED POPS A LITTLE TO
SHOW THIS TREND, HOWEVER CURRENT POPS MAY STILL BE UNDER DONE. MAY
HAVE TO UP POPS AGAIN IF THE PRECIP CONTINUES TO ROTATE IN.

AS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK... NHC'S 5 DAY FORECAST FOR HURRICANE IKE
PLACES THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE MIAMI DADE COAST AND
ANDROS ISLAND DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM HAVE INTRODUCED THE
CORRECT TROPICAL CYCLONE WORDING TO THE FORECASTS AS IT IS NOW
PRUDENT TO DO SO. OF COURSE, BEING THAT THE STORM IS STILL WELL
OUT IN THE ATLANTIC THERE ARE HIGH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF IKE AND ANY INFLUENCE IT MAY HAVE ON SOUTH
FLORIDA'S WEATHER. /TINGLER

[cycloneye]

[HurricaneQueen]

All this talk of Donna is starting to make me nervous!!! Naples and Everglades City and even Ft. Myers were changed forever. It was the beginning of the huge growth spurt in this area as construction teams came in to try to restore some semblance of normal. Naples Bay completely emptied as the leading edge of the eye came in (Word is you could walk across the Bay during this period, if stupid enough). The back of the eye brought all the water and more from the Gulf rushing back in to put everything in sight under water.

It's too soon to buy into any one solution. All we can do is be fully prepared and make evacuation plans, if needed, as dictated by the eventual track of Ike.

Lynn

[miamijaaz]

That's actually a pretty decent consensus from the models 5 or so days out. Threat area seems to be from Key West to Vero Beach.

[meteorologyman]

This is not looking good for any of us in FL, TWC said it could slow down in Bahamas area (Mon/Tues), what could that mean for intensity of this storm strngthen further or weaken, and is that forecasted to slow down?

[Sabanic]

We could also be looking at a double US land fall from Ike. The first is looking more certain unfortunately.

[Brent]

That's a pretty good consensus for 5 days out.

11pm: NHC 5-day position will probably be JUST offshore Miami. 5am will probably have a landfall if the models continue to show similar tracks.

[Ixolib]

11pm: NHC 5-day position will probably be JUST offshore Miami. 5am will probably have a landfall if the models continue to show similar tracks.

Looking at the present outliers, I'm thinking just a smidgen further south - say perhaps a tad ESE of Homestead.

[Canelaw99]

11pm: NHC 5-day position will probably be JUST offshore Miami. 5am will probably have a landfall if the models continue to show similar tracks.

Looking at the present outliers, I'm thinking just a smidgen further south - say perhaps a tad ESE of Homestead.

Not so much liking that idea, thanks though...

[cape_escape]

All this talk of Donna is starting to make me nervous!!! Naples and Everglades City and even Ft. Myers were changed forever. It was the beginning of the huge growth spurt in this area as construction teams came in to try to restore some semblance of normal. Naples Bay completely emptied as the leading edge of the eye came in (Word is you could walk across the Bay during this period, if stupid enough). The back of the eye brought all the water and more from the Gulf rushing back in to put everything in sight under water.

It's too soon to buy into any one solution. All we can do is be fully prepared and make evacuation plans, if needed, as dictated by the eventual track of Ike.

Lynn

Makes me nervouse as well!

I remember a lot of talk about Donna right before Charley! I also heard that the Caloosahatche River was emptied, is that part of the Bay you are referring too? I remember someone posting pics during Charley of people walking across the dry River bed, and I guess some drownd as a result when it came back!

Here's a very interesting link with pictures from Florida'a Hurricane History page
http://www.ibiblio.org/uncpress/hurrica ... donna.html

[AtlanticWind]

If South Fla. is still near the center of the cone on Saturday morning my concern will rise even more. The NHC is pretty good within 3 days on a mature westward moving hurricane.

[Trader Ron]

All this talk of Donna is starting to make me nervous!!! Naples and Everglades City and even Ft. Myers were changed forever. It was the beginning of the huge growth spurt in this area as construction teams came in to try to restore some semblance of normal. Naples Bay completely emptied as the leading edge of the eye came in (Word is you could walk across the Bay during this period, if stupid enough). The back of the eye brought all the water and more from the Gulf rushing back in to put everything in sight under water.

It's too soon to buy into any one solution. All we can do is be fully prepared and make evacuation plans, if needed, as dictated by the eventual track of Ike.

Lynn

I was whacked by Donna when I lived on the water in the Bronx, NY. I lived next to The Coast Guard Station and remember the Hurricane Flags going up at 11:00PM. Long Island Sound was lapping at the side of my parents house.

[Sabanic]

[alienstorm]

00z models 3 recurve east of fla
1 straightline to s. fla
2 south of fla..

nerve racking...

[lbvbl]

What happened to the southernly trend that was occurring?

[Scorpion]

What happened to the southernly trend that was occurring?

The only model that moved north is the NOGAPS, which made other models move with it.

[Sabanic]

What happened to the southernly trend that was occurring?

Looks as of right now we have some rather strong disagreement among the models, but that's normal this far out

[perk]

That southward dive that some here were doubting, i think is starting to materialize.

[gatorcane]

Don't expect much of any shift of the NHC track at 11PM EST looking at the new dynamic model guidance envelope:

[Tropics Guy]

Can someone please research what is the average (in miles) difference or spread between actual landfalling TS & Hurricanes locations from the original NHC forecasted landfalling position from 5 days out (5 day cone) ?
Thanks.....

TG